Introductionto Cash Flow Analysis and Real Estate Investing and case study个人房地产投资和现金流分析入门和案例分析Gongfu Wang PhD功夫王博士Fall,2006秋Q University Q大学Department of Get Rich Fast Engineering发财工程系靠房地产发财–亚洲国家的很多富豪都是从事房地产的业务–小的个人投资也可以从房地产入手•最安全，最保险的投资•除了投资以外，可以带来的其它好处•可以获得银行贷款，从而增加回报率RealEstate DoesProvide Many Opportunities房地产投资提供的机会•Adding Value Through:增加价值–Real estate acquisition购买–Development开发–Financing获得投资–Site Analysis地域分析–Controlling Operating Costs经营成本分析–Innovative Marketing市场的开发–Innovative Management科学的管理•No Secret Way To Attain Success不会一夜暴富•Only hard work with good research and systematic analysis需要仔细计算BusinessGoals MightInclude生意的目的•个人投资房地产获得回报的方法：现金流，地产增值•投资地产还能达到其他非财务的目标：–抵抗经济风险–稳定社会FinancialAnalysis DecisionModels财务分析的模型•Single period models uch as单个时间段的模型–Cash on Cash现金对现金–Gross Rent Multipliers租金倍率–Capitalization“Cap”Rate回报率•Multiple period model多个时间段的模型–IRR-Internal Rate of Return内部投资回报率IRRModel内部投资回报率的使用•Multiple period return on investment多个时间段•Calculates the average discount rate that equates all future returns over the projected holding period back to the present value of the initial equity investment用平均利率将所有以后的收益和先期投资折算到现在的价值•Should be used for capital allocation and initial investment decisions在开始投资分析和资本分配时使用TheROI(returnon investment)投资回报率ROI=Income/Cash Investment投资回报=收入/现金投入比如：一处房产，价格￥1，000，000RMB 每年净租金收入￥100，000RMBROI=￥100，000/￥1，000，000=10%ROI(cont.)投资回报率•如果贷款，假设利率=8%，30年房贷，每贷￥10，000，月付￥7.34•贷50%，每年的收入-贷款为：￥55,960–ROI=￥55，960/￥500，000=11.1%•贷75%，每年的收入-贷款为：￥33,960–ROI=￥33，960/￥250，000=13.6%•贷90%，每年的收入-贷款为：￥20,730–ROI=￥20,730/￥100，000=20.7%ROI(cont.)投资回报率•如果考虑升值，情况大不一样–ROI=收入+升值/现金投入•假设不贷款，每年升3%–ROI=￥100，000+￥30，000/￥1，000，000=13%•每年升5%–ROI=￥100，000+￥50，000/￥1，000，000=15%•每年升7%–ROI=￥100，000+￥70，000/￥1，000，000=17%ROI(cont.)投资回报率•如果考虑升值，情况大不一样–ROI=收入+升值/现金投入•贷款50%，每年升3%–ROI=￥55，960+￥30，000/￥500，000=17.2%•每年升5%–ROI=￥55，960+￥50，000/￥500，000=21.2%•每年升7%–ROI=￥55，960+￥70，000/￥500，000=25.2%ROI(cont.)投资回报率•如果考虑升值，情况大不一样–ROI=收入+升值/现金投入•贷款75%，每年升3%–ROI=￥33，940+￥30，000/￥250，000=25.6%•每年升5%–ROI=￥33，940+￥50，000/￥250，000=33.6%•每年升7%–ROI=￥33，940+￥70，000/￥250，000=41.6%ROI(cont.)投资回报率•如果考虑升值，情况大不一样–ROI=收入+升值/现金投入•贷款90%，每年升3%–ROI=￥20，730+￥30，000/￥100，000=50.1%•每年升5%–ROI=￥20，730+￥50，000/￥100，000=70.1%•每年升7%–ROI=￥20，730+￥70，000/￥100，000=90.1%ROI结论•房地产可以用银行的贷款增加投资回报率•如果考虑升值，将大大增加投资回报率•高的贷款，高的风险，高的回报哪些因素影响地产升值•Demographics人口构成•Accessibility交通便利•Job centers工作机会•Services配套设施•Construction建筑品质•Civic pride社区名声ImportantFinancial Ratios其它财务比例•一Used to determinefinancial feasibility –Gross Rent Multiplier租金倍率–Loan to Value(LTV)Ratio贷款和总价比例–Debt Coverage Ratio贷款覆盖率–Breakeven Point收益平衡点–Expense Ratio花销比例–Cash on Cash现金投入和产出回报比例–After Tax Return on Equity税后资产回报–Return on Asset资产回报–Internal Rate of Return内部投资回报–Resale Price出售价格GrossRent