Basra, the second-largest city
in Iraq, could be mostly
underwater by 2050. If that
happens, the effects could be felt
well beyond Iraq’s borders,
according to John Castellaw, a
一项最新研究显示，到2050年， 海平面上升影响的人口可能是此 前预计的三倍之多，世界上一些
research, threatening to 大型沿海城市将面临消失殆尽的
all but erase some of the 威胁。
world’s great coastal
cities.
The authors of a paper published Tuesday
剧该地区的社会和政治不稳定，从 而引发武装冲突、增加恐怖袭击的
Climate and Security, a research 可能性。”卡斯特洛中将表示。他
and advocacy group in
目前任职于气候与安全中心顾问委 员会，后者是一个位于华盛顿的研
Washington.
究和游说团体。
“So this is far more than an environmental problem,” he said. “It’s a humanitarian, security and possibly military problem too.”
retired Marine Corps lieutenant
general.
Further loss of land to
rising waters there “threatens to
drive further social and political
instability in the region, which
developed a more accurate way of calculating land
elevation based on satellite readings, and found that
the previous numbers were far too optimistic. The
In Thailand, more
than 10 percent of
citizens now live on land
that is likely to be
inundated by 2050,
compared with just 1
percent according to the
Hale Waihona Puke earlier technique. The
In other places, the migration caused by rising seas could trigger or exacerbate regional conflicts.
在其它地方，海平面上升引起的人口迁徙可 能引发或加剧区域冲突。
到2050年，伊拉克第二大城市巴士拉的绝大 部分可能位于水下。退役海军陆战队中将约 翰·卡斯特洛表示，如果这种情况真的发生， 其影响范围可能会远超伊拉克边界。
“所以这远不只是一个 环境问题，”他说， “它还涉及到人道主义 和安全问题，以及可能 带来的军事问题。”
Rising Seas Will Erase More Cities by 2050, New
Research Shows
新研究：到2050年，海平面上升将抹去更多城市
Rising seas could
affect three times more
people by 2050 than
previously thought, according to new
new research shows that some 150 million people are
now living on land that will be below the high-tide line by midcentury.
在周二发表的一篇论文中，研究者们 开发了一种更精确的、基于卫星读数 的陆地高程计算方法，并发现此前的 数据过于乐观。该新研究表明，到本 世纪中叶，约1.5亿人现在生活的土地 将位于涨潮线以下。
在 泰 国 ， 超 过 10% 的 居 民 现 在
political and commercial 生活的土地很可能在2050年之前被淹
capital, Bangkok, is 没，而据早期技术估测，该比例仅为
particularly imperiled. 1%。作为政治和商业中心的泰国首
都曼谷尤其岌岌可危。
could reignite armed conflict
and increase the likelihood of
terrorism,” said General
巴士拉由于海平面上升而进
Castellaw, who is now on the
一步减少的土地面积，“可能会加
advisory board of the Center for