Ultra-low Interest Rate:Distributional Effects and Risks超低利率:分配效应和风险1、There is widespread consensus that the conventional and unconventional monetary policiesthat world’s major central banks implemented in response to the global financial crisis prevent ed a deeper recession and higher unemployment than there otherwise would have been. These measures, along with a lack of demand for credit as a result of the recession, contributed to a decline in real and nominal interest rates to ultra-low levels that have been sustained over the past five years.一个普遍的共识是，世界主要央行为应对全球金融危机所实施的常规和非常规的货币政策防止了更严重的经济衰退和更高失业率的发生，否则情况会更糟糕。
这些措施，以及由于经济衰退而缺乏的信贷需求，导致实际利率和名义利率下降到了超低水平，过去五年中一直如此。
2、A new report from the McKinsey Global Institute examines the distributional effects of theseultra-low rates. It finds that there have been significant effects on different sectors in the economy in terms of income interest and expense. From 2007 to 2012, governments in the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States collectively benefited by $1.6 trillion both through reduced debt-service costs and increased profits remitted from central banks (exhibit). Nonfinancial corporations—large borrowers such as governments—benefited by $710 billion as the interest rates on debt fell. Although ultra-low interest rates boosted corporate profits in the United Kingdom and the United States by 5 percent in 2012, this has not translated into higher investment, possibly as a result of uncertainty about the strength of the economic recovery, as well as tighter lending standards. Meanwhile, households in these countries together lost $630 billion in net interest income, although the impact varies across groups. Younger households that are net borrowers have benefited, while older households with significant interest-bearing assets have lost income.麦肯锡全球研究院的一份新报告分析了这些超低利率造成的分配效应。
报告发现从收入利息和费用的角度看超低利率对不同的经济领域有重大影响。
从2007年到2012年，欧元区各国、英国和美国通过债务清偿成本的降低和中央银行汇出的增长利润共同获益1.6万亿美元。
非金融团体，如政府这样的大借款人，因债务利率下降而获益 7100亿美元。
2012年，在英国和美国，超低利率使得公司利润增长了5%，但这并没有转化为更多的投资，原因可能是对经济复苏强度的不确定性，以及更严格的贷款标准。
与此同时，这些国家的家庭共损失了6300亿美元的净利息收入，但这种影响因群体而异。
身为净借款人的年轻家庭从中受益，而拥有重要生息资产的年长家庭则失去了收入。
3、The impact that ultra-low interest rates have had on banks has been mixed. They have eroded the profitability of eurozone banks, resulting in a cumulative loss of net interest income of $230 billion between 2007 and 2012. But banks in the United States experienced an increase in effective net interest margins and a cumulative increase in net interest income of $150 billion. The experience of UK banks falls between these two extremes.超低利率对银行的影响一直是有好有坏。
欧元区银行的收益能力极大受损，致使2007年到2012年之间的净利息收入累计损失达2300亿美元。
与之相反，美国银行收获的却是有效净息差的增长和累计增加的1500亿美元的净利息收入。
英国银行的经历介于这两者之间。
4、Life-insurance companies, particularly in several European countries, are being squeezed byultra-low interest rates, so much so that if this environment were to continue many of these insurers would find their survival threatened.人寿保险公司，尤其是在一些欧洲国家，正受到超低利率的严重挤压，如果这种情况继续下去，许多保险公司将难以生存。
5、Theoretically, ultra-low interest rates may have resulted in higher asset prices, and this effect may have offset lost interest income for households and other investors. But we find a mixed picture.从理论上讲，超低利率可能导致了资产价格的上涨，这种结果可能弥补了家庭和其他投资者损失的利息收入。
但是实际情况却喜忧参半6、Rising bond prices are the flip side of declining yields, and the value of sovereign and corporate bonds in the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States increased by $16 trillion between 2007 and 2012. Investors that mark the value of their assets to market have therefore seen a significant gain on their fixed income investments, at least on paper.债券价格的上升是收益率下降的另一面。
2007年到2012年之间，在欧元区各国、英国和美国，主权债券和公司债券的价值增长了16万亿美元。
将其资产价值调整到市价的投资者因此会看到其固定收益投资大幅上涨，至少在理论上如此。
7、Ultra-low interest rates are likely to have bolstered housing prices by lowering the cost of mortgage credit. This effect is most clearly seen in the United Kingdom, where the majority of mortgages have variable interest rates that have automatically adjusted downward. The impact is less clear in the United States, where the recovery in housing prices has been dampened by an oversupply of housing, high levels of foreclosures, a predominance of fixed-rate mortgages, tightened credit standards, and the prevalence of homes with negative equity whose mortgages cannot be refinanced.超低利率有可能通过降低抵押贷款的成本推高了房价。
这种影响在英国体现的十分清楚，英国大多数抵押贷款的利率是浮动的，可自动向下调整。
而在美国，这种影响不太明显，美国房价的复苏受到以下因素的制约：住房的过剩供应，丧失赎取权的居高不下，固定利率抵押贷款的主导优势，紧缩的信贷标准，以及普遍存在的拥有负资产且不能再融资抵押贷款的家庭。