CHAPTER 5: RISK, RETURN, AND THE HISTORICALRECORDPROBLEM SETS1.The Fisher equation predicts that the nominal rate will equal the equilibriumreal rate plus the expected inflation rate. Hence, if the inflation rate increasesfrom 3% to 5% while there is no change in the real rate, then the nominal ratewill increase by 2%. On the other hand, it is possible that an increase in theexpected inflation rate would be accompanied by a change in the real rate ofinterest. While it is conceivable that the nominal interest rate could remainconstant as the inflation rate increased, implying that the real rate decreasedas inflation increased, this is not a likely scenario.2.If we assume that the distribution of returns remains reasonably stable overthe entire history, then a longer sample period (i.e., a larger sample) increasesthe precision of the estimate of the expected rate of return; this is aconsequence of the fact that the standard error decreases as the sample sizeincreases. However, if we assume that the mean of the distribution of returnsis changing over time but we are not in a position to determine the nature ofthis change, then the expected return must be estimated from a more recentpart of the historical period. In this scenario, we must determine how far back,historically, to go in selecting the relevant sample. Here, it is likely to bedisadvantageous to use the entire data set back to 1880.3.The true statements are (c) and (e). The explanations follow.Statement (c): Let = the annual standard deviation of the riskyσinvestments and = the standard deviation of the first investment alternative1σover the two-year period. Then:σσ⨯=21Therefore, the annualized standard deviation for the first investment alternative is equal to:σσσ<=221Statement (e): The first investment alternative is more attractive to investors with lower degrees of risk aversion. The first alternative (entailing a sequence of two identically distributed and uncorrelated risky investments) is riskierthan the second alternative (the risky investment followed by a risk-freeinvestment). Therefore, the first alternative is more attractive to investorswith lower degrees of risk aversion. Notice, however, that if you mistakenly believed that time diversification can reduce the total risk of a sequence ofrisky investments, you would have been tempted to conclude that the firstalternative is less risky and therefore more attractive to more risk-averseinvestors. This is clearly not the case; the two-year standard deviation of the first alternative is greater than the two-year standard deviation of the second alternative.4.For the money market fund, your holding-period return for the next yeardepends on the level of 30-day interest rates each month when the fund rolls over maturing securities. The one-year savings deposit offers a 7.5% holding period return for the year. If you forecast that the rate on money marketinstruments will increase significantly above the current 6% yield, then themoney market fund might result in a higher HPR than the savings deposit.The 20-year Treasury bond offers a yield to maturity of 9% per year, which is 150 basis points higher than the rate on the one-year savings deposit;however, you could earn a one-year HPR much less than 7.5% on the bond if long-term interest rates increase during the year. If Treasury bond yields rise above 9%, then the price of the bond will fall, and the resulting capital losswill wipe out some or all of the 9% return you would have earned if bondyields had remained unchanged over the course of the year.5. a.If businesses reduce their capital spending, then they are likely todecrease their demand for funds. This will shift the demand curve inFigure 5.1 to the left and reduce the equilibrium real rate of interest.b.Increased household saving will shift the supply of funds curve to theright and cause real interest rates to fall.c.Open market purchases of U.S. Treasury securities by the