2040
0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
4
OEM Trends
•Branded Fuel Efficient powertrain technologies •0W-20 and 0W-30 lubes for improved fuel economy •Interest in XW-16 grades •Electrification of powertrains •Advanced transmissions for higher efficiency
‒ Adaptive cruise control, lane departure warning, automated driving
5
Market / Auto Technology / Engine Oil Linkage
Market Driver
Fuel Economy
Emissions
Auto Technology
Turbocharger VVL / Cam Phasing
Diesel Gasoline Direct Injection Smaller Engine/Higher Energy Density
3-Way Catalyst Oil Consumption Diesel Particulate Filters Lean NOx Traps Selective Catalytic Reduction
MBDOE
12
8
Rail Marine Aviation
Light Duty Vehicles
Million
450
Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell
Hybrid
Natural Gas & LPG
Diesel
Gasoline
300
Heavy Duty
4
150
0 2000
2020
Light Duty
Sulfur Phosphorus/Ash
Oxidation / Deposits / Corrosion
Performance
Smaller Engines / Cars Extended Service
Oil Robustness Oil Robustness
Lubricants under more stress than before High performance engines require high performance lubricants
6
GDI Engine Technology
• Increased fuel economy without sacrificing power
• Engine features
‒ Downsizing (Higher power density) ‒ Higher Compression Ratio ‒ In-Cylinder Injection ‒ Turbocharging ‒ Variable valve timing
• Predicted to be 60% of LD production by 2019*
*HIS Global Insight
7
GDI Challenges/Opportunities
GDI Characteristic High Power Density
Turbocharging
In-Cylinder Fuel Injection
MBDOE
10
8
6
4
2
0 2000
2020
United States Key Growth
China Europe OECD India AP OECD
2040
2
Light Duty Vehicles
Global Annual Sales by Type
Million
150
Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell Hybrid Natural Gas & LPG Diesel Gasoline
Biofuels
Oil Perform Deposits / Soot / Wear Fuel Dilution / Soot/LSPI Oxidation / Deposit
Phosphorus Volatility / Viscosity Ash / Fuel Dilution
‒ CVT, DCT, increased AT steps
•Evolving emissions requirements
‒ New regulations include CO2 targets; China moving faster due to air quality concerns
•Alternative mechanical/hydraulic accessories •Continued adoption of alternative fuels •Further development of driver assist systems
Million Cars
750
‘40 ‘25
‘10
500
250
0 OECD* China
India Key Rest of Growth World
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
Light Duty Vehicle Demand
100
50
0 2010
2025
2040
U.S. New Vehicles
Percent
16
Boosted
12
8
4
Hybrid
0 1995
2000
2005
2010
Diesel Elec/PHEV
2015
3
China Transportation Demand & Fleet Shift
Transportation Demand
Engine Oil Technology Solutions
• 3rd China International Automobile Powertrain Summit
• Beijing, China
1
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet and Demand
Global Light Duty Fleet by Region