第二章简单线性回归模型2.1(1)①首先分析人均寿命与人均GDP勺数量关系，用Eviews分析:Depe ndent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/23/15 Time: 14:37Sample: 1 22In cluded observatio ns: 22Variable Coefficie ntStd. Error t -Statistic Prob.C 56.64794 1.960820 28.88992 0.0000X1 0.128360 0.027242 4.711834 0.0001R-squared 0.526082 Mean depe ndent var 62.50000Adjusted R-squared 0.502386 S.D. dependent var 10.08889S.E. of regressi on 7.116881 Akaike info criterion 6.849324Sum squared resid 1013.000 Schwarz criteri on 6.948510Log likelihood -73.34257 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.872689F-statistic 22.20138 Durbin-Wats on stat 0.629074Prob(F-statistic) 0.000134有上可知，关系式为y=56.64794+0.128360x 1②关于人均寿命与成人识字率的关系，用Eviews分析如下:Depe ndent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/23/15 Time: 15:01Sample: 1 22In cluded observatio ns: 22Variable Coefficie ntStd. Error t-Statistic Prob.C 38.79424 3.532079 10.98340 0.0000X2 0.331971 0.046656 7.115308 0.0000 R-squared 0.716825 Mean depe ndent var 62.50000 Adjusted R-squared 0.702666 S.D. dependent var 10.08889 S.E. of regressi on 5.501306 Akaike info criterion 6.334356 Sum squared resid 605.2873 Schwarz criterio n 6.433542 Log likelihood -67.67792 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.357721 F-statistic 50.62761 Durbin-Wats on stat 1.846406 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001由上可知，关系式为y=38.79424+0.331971x 2③关于人均寿命与一岁儿童疫苗接种率的关系，用Eviews分析如下:Depe ndent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/23/14 Time: 15:20Sample: 1 22In cluded observatio ns: 22Variable Coefficie ntStd. Error t-Statistic Prob.C 31.79956 6.536434 4.864971 0.0001X3 0.387276 0.080260 4.825285 0.0001R-squared 0.537929 Mean depe ndent var 62.50000Adjusted R-squared 0.514825 S.D. dependent var 10.08889S.E. of regressi on 7.027364 Akaike info criterion 6.824009Sum squared resid 987.6770 Schwarz criteri on 6.923194Log likelihood -73.06409 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.847374F-statistic 23.28338 Durbin-Wats on stat 0.952555Prob(F-statistic) 0.000103由上可知，关系式为y=31.79956+0.387276x 3(2［①关于人均寿命与人均GDP模型，由上可知，可决系数为0.526082，说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。
对于回归系数的t检验：t(3 1) =4.711834>t 0.025(20)=2.086，对斜率系数的显著性检验表明，人均GDP寸人均寿命有显著影响。
②关于人均寿命与成人识字率模型，由上可知，可决系数为0.716825，说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。
对于回归系数的t检验：t (3 2) =7.115308>t 0.025(20)=2.086，对斜率系数的显著性检验表明，成人识字率对人均寿命有显著影响。
③关于人均寿命与一岁儿童疫苗的模型，由上可知，可决系数为0.537929，说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。
对于回归系数的t检验：t(3 3) =4.825285>t 0.025(20)=2.086，对斜率系数的显著性检验表明，一岁儿童疫苗接种率对人均寿命有显著影响。
22(1)①对于浙江省预算收入与全省生产总值的模型，用Eviews分析结果如下:Depe ndent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/23/15 Time: 17:46Sample (adjusted): 1 33In cluded observatio ns: 33 after adjustme ntsVariable Coefficie ntStd. Error t-Statistic Prob.X 0.176124 0.004072 43.25639 0.0000C -154.3063 39.08196 -3.948274 0.0004R-squared 0.983702 Mean depe ndent var 902.5148Adjusted R-squared 0.983177 S.D. dependent var 1351.009S.E. of regressi on 175.2325 Akaike info criterion 13.22880Sum squared resid 951899.7 Schwarz criteri on 13.31949Log likelihood -216.2751 Hannan-Quinn criter. 13.25931F-statistic 1871.115 Durbin-Wats on stat 0.100021Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000②由上可知，模型的参数：斜率系数0.176124，截距为一154.3063③关于浙江省财政预算收入与全省生产总值的模型，检验模型的显著性:1）可决系数为0.983702，说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。
2）对于回归系数的t检验：t （32) =43.25639>t 0.025 (31)=2.0395，对斜率系数的显著性检验表明，全省生产总值对财政预算总收入有显著影响。
④用规范形式写出检验结果如下：Y=0.176124X —154.3063(0.004072) (39.08196)t= (43.25639) (-3.948274 )R2=0.983702 F=1871.115 n=33⑤经济意义是：全省生产总值每增加1亿元，财政预算总收入增加0.176124亿元。
（2）当x=32000 时，①进行点预测，由上可知Y=0.176124X —154.3063，代入可得：Y= Y=0.176124*32000 —154.3063=5481.6617②进行区间预测：先由分析:由上表可知，_ 2 _ - 2 2 2Be =E ( X —X) =3x(n —1)= 7608.021 x (33 —1)=1852223.4732 2(X f —X) =(32000 —6000.441) =675977068.2当Xf=32000时，将相关数据代入计算得到：5481.6617 —2.0395x175.2325x vf/33+1852223.473/675977068.2 <Yf 哥481.6617+2.0395x175.2325x V1/33+1852223.473/675977068.2即Yf 的置信区间为(5481.6617 —64.9649, 5481.6617+64.9649 )(3) 对于浙江省预算收入对数与全省生产总值对数的模型，由Eviews分析结果如下:Depe ndent Variable: LNYMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/23/15 Time: 18:04Sample (adjusted): 1 33In cluded observatio ns: 33 after adjustme ntsVariable Coefficie ntStd. Error t-Statistic Prob.LNX 0.980275 0.034296 28.58268 0.0000C -1.918289 0.268213 -7.152121 0.0000 R-squared 0.963442 Mean depe ndent var 5.573120 Adjusted R-squared 0.962263 S.D. dependent var 1.684189 S.E. of regressi on 0.327172 Akaike info criterion 0.662028Sum squared resid 3.318281 Schwarz criteri on 0.752726Log likelihood -8.923468 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.692545F-statistic 816.9699 Durbin-Wats on stat 0.096208Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000①模型方程为：In Y=0.980275l nX-1.918289②由上可知，模型的参数：斜率系数为0.980275，截距为-1.918289③关于浙江省财政预算收入与全省生产总值的模型，检验其显著性：1) 可决系数为0.963442，说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。