FederalReserve Board are equivalent to an increase in the supply of funds (ashift of the supply curve to the right). The FED buys treasuries withcash from its own account or it issues certificates which trade likecash. As a result, there is an increase in the money supply, and theequilibrium real rate of interest will fall.6. a.The “Inflation-Plus” CD is the safer investment because it guarantees thepurchasing power of the investment. Using the approximation that the realrate equals the nominal rate minus the inflation rate, the CD provides a realrate of 1.5% regardless of the inflation rate.b.The expected return depends on the expected rate of inflation over the nextyear. If the expected rate of inflation is less than 3.5% then the conventionalCD offers a higher real return than the inflation-plus CD; if the expected rateof inflation is greater than 3.5%, then the opposite is true.c.If you expect the rate of inflation to be 3% over the next year, then theconventional CD offers you an expected real rate of return of 2%, which is0.5% higher than the real rate on the inflation-protected CD. But unless youknow that inflation will be 3% with certainty, the conventional CD is alsoriskier. The question of which is the better investment then depends on yourattitude towards risk versus return. You might choose to diversify and investpart of your funds in each.d.No. We cannot assume that the entire difference between the risk-freenominal rate (on conventional CDs) of 5% and the real risk-free rate (oninflation-protected CDs) of 1.5% is the expected rate of inflation. Part of thedifference is probably a risk premium associated with the uncertaintysurrounding the real rate of return on the conventional CDs. This impliesthat the expected rate of inflation is less than 3.5% per year.7.E(r) = [0.35 × 44.5%] + [0.30 × 14.0%] + [0.35 × (–16.5%)] = 14%σ2 = [0.35 × (44.5 – 14)2] + [0.30 × (14 – 14)2] + [0.35 × (–16.5 – 14)2] = 651.175σ = 25.52%The mean is unchanged, but the standard deviation has increased, as theprobabilities of the high and low returns have increased.8.Probability distribution of price and one-year holding period return for a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond (which will have 29 years to maturity at year-end):Economy Probability YTM Price CapitalGainCouponInterest HPRBoom0.2011.0%$ 74.05-$25.95$8.00-17.95% Normal growth0.508.0100.00 0.008.008.00 Recession0.307.0112.2812.288.0020.289.E(q) = (0 × 0.25) + (1 × 0.25) + (2 × 0.50) = 1.25σq = [0.25 × (0 – 1.25)2 + 0.25 × (1 – 1.25)2 + 0.50 × (2 – 1.25)2]1/2 = 0.8292 10.(a) With probability 0.9544, the value of a normally distributedvariable will fall within 2 standard deviations of the mean; that is,between –40% and 80%. Simply add and subtract 2 standarddeviations to and from the mean.11.From Table 5.4, the average risk premium for the period 7/1926-9/2012 was:12.34% per year.Adding 12.34% to the 3% risk-free interest rate, the expected annual HPR for the Big/Value portfolio is: 3.00% + 12.34% = 15.34%.12.(01/1928-06/1970)Small BigLow2High Low2HighAverage 1.03% 1.21% 1.46%0.78%0.88% 1.18%SD8.55%8.47%10.35% 5.89% 6.91%9.11%Skew 1.6704 1.6673 2.30640.0067 1.6251 1.6348Kurtosis13.150513.528417.2137 6.256416.230513.6729(07/1970-12/2012)Small BigLow2High Low2HighAverage0.91% 1.33% 1.46%0.93% 1.02% 1.13%SD7.00% 5.49% 5.66% 4.81% 4.50% 4.78%Skew-0.3278-0.5135-0.4323-0.3136-0.3508-0.4954Kurtosis 1.7962 3.1917 3.8320 1.8516 2.0756 2.8629No. The distributions from (01/1928–06/1970) and (07/1970–12/2012) periods have distinct characteristics due to systematic shocks to the economy and subsequent government intervention. While the returns from the two periods do not differ greatly, their respective distributions tell a different story. The standard deviation for all six portfolios is larger in the first period. Skew is also positive, but negative in the second, showing a greater likelihood of higher-than-normal returns in the right