2009．9An effort on the scale of the Apollo mission that sent men to the Moon is needed if humanity is to have a *fighting chance 3of surviving the ravages 4of climate change.The stakes are high,as,without sustainable growth,“billions of people will be condemned 5to poverty and much of civilisation will collapse ”.This is the stark 6warning from the biggest single report to look at the future of the planet —obtained by The Independent on Sunday ahead of its official publication next month.Backed by a diverse range of leading organisations such as Unesco,the World Bank,the US army and the Rockefeller Foundation,the 2009State of the Future report runs to 6,700pages and draws on contributions from 2,700experts around the globe.Its findings are described by Ban Ki -moon,Secretary -General of the UN,as providing “invaluable insights into the future for the United Nations,its member states,and civil society ”.The impact of the global recession is a key theme,with researchers warning that global clean energy,food availability,poverty and the growth of democracy around the world are at “risk of getting worse due to the recession ”.The report adds:“Too many greedy and deceitful decisions led to a world recession and demonstrated the international interdependence of economics and ethics.”Although the future has been looking better for most of the world over the past 20years,the global recession has lowered 人类如果要在气候变化带来的巨大灾难中博得一线生机，就需要付出“阿波罗”登月计划那样一番努力。
这种努力关系重大，因为如果没有可持续增长，“数十亿人将陷入贫困，文明将大举覆灭”。
上述严厉警告出自展望地球未来的一份最大规模的报告。
《星期日独立报》提前拿到了这份将于下月正式公布的报告。
这份《2009未来展望报告》得到了联合国教科文组织、世界银行、美国陆军和洛克菲勒基金会等众多权威机构的支持。
报告长达6700页，由全球2700位专家参与撰写。
联合国秘书长潘基文说，报告的研究结果“为联合国及其成员国以及公民社会的未来”提供了“宝贵的洞见”。
全球经济衰退的影响是报告的一个关键性主题。
研究者们警告称，全球的清洁能源、食物供给、贫困和世界各地民主制度的发展“由于这场衰退而面临恶化的危险”。
报告还说：“贪婪与欺诈成性导致了世界经济的衰退，同时也表明国际社会在经济和伦理道德上的相依共存。
”尽管20年来，世界大多数地区的未来日益光明，全球经济衰退却令今后The Planet 's Future:Climate Change ‘Will CauseCivilisation to Collapse ’地球的未来：气候变化“将导致人类文明的覆灭”Authoritative new study *sets out 1a grim 2vision of shortages and violence —but amid all the gloom,there is some hope too新的权威研究报告展现出资源短缺和暴力肆虐的严酷前景———但在一片晦暗中还存有一些希望By Jonathan Owen科技前沿·反思1.set out 陈列；展开；展现2.grim ［gr I m ］a.无情的；严厉的；严酷的3.fighting chance 需经努力奋斗才能获得成功的机会；可能而不易得到的机会4.ravage ［蘖r覸v I d 廾］n.[常作~s]破坏的痕迹；灾害，灾难5.condemn ［k 藜n 蘖dem ］vt.判（某人）刑（尤指死刑）（to ）6.stark ［st 藁蘼k ］a.严酷的；苛刻的荩荩37Sep.2009English Digest荩荩the State of the Future Index for the next 10years.Half theworld could face violence and unrest due to severeunemployment combined with scarce water,food and energysupplies and the cumulative effects of climate change.And the authors of the report,produced by theMillennium Project —a think -tank formerly part of the *WorldFederation of the United Nations Associations 7—set out anumber of emerging environmental security issues.“The scopeand scale of the future effects of climate change —rangingfrom changes in weather patterns to loss of livelihoods anddisappearing states —has unprecedentedimplications for political and social stability.”But the authors suggest the threats couldalso provide the potential for a positive futurefor all.“The good news is that the globalfinancial crisis and climate change planningmay be helping humanity to move from itsoften selfish,self -centred adolescence to amore globally responsible adulthood.Manyperceive the current economic disaster as anopportunity to invest in the next generation ofgreener technologies,to rethink economic anddevelopment assumptions,and to put the world on course for a better future.”Scientific and technological progresscontinues to accelerate.IBM promises acomputer at 20,000trillion calculations per second by 2011,which is estimated to be the speed of the human brain.Andnanomedicine may one day rebuild damaged cells atom byatom,using nanobots the size of blood cells.But technologicalprogress carries its own risks.“Globalisation and advancedtechnology allow fewer people to do more damage and in lesstime,so that possibly one day a single individual may be ableto make and deploy a weapon of mass destruction.”The report also praises the web,which it singles 8out as“the most powerful force for globalisation,democratisation,economic growth,and education in history ”.Technologicaladvances are cited as “giving birth to an interdependenthumanity that can create and implement global strategies toimprove the prospects for humanity ”.The immediate problems are rising food and energyprices,shortages of water and increasing migrations “due topolitical,environmental and economic conditions ”,whichcould plunge half the world into social instability and violence.And organised crime is flourishing,with a global income 10年的未来展望指数出现下降。