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风险评估的一般原则


Hazards and risks 危险与风险
• In industry in general...
• Hazards related to EQUIPMENT和设备有关的危险
• Rotating machinery旋转机械 • Electricity电流 • Radiation, EM waves辐射线、波
• The existence of an allowable maximum probability, decreasing function
of severity 容许出现事故的最大可能性,,逐渐减少严重度的作用 • The curve separates two zones..曲线分开了两个区域.
• Example of a person walking along a cliff举一个走
在悬崖边的人的例子
• Hazard危险 = the cliff悬崖 • Risk风险 = person falling off the cliff人掉下悬崖 The hazard is always present, but the risk of falling appears only when
the severity of its consequences = preventive or protective safeguards通过降低发 生事件的可能性或降低事件的严重度控制风险=预防性或保护性安全装置 • Used one after another as an accident (scenario) unfolds, hence the term ‘layers‘ 对于某个事故的假设采取一个安全措施再加另一个安全措施的方法,强化”保 护层”的条件
• Independence 独立性
• A layer that fails must not cause the others to fail
一个保护层的失效一定不能导致另一个失效
• Reliability可靠性
• The more a safeguard is reliable, the more the level of risk is low安全装置越可靠,风险水平越低 • The reliability of a safeguard is expressed by its PFD 安全装置的可靠性是由它的PFD表示的 • Probability of failure on demand of a safeguard安全装置失效的可能性 = number failures
situations in the acceptable risk zone把所有潜在的事故状况 控制在可接受的风险区内
• By eliminating a hazard (the cliff!)通过排除危险(悬崖) = intrinsic safety原
有安全度 • By lowering the probability and / or severitypreventive and / or protective safeguards通过降低可能性或严重性 =预防性或 保护性的安全装置
CHALLENGING BOUNDARIES
Safety and risks 安全与风险
• Our glossary definitions of ‘hazard’ and ‘risk’我们
关于危险和风险的解释
• Hazard危险 = a situation with a certain inherent potential to cause harm to

Layers of protection保护的层次
• Design: equipment, lines, materials adapted to substances and operating
conditions 设计:设备、管线、材料适合于物料和操作条件 • Control system: maintains the process in its normal operating range控制系统:能 够使工艺在正常操作范围 • Safety systems: safeguards 安全系统:安全措施
岩石圈
• Hazards related to HUMAN ACTIVITY和人员活动有关的危险
• Nearby industrial site在工厂附近 • Transport (railways, highways, airports, etc.)运输(公路、高速路,机场等) • People (terrorist attacks, etc.) 人(恐怖分子袭击等)
P
Unacceptable risk zone 不可接受的风险 区域
Acceptable risk zone 可接受的风险区域
S
CHALLENGING BOUNDARIES
Risks and risk reduction 风险和减少风险
• Risk control 风险控制= all potential accident所有潜在的事故
people, the environment and property客观存在的可损害人,环境和财产的因素 • Risk风险 = the assessment of a hazard associating the probability P of an unwanted event occurring and the severity S of its consequences 风险是对引起不期望事件发生的可能性和结果的严重度的危险的评估
Mechanical injury机械伤害 Electrocution触电事故 Injury伤害
• Hazards related to a facility‘s environment与装置环境有关的危险
• Nature-related hazards涉及自然的危险: atmosphere大气圈, lithosphere
• Performing a risk analysis风险分析的实施
CHALLENGING BOUNDARIES
Safety and risks 安全与风险
• What is safety
什么是安全?
Ability of a system to operate without harming people or the environment or damaging property 是一种在运行中不对人员或环境构成伤害或对财产造成损害的 系统能力
CHALLENGING BOUNDARIES
外部应急计划 内部 应急计划 收集系统
保护层
压力释放装置 仪表安全连锁
控制系统连锁 临界点 报警+员工介入
控制系统
工艺报警 员工监督 工艺设计
CHALLENGING BOUNDARIES
保护层Layers of protection
• Main characteristics主要特征
Safety and risks 安全与风险
“零风险不存在”
危险

危险:客观上会对人员及财 产产生 危险的状态。 风险:结合可能发生事件的 概率及其严重性而对危险进 行的评估。

风险
CHALLENGING BOUNDARIES
Safety and risks 安全与风险
• •
不可接受的
危险
预防 / 保护 可接受的
• Opening remarks
• • • •
注释
• Safety is a subjective concept 安全是主观概念 • Don‘t wait for an accident to occur to draw lessons from it: a preliminary
assessment should be made at the design stage不要等到事故后再从中吸取 教训:在设计阶段就应做初评 Minimising risks makes for costly improvements最小化风险有利于重要的改 进: it is important to know if the savings justify the cost involved重要的是知道 节约是否值得 A quantitative approach is essential定量的方法必要的 There is no such thing as zero risk不存在零风险 Which begs the question about the acceptability of a risk关于风险的可接受性 要问哪些问题
风险

预防
保护
CHALLENGING BOUNDARIES

Hazards and risks 危险与风险
• In industry in general.在一般工业里.. • Hazards related to SUBSTANCES和化学物质有关的危险
• • • •
Toxicity, ecotoxicity毒性,生态毒性 Poisoning, pollution中毒,污染 Corrosiveness腐蚀性 Leaks, Burns, 泄漏,烧伤 Biological agent 生物的 Illness疾病 Flammability可燃 F, EG, PS (DD possible)火,可燃气体, 可燃固体(可能的尘爆炸) • Instability, reactivity稳定性,反应性 ET, DD 热爆炸,(可能的尘爆炸)
someone is exposed to the hazard. In other words, when the person ventures along the edge of the cliff 危险总是存在的,但风险只是在有人暴露在危险中、冒险沿着悬崖边走时才 存在
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