tail. Kurtosis is also markedly larger in the first period.13.a%88.5,0588.070.170.080.01111or i i rn i rn rr =-=+-=-++=b.rr ≈ rn - i = 80% - 70% = 10%Clearly, the approximation gives a real HPR that is too high.14.From Table 5.2, the average real rate on T-bills has been 0.52%.a.T-bills: 0.52% real rate + 3% inflation = 3.52%b.Expected return on Big/Value:3.52% T-bill rate + 12.34% historical risk premium = 15.86%c.The risk premium on stocks remains unchanged. A premium, thedifference between two rates, is a real value, unaffected by inflation.15.Real interest rates are expected to rise. The investment activity will shiftthe demand for funds curve (in Figure 5.1) to the right. Therefore theequilibrium real interest rate will increase.16. a.Probability distribution of the HPR on the stock market and put:STOCKPUT State of the Economy Probability Ending Price +Dividend HPREnding Value HPR Excellent 0.25$ 131.0031.00%$ 0.00-100%Good 0.45 114.0014.00$ 0.00-100Poor 0.25 93.25−6.75$ 20.2568.75Crash0.05 48.00-52.00$ 64.00433.33Remember that the cost of the index fund is $100 per share, and the costof the put option is $12.b.The cost of one share of the index fund plus a put option is $112. Theprobability distribution of the HPR on the portfolio is:State of the Economy Probability Ending Price +Put +Dividend HPRExcellent 0.25$ 131.0017.0%= (131 - 112)/112Good 0.45 114.00 1.8= (114 - 112)/112Poor 0.25 113.50 1.3= (113.50 - 112)/112Crash0.05 112.000.0= (112 - 112)/112c.Buying the put option guarantees the investor a minimum HPR of 0.0%regardless of what happens to the stock's price. Thus, it offers insuranceagainst a price decline.17.The probability distribution of the dollar return on CD plus call option is:State of theEconomyProbability Ending Value of CD Ending Value of Call Combined Value Excellent0.25$ 114.00$16.50$130.50Good0.45 114.00 0.00114.00Poor0.25 114.00 0.00114.00Crash 0.05 114.00 0.00114.0018.a.Total return of the bond is (100/84.49)-1 = 0.1836. With t = 10, the annual rate on the real bond is (1 + EAR) = = 1.69%.1.18361/10 b.With a per quarter yield of 2%, the annual yield is = 1.0824, or8.24%. The equivalent continuously compounding (cc) rate is ln(1+.0824) =.0792, or 7.92%. The risk-free rate is 3.55% with a cc rate of ln(1+.0355) =.0349, or 3.49%. The cc risk premium will equal .0792 - .0349 = .0443, or4.433%.c.The appropriate formula is , σ2(effective )= e2 × m (cc ) ×[e σ2(cc )‒1]where . Using solver or goal seek, setting thetarget cell to the known effective cc rate by changing the unknown variance(cc) rate, the equivalent standard deviation (cc) is 18.03% (excel mayyield slightly different solutions).d.The expected value of the excess return will grow by 120 months (12months over a 10-year horizon). Therefore the excess return will be 120 × 4.433% = 531.9%. The expected SD grows by the square root of timeresulting in 18.03% × = 197.5%. The resulting Sharpe ratio is120531.9/197.5 = 2.6929. Normsdist (-2.6929) = .0035, or a .35% probabilityof shortfall over a 10-year horizon.CFA PROBLEMS1.The expected dollar return on the investment in equities is $18,000 (0.6 × $50,000 + 0.4× −$30,000) compared to the $5,000 expected return for T-bills. Therefore, theexpected risk premium is $13,000.2.E(r) = [0.2 × (−25%)] + [0.3 × 10%] + [0.5 × 24%] =10%3.E(r X) = [0.2 × (−20%)] + [0.5 × 18%] + [0.3 × 50%] =20%E(r Y) = [0.2 × (−15%)] + [0.5 × 20%] + [0.3 × 10%] =10%4.σX2 = [0.2 × (– 20 – 20)2] + [0.5 × (18 – 20)2] + [0.3 × (50 – 20)2] = 592σX = 24.33%σY2 = [0.2 × (– 15 – 10)2] + [0.5 × (20 – 10)2] + [0.3 × (10 – 10)2] = 175σY = 13.23%5.E(r) = (0.9 × 20%) + (0.1 × 10%) =19% $1,900 in returns6.The probability that the economy will be neutral is 0.50, or 50%. Given aneutral economy, the stock will experience poor performance 30% of thetime. The probability of both poor stock performance and a neutral economy is therefore:0.30 × 0.50 = 0.15 = 15%7.E(r) = (0.1 × 15%) + (0.6 × 13%) + (0.3 × 7%) = 11.4%。