Multiplier租金倍率•PurchasePric e over Gross Rent•The lower the better•A very simple comparisonnumber insufficient for anythingbut general screening•租金倍率=购买单价/租金，约低越好，只用于一般审查Leverageand OperatingRatios贷款和经营的比例•Loan to Value Ratio贷款和总价比例•Debt CoverageRatio贷款覆盖率•BreakevenPoint收益平衡点•Expense Ratio花销比例Loanto ValueRatio贷款-总价比例•Measures real estate financial risk •Default risk rises proportionally with the LTV ratio•Typical LTV in the industry is75%Mortgage Loan Balance ------------------------------Purchase Price贷款数量/购买价格衡量投资风险，一般75%DebtCoverage Ratio贷款覆盖率•Must exceed1.0in order for the property to make the mortgage payment•Most lenders require a debt coverage ratio of around1.1to1.3Net Operating Income ---------------------------Debt Service净收入/贷款成本需要超过1.0才能付得起贷款一般要求1.1–1.3BreakevenPoint收支平衡点•Percentage of occupancy that a building must achieve in order to be able to pay all of it’s cash expenses and carry the assumed financing •Normally in the65% to95%range Operating Expenses+ Mortgage Payments ------------------------------Gross Rent经营成本+贷款/毛租金收入一般65%-95%ExpenseRatio花销比例•Used in comparison with other property-alone it tells very little •Should be sufficiently high to keep up the property while not wasting capital on uncontrolled expenses,such as energy costs Operating Expenses-----------------------------Effective Gross Income经营成本/有效毛收入只有与其它投资比较才有用SinglePeriod or“Static”Profitability Measures单个时间的利润计算•Cash on Cash现金对现金回报率•After Tax Returnon Equity税后资产回报•Return on Asset or Going in Cap Rate资产回报Cashon Cash现金对现金比•Measures initial profitability•The higher the better •Typical first year cash on cash return range from4to10percent Before Tax Cash Flow ---------------------------Cash Equity税前现金流/现金资产一般第一年4-10%AfterTax Returnon Equity税后资本回报•Similar to cash on cash•Takes into account tax shelter •Typically range from 5%to12%in the first year After Tax Cash Flow --------------------------Cash Equity税后现金流/现金资本一般5-12%Returnon Asset资本回报•“Cap Rate”•How much debt a property can carry •Overall returns •The higher the return rates,the more debt a property can support •Typical cap rates run from8%to12%Net Operating Income --------------------------------Purchase Price or Value净运营收入/购买价格或价值因该为8–12%MultiplePeriod or“Dynamic”Return Measures多时间段的回报标准•InternalRate of Return(IRR)内部回报率•Consider AppreciationThrough ResalePrice or Refinancing要考虑升值，出售和从新贷款InternalRate ofReturn内部回报率•The most frequently used measurement of projected holding period overall returns•Delivers in one number an investment return that integrates rental growth rates and property value appreciation•Should be compared to the required rate of return •Typical IRRs range from12%to15%,can reach over 20%for new,speculative investments•是一个较长时期持有的通用的衡量手段，把租金收入和地产升值都靠虑进来，应该与需要的回报率挂上钩。