In process of predicting the status of water resources in Qingdao city in 15 years, we can evaluate the status of water resources in Qingdao city after 15 years by using the evaluation model established as long as we predict the evaluation indexes in future. Therefore, we focus on the establishment of the forecasting model. We use the grey forecasting model to forecast the change of other variables. We get the conclusion by putting the results into the evaluation model. In the process of making the intervention plan, we comprehensively considered the factors which affect the water shortage and put forward the intervention plan. In addition, we analyze the impact of the intervention plan on the local area and the surrounding areas. Then, under the premise of the intervention plan, we use the evaluation model and the forecasting model to project water availability of Qingdao city into the future.
For task five, we analyze from the perspective of the source of the available water, and project the water availability of Qingdao on the basis of intervention plans.
For task three, we use the grey prediction model to predict agricultural production water, industrial water, domestic water, ecological water, exports of virtual water, imports of virtual water, and available water resources quantity of Qingdao in 15 years. By using the evaluation model we get the conclusions: In 2030, Qingdao city is still in a condition of water scarcity, and need to obtain water from the surrounding area. But the economic benefits of per unit water are large, and the utilization ratio is large, as well.
For task four, we design intervention plans from the perspectives of the virtual water trade, the economic performance of water footprint, the physical water footprint, and the source of water. Then we analyze the effects of these plans on the ecosystem and the surrounding areas of Qingdao.
2 Problem analysis
In order to build a model to measure the clean water supply capacity in a region, We introduce the concept of virtual water [1] and water footprint [2] to build the model. The water footprint can be used to measure the direct and indirect water consumption in the process of production. It also can be used to measure the real demand and occupation status of the water resources in a region from the point of view of consumption. We calculate the agricultural production water, industrial production water, residents living water, and ecological environment water by using the virtual water theory. We set up three overall evaluation indexes to evaluate the condition of water resources in a region. These indexes can analyze problems from the points of physical and economic scarcity. According to the UN water scarcity map, the water in Qingdao in China is heavily overloaded, so we select the Qingdao in China to study. We put the relevant data into the model and get the evaluation conclusion of water resources condition in Qingdao.
For task two, we take Qingdao as an example. Qingdao is a serious water scarcity city, located in the eastern part of Shandong Province, China. We put the relevant data of Qingdao city in 2014 into the evaluation model we built in task one, and then get the conclusions: Qingdao is in a condition of water scarcity, the water resources are not enough to meet the needs of its population. In addition, the economic benefit of unit water consumption is not large, the waste rate of water resource is high, and the utilization rate of water resource is low.
For office use only T1 ________________ T2 ________________ T3 ________________ T4 ________________
Team Control Number
53674
Pnly F1 ________________ F2 ________________ F3 ________________ F4 ________________
For task one, a dynamic evaluation model is established by using the theory of virtual water and the water footprint to evaluate the water supply ability of a region. We consider agricultural water consumption, industrial water consumption, ecological and environmental water, domestic water consumption, and the import and export of virtual water in our dynamic evaluation module. We establish five main evaluation indexes to analyze the situation of water supply ability and the water resources in a region.
2016 MCM/ICM Summary Sheet
Analyzing the Water Scarcity Bsaed on the Water Footprint Theory
Abstract