此轮暴跌大底在哪大家现在最关心“底”在哪里其实有一个非常客观的参考标准，那就是市场平均静态市盈率。
以史为鉴：1994年325大底，平均市盈率倍、平均股价元。
1996年512大底，平均市盈率倍、平均股价元。
2005年998大底，平均市盈率倍、平均股价元。
由此可见，中国股市的历史大底就在市场平均市盈率15倍左右。
今天，市场平均市盈率为22倍。
说实话，不算太远了。
但市场不会直奔15倍市盈率随即兴起一轮牛市的，其过程会超乎想象的复杂，其时间也会超乎想象的漫长，这便需要我们付出超乎想象的耐心。
我并不艳羡在熊市中大赚特赚的顶尖高手，就像我下围棋从来不曾嫉妒过李昌镐。
我们要承认任何领域都是有天才存在的。
但我不是，你也未必是。
对我来说，熊市不亏就是赢。
将来牛市不翻倍就是亏。
每一次牛熊轮回的理由都是不同的，毕竟历史虽会重演但不会简单复制。
但其最本质的规律却是：市场平均市盈率在20倍左右和60倍左右之间穿梭运动。
这个规律100年内有效。
刚才我回顾了一下历次历史大底，那不妨再回顾一下中国股市几次重要的历史大顶：1997年1510点大顶平均市盈率倍、平均股价元。
1999年1756点中期大顶平均市盈率倍、平均股价元。
2001年2245大顶平均市盈率倍、平均股价元。
2007年6124点，沪深两市当天所有股票的平均市盈率是71倍、平均股价元。
虽然我们不能把顶部精确到60倍还是70倍。
但，在60倍以上清仓都是明智之举。
我所能指出的，只能是一个思路，指定出一个顶部区间和底部区间，却不试图精确到一个点。
一亿个股民一亿张嘴，你说2500他说1800，事后看总会有几百万人说对，都是股神未必。
继道指击穿12000点，美股也正式进入了熊市。
至此，全球主要股票市场已经相继步入了熊途。
大势所趋，短时间内难以逆转。
牛市耕田，熊市冬眠。
熊市就作个坚定的空头，牛市就做个坚定的多头。
这个立场不能犹疑和含糊。
大起，就是牛市，我们应该做的就是满仓不畏震荡。
大落，就是熊市，我们应该做的就是空仓不为利诱。
另外，我认为当前影响大底还有个重要因素，那就是大小非，其对股市的冲击同样不可小视未来各月大小非解禁规模(2008-06-30 15:23:19)标签：备忘未来各月大小非解禁规模统计显示，今年7月份共有62只个股解禁，约亿股，市值150亿元。
其中，中联重科、金地集团、锦州港三只个股以解禁市值计名列三甲，分别解禁16亿元、14亿元和12亿元市值的个股。
8月份共有84只个股解禁，约229亿股，市值2088亿元。
其中，仅宝钢股份一家便解禁117亿股，市值1153亿元。
经过该次解禁后，宝钢股份将从此进入全流通时代。
另一解禁大户是建设银行，该股8月29日预计将有亿股解禁，市值约302亿元。
不过，这部分股权解禁后，建设银行还有1779亿元限制流通股尚处于锁定状态。
9月份共有33只个股解禁，约10亿股，市值77亿元。
按解禁市值计算，第一名是深圳上市的农产品，解禁9726万股，市值约亿元。
第二名是海南航空，解禁亿股，市值约16亿元。
10月份大小非解禁再度迎来高潮，当月将有43只个股解禁，约278亿股，市值2103亿元。
其中，建设银行将再度解禁191亿股，市值约1167亿元。
第二名是中国石化，有43亿股解禁，市值约556亿元。
第三名是上海汽车，解禁16亿股，市值约136亿元。
11月份共有89只个股参与解禁，共解禁63亿股，市值约590亿元。
按解禁市值计算，泸州老窖、同仁堂、京东方A名列三甲，分别解禁亿股、亿股和亿股，市值约137亿元、39亿元、37亿元。
12月份共有81只个股解禁，共解禁100亿股，市值1311亿元。
其中上交所的中海发展解禁亿股，市值321亿元，名列第一。
第二名中兴通讯解禁亿股，市值约157亿元。
第三名唐钢股份解禁亿股，市值137亿元。
业内人士认为，考虑到解禁股的滞后效应，8月份和10月份是未来半年中的两次解禁高峰，它们对市场的影响可能在9月份和11月份集中释放。
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