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6-6
6.4 平均会计收益率法
平 净 益 均 收 A R= A 平 投 额 均 资
排序标准和最低可接受标准由管理层确定。 缺点:
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6-13
时间序列问题
$10,000 Project A 0 -$10,000 Project B 0 -$10,000 IRRA=16.04%; IRRB= 12.94%
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CF0 PV0 of CF1-3 NPV = IRR = PI =
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Project A -$200.00 $241.92 $41.92 0%, 100% 1.2096
Project B -$150.00 $240.80 $90.80 36.19% 1.6053
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6-16
6.7 获利指数
未 现 流 的 值 来 金 量 现 PI = 初 投 始 资
最低可接受标准:
PI > 1
排序标准:
选择最高的PI
缺点:
互斥项目时可能出现问题
优点:
当资本有限时格外有用 在评价独立项目时总是正确的
Project A -$200 $200 $800 -$800
ProjectBiblioteka B -$150 $50 $100 $150
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6-19
Example of Investment Rules
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6-2
净现值法则
净现值 (NPV) ＝未来现金流的现值总和＋初始投资 对NPV的估计:
1. 估计未来的现金流：多少？什么时候？ 2. 估计折现率 3. 估计初始投资成本
6-15
计算增量现金流量的IRR
计算项目 “A-B” 或 “B-A”的IRR
Year Project A Project B Project A-B Project B-A 0 ($10,000) ($10,000) $0 $0 1 $10,000 $1,000 $9,000 ($9,000) 2 $1,000 $1,000 $0 $0 3 $1,000 $12,000 ($11,000) $11,000
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CHAPTER
6
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净现值和投资评价 的其他方法
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6-1
6.1 为什么要使用净现值？
接受具有正的净现值的项目 NPV 使用了现金流量 NPV 包含了项目全部的现金流量 NPV 对现金流量进行了合理的折现。
Discount Rate 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32% 36% 40% NPV $100.00 $71.04 $47.32 $27.79 $11.65 ($1.74) ($12.88) ($22.17) ($29.93) ($36.43) ($41.86)
$120.00 $100.00 $80.00 $60.00 NPV $40.00 $20.00 $0.00 ($20.00) -1% ($40.00) ($60.00) Discount rate 9% 19% 29% 39%
6-8
内部收益率: 例子
考虑下面这个项目:
$50 $100 $150
0 -$200
1
2
3
The internal rate of return for this project is 19.44%
$50 $100 $150 NPV = 0 = + + 2 (1+ IR ) (1+ IR ) (1+ IR )3 R R R
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6-9
The NPV Payoff Profile for This Example
如果我们将NPV和折现率所构成的曲线画出来， IRR就是与x轴相交的那一点。
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6-11
多个IRR
这个项目有两个IRR:
$200 0 -$200
NPV $100.00 $50.00 $0.00 -50% 0% ($50.00) ($100.00) ($150.00)
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6-17
6.8 资本预算实务（Graham&Harvey,2001, JFE）
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$1,000
$1,000
1
2 $1,000
3 $1,000 $12,000
1
2
3
6-14
现金流及时性问题
$5,000.00 $4,000.00 $3,000.00 $2,000.00
Project A Project B
NPV
$1,000.00 $0.00 ($1,000.00) 0% ($2,000.00) ($3,000.00) ($4,000.00) 10%
$3,000.00 $2,000.00 NPV $1,000.00 $0.00 ($1,000.00) 0% ($2,000.00) ($3,000.00) Discount rate
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10.55% = IRR
5% 10% 15% 20% A-B B-A
0% = IRR1
Discount rate
6-12
规模问题
你希望你的投资能获得 100% 还是 50% 的收 益率？ 如果 100% 的收益率是对1元钱的投资而言， 而 50% 的收益率是对1,000元钱的投资而言？
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6-21
Relationship Between NPV and IRR
Discount rate NPV for A -10% -87.52 0% 0.00 20% 59.26 40% 59.48 60% 42.19 80% 20.85 100% 0.00 120% -18.93
IRR = 19.44%
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6-10
6.6 IRR 存在的问题
存在多个IRR 规模问题 时间序列问题
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$800 2 3 - $800
1
我们该 用哪一个？
100% = IRR2
50%
100%
150%
200%
优点：
容易理解 侧重于流动性
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6-5
6.3 折现的回收期法
当考虑时间价值时，项目需要多长时间才能 回收初始投资成本？
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6-18
作业：计算
分别计算下面两个项目的 IRR, NPV, PI,和回收期。假 定必要的报酬率为10％。并对这两个项目作出你的选 择。 Year 0 1 2 3
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