2016年上海外国语大学专业学位英语口译/笔译初试英语翻译基础（100分）12月26日14:00—17:00

I.Cloze.(共15个空，一空两分，共30分)卷子上的标题是Here’swhythe“Americancentury”willsurviveriseofChinaTheAmericancenturywillsurvivetheriseofChinaJosephNyeMarch25,2015EntropyisagreaterchallengethanChinesegrowth,writesJosephNye

In1941TimeeditorHenryLuceproclaimed“theAmericancentury”.Somenowseethiscomingtoanendas1.aresultofthenation’seconomicandpoliticaldecline.ManypointtotheexampleofUSfailuretoconvinceitsalliestostayoutoftheAsianInfrastructureInvestmentBank,Beijing’srivaltotheWorldBank;butthiswas2.moreanexampleofafaultydecisionthanevidenceofdecline,whichraisesthequestionofwhatisthenaturallifecycleofanation.

Acenturyisgenerallythelimitforahumanorganismbutcountriesaresocialconstructs.Romedidnotcollapseuntilmorethanthreecenturiesafteritreacheditsapogeeofpowerin117AD.AfterAmericanindependencein1776HoraceWalpole,theBritishpolitician,lamentedthathisnationhadbeenreducedtothelevelofSardinia,justasBritainwasabouttoentertheindustrialrevolutionthat3.powereditssecondcenturyasaglobalpower.

AnyeffortatassessingAmericanpowerinthecomingdecadesshould4.takeintoaccounthowmanyearliereffortshavebeenwideofthemark.Itischasteningtorememberhowwildly5.exaggeratedUSestimatesofSovietpowerinthe1970sandofJapanesepowerinthe1980swere.TodaysomeseetheChineseas10fttallandproclaimthis“theChinesecentury”.

China’ssizeandrelativelyrapideconomicgrowthwillbringitclosertotheUSintermsofitspowerresourcesinthenextfewdecades.ButthisdoesnotnecessarilymeanitwillsurpasstheUSinmilitary,economicandsoftpower.

6.EvenifChinasuffersnobigdomesticpoliticalsetback,manyprojectionsaresimplelinearextrapolationsofgrowthratesthatarelikelytoslowinthefuture.7.Moreover,economicprojectionsareonedimensional.TheyignoreUSmilitaryandsoftpoweradvantages,suchasthedesireofstudentsaroundtheworldtoattendUSuniversities.TheyalsooverlookChina’sgeopolitical8.dis-advantagesintheAsianbalanceofpower,comparedwithAmerica’srelationswithEurope,JapanandIndia,whicharelikelytoremainmorefavourable.

ItisnotimpossiblethatachallengersuchasChina,Europe,Russia,IndiaorBrazilwillsurpasstheUSinthefirsthalfofthiscenturybutitisbutnotlikely.

Onthequestionofabsoluteratherthan9.relativeAmericandecline,theUSfacesseriousproblemsinareassuchasdebt,secondaryeducation,incomein?equalityandpoliticalgridlockbuttheseareonlypartofthepicture.Onthepositivesideoftheledgerarefavourabletrendsindemography,technologyandenergyaswellasabidingfactorssuchasgeographyandentrepreneurialculture.

Thescenariosthatcould10.precipitatedeclineincludeonesinwhichtheUSoverreactstoterroristattacksbyturninginwardsandthuscutsitselfofffromthestrengthitobtainsfromopenness.Alternativelyitcouldreactbyovercommittingitself,andwastingbloodandtreasureasitdidinVietnamandIraq.

Asanoverallassessment,describingthe21stcenturyasoneofAmericandeclineisinaccurateandmisleading.ThoughtheUShasproblemsitisnotinabsolutedecline,unlikeancientRome,anditislikelytoremainmorepowerfulthananysinglestateincomingdecades.

TherealproblemisnotthatitwillbeovertakenbyChinaoranothercontenderbutratherthatitfacesariseinthepowerresourcesofmanyothers—bothstatesandnon-stateactorssuchastransnationalcorporations,terroristgroupsandcybercriminals.Anditwillfaceanincreasingnumberofglobalproblemsthatwill11.callonourabilitytoorganisealliancesandnetworks.

12.ContrarytotheviewsofthosewhoproclaimthistheChinesecentury,wehavenotenteredapost-Americanworld.ButtheAmericancenturyofthefuturewillnotlookthesameasinpreviousdecades.TheUS13.shareoftheworldeconomywillbesmallerthanitwasinthemiddleofthepastcentury.

Furthermore,thecomplexitycreatedbytheriseofothercountries,aswellastheincreasedroleofnon-stateactors,willmakeitharderforevenAmerica,thebiggestpower,to14.wieldinfluenceandorganiseaction.EntropyisagreaterchallengethanChina.

Atthesametime,evenwhentheUShaditsgreatestpreponderanceofpowerresources,itoftenfailedtosecurewhatitwanted.Thosewhoarguethatthedisorderoftoday’sworldismuchworsethaninthepastshouldrememberayearsuchas1956,whentheUSwasunabletopreventSoviet15.repressionofarevoltinHungary;ortheSuezinvasionbyouralliesBritain,FranceandIsrael.

Wemustnotviewthepastthroughrose-tintedglasses.Now,withslightlylesspreponderanceandamuchmorecomplexworld,theAmericancenturywillcontinueforatleastafewdecades,butitwilllookverydifferentfromwhenLucefirstarticulatedit.

中国崛起能终结美国世纪吗？美国哈佛大学教授约瑟夫-奈为英国《金融时报》撰稿1941年，《时代》杂志(Time)主编亨利-卢斯(HenryLuce)宣称，“美国世纪”

已经来临。现在有些人认为，随着美国在经济和政治上走向衰落，美国世纪正趋于结束。许多人援引美国未能阻止盟友加入亚洲基础设施投资银行（AIIB，简称：亚投行）作为一个例子——亚投行是中国政府提议创立、与世界银行(WorldBank)争风头的一个机构。但这只能表明一个错误的决定，而不能表明美国已经衰落。这引出一个问题：一个国家正常的生命周期有多长？一个世纪通常是人类机体生存的极限，但国家是社会结构。古罗马在公元117年达到实力的巅峰，但它随后又延续了300多年才解体。1776年美国独立后，