0.67
0.82
8
需求收入弹性的城乡差异 Difference of income elasticity between urban and rural residents
收入income 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 5 0 15 10 消费量consumption 25 20
人均猪肉消费量per capita pork consumption 人均国内生产总值per capita GDP
城乡差异
The difference of consumption between urban and rural residents.
23 21 19 17 15 13 11 9
19 83 年 19 85 年 19 87 年 19 89 年 19 91 年 19 93 年 19 95 年 19 97 年 19 99 年 20 01 年 20 03 年 20 05 年 20 07 年 20 09 年
猪肉需求价格弹性较低 The price elasticity of pork demand is low
计量模型：Economitric model：
2 ln qit = β 0 + β1 ln xit + β 2 ln xit + β3 ln porkit + β 4 ln eggit + β5 ln chickenit + β 6 ln beef it + β 7 ln muttonit
城镇居民可支配收入与人均猪肉家庭消费量（单位：元、公 斤） the disposable income and per capita pork consumption of urban residents (RMByuan, Kg)
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
-0.68 -0.19 -0.20 0.15 -0.26 -3.16 0.64 0.69 -0.17 -0.59 1.90 0.09 -0.84 0.53 -0.08 -0.82 0.70 0.67
-0.49 0.00 -0.93 0.38 0.95 -0.60 0.78 1.75 2.20 0.13 0.53 0.14 -0.35 1.83 -0.13 -1.60 -0.72 1.20
中国历年人均GDP及人均猪肉消费量（单位：元、kg) Annual per capita GDP and pork consumption in China（RMBYuan, Kg）
5
19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07 20 09
10
计量结果：Economitric results
人均可支配收入与人均猪肉消费量 呈倒U型关系 猪肉消费对猪肉价格的弹性为 -0.2284 鸡蛋对猪肉有一定的替代效应。不显著。 猪肉与鸡肉互补还是替代？
因变量：人均猪肉消费量的对数 Dependant variable: log of per capita pork consumption
主要内容 Outline
目前我国猪肉的消费总量、人均消费及城乡差异 改革开放以来我国猪肉消费的变动特征 我国与世界主要国家的猪肉消费比较 我国猪肉消费的发展趋势
The total pork consumption, per capita pork consumption, and the differences of pork consumption between the urban and rural residents in China. The main characters of pork consumption in China since 1978. The comparision of the pork consumption in China and other countries. The trend of pork consumption in China.
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一、目前我国猪肉的消费总量、人均消费及城乡差异
1. The total consumption, consumption of per capita,
and the difference between the urban and rural residents
消费总量
Total pork consumption in China
农村居民人均纯收入per capita disposable income of rural residents 农村居民家庭人均猪肉消费量per capita pork consumption at home of rural residents
农村居民可支配收入与人均猪肉家庭消费量（单位：元、公 斤）the disposable income and per capita pork consumption 9 of rural residents (RMByuan, Kg)
P值
0.028 0.01 0.071 0.104 0.000 0.509 0.863 0.150 11
随着收入增长，猪肉人均消费支出比重下降，人均消费量先上升后下降
With the increase of the income, the share of per capita pork expenditure decrease and the per capita pork consumption increase and then decrease. 当人均可支配收入为11700元时，猪肉占食品消费支出的13%，此时每年人均支出大约 为550元左右，当人均可支配收入为28800元时，猪肉占食品消费支出7%，此时，每年 人均猪肉支出大约为600元左右。
EUROstat，China Statistical Yearbook， China Livestock Industry Yearbook，China 3 Rural Statistical Yearbook .
中国猪肉进口和出口（单位：万吨） The pork import and export of China（10,000 ton）
中国猪肉消费现状和发展趋势
The current situation and trend of pork consumption in China
王 珺
中山大学岭南学院经济学教授
国家生猪产业技术体系产业经济研究室主任
Wang Jun Professor of Lingnan College, Sun Yat-sen University China Agriculture Research System, swine industry branch
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二、改革开放以来我国猪肉消费的变动特征
2. The main characters of pork consumption in China since 1978.
猪肉需求对收入的弹性较低 The income elasticity of pork demand is low. 猪肉需求对价格的弹性较低 The price elasticity of pork demand is low 随着收入增长，猪肉人均消费支出比重下降，人均消费量 先上升后下降 With the increase of the income, the share of per capita pork expenditure decrease and the per capita pork consumption increase and then decrease.
城镇家庭人均消费per capita pork consumption at home of urban residents 农村家庭人均消费per capita pork consumption at home of rural residents
中国城乡人均猪肉家庭消费量（单位：公斤） Per capita pork consumption at home of the urban and rural residents（Kg）
系数 coefficents
人均可支配收入的对数 Per capita disposable income 人均可支配收入平方项 Square of per capita income 猪肉价格对数 Log of pork price 鸡蛋价格对数 Log of egg price 鸡肉价格对数 Log of chicken price 牛肉价格对数 Log of beef price 羊肉价格对数 Log of mutton price 常数项 Constant 2.4366 -0.1684 -0.2284 0.1802 -0.3233 0.0745 0.0146 -6.5813
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
19 79 19 82 19 85 19 88 19 91 19 94 19 97 20 00 20 03 20 06 20 09
出口,export 进口,import
4
人均消费量
Per capita pork consumption
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 5000 0 20000 15000 10000 30000 25000
7
城镇需求收入弹性 Income elasticity of urban residents