央行下调存款准备金率的原因、背景The central bank lowered the deposit reserve rate reason, background1.与经济发展回落相关:GDP增速从一季度的9.7%下滑到二季度的9.5%和三季度的9.1%。
在国内外的多重压力下,通过货币政策的适当放松达到提振经济,解决就业,稳定职工收入,稳定社会的目的。
1.And economic development: GDP growth rate down from the first quarter of 9.7% down to two in the 9.5% quarter and the three quarter of 9.1%. At home and abroad under the multiple pressures, the appropriate relaxation through monetary policy to boost the economy, solve obtain employment, stable worker income, stabilize social objective2.地方财政债券的发行,挤占了货币流动性的释放,扩大了投资但减少了消费。
扩张性的财政政策和扩张性的货币政策混合使用,使市场利率水平保持稳定,在CPI高位情况下,贷款利率不会作大的松动,否则会使今年的调控(特别是对房价调控)付之东流。
2 .local government bond issuance, misuse of monetary liquidity release, expanded investment but reduced consumption. Expansionary fiscal policy and the monetary policy of outspread sex mix, so that the level of interest rates remained stable, high in the CPI case, loan interest rate not loose, or they will make this Regulation ( especially for price control ) all one's efforts wasted.3.由于欧洲主权债务危机向深度蔓延,我国第一大出口市场进入二战后经济最困难的时期。
从9月份开始,我国出口已连续2个月负增长3 .due to the depth of the spread of European sovereign debt crisis, China's largest export market in the economy after World War II the most difficult period. From the beginning of September, China's export has 2 consecutive months of negative growth目的:Purpose:1. 意在释放流动性1 to the release of liquidity“央行宣布下调准备金率,主要是考虑到当前准备金率实际水平较高、外汇占款减少等导致了银行流动性偏紧,以致银行的信贷投放能力受到了制约。
”交通银行首席经济学家连平指出,准备金率的下调有利于缓解银行流动性压力,促进货币信贷合理增长。
" The central bank cut reserve ratio, mainly taking into account the current reserve rate actual levelis higher, Waihuizhankuan reduction has caused the bank fluidity is tight, so that the bank credit capacity is restricted." The traffic bank chief economist Lianping indicated, reserve rate cut will help ease the liquidity pressure, promote reasonable growth of monetary credit相关数据显示,自2010年起,为应对通胀压力,我国央行连续12次上调了存款准备金率,但一定程度上带来今年以来市场流动性普遍趋紧的局面。
根据央行最新数据显示,10月末我国广义货币(M2)余额81.68万亿元,同比增长12.9%,狭义货币(M1)余额27.66万亿元,同比增长8.4%,货币供应量的同比增速均处于近年来的低点。
此次调整后,大型金融机构存款准备金率为21%,中小型金融机构存款准备金率为17.5%。
上调0.5个百分点后,可释放流动性4000多亿元。
Relevant data shows, since 2010, to deal with the inflation pressure, China's central bank for 12 consecutive times raised the deposit reserve ratio, but to a certain extent bring this year market liquidity generally tight situation. According to the central bank's latest data shows, 10 at the end of China's broad money ( M2 ) balance of 81.68 yuan, grow 12.9% compared to the same period, the narrow money ( M1 ) balance of 27.66 yuan, grow 8.4% compared to the same period, the money supply in the year-on-year growth in recent lows. After this adjustment, the large financial institutions deposit reserve ratio of 21%, small and medium-sized financial institutions to deposit reserve ratio of 17.5%. By 0.5 percentage points, but the release of liquidity, about 400000000000 yuan.2. 传递稳增长信号2.The steady growth of signal transmission相关数据显示,我国经济增速回落的风险正在加大。
目前GDP增速从一季度的9.7%下滑到二季度的9.5%和三季度的9.1%。
同时汇丰银行日前公布的11月中国制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)创出32个月以来最低,折射出中国经济下行风险正在加大。
此外,由于欧洲主权债务危机向深度蔓延,我国第一大出口市场进入二战后经济最困难的时期。
从9月份开始,我国出口已连续2个月负增长。
Relevant data shows, our country economy increases fast fall after a rise risk are increasing. The GDP growth rate from the first quarter of 9.7% down to two in the 9.5% quarter and the three quarter of 9.1%. At the same time, HSBC Bank recently released the November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) 32 months hit the lowest, reflects the Chinese economic downside risk is increasing. In addition, due to the depth of the spread of European sovereign debt crisis, China's largest export market in the economy after World War II the most difficult period. From the beginning of September, China's export has 2 consecutive months of negative growth.3.货币政策是否转向有待观察Whether the monetary policy to be observed对于此次下调是否意味着中国货币政策的转向,专家们普遍持谨慎态度。
“不能把央行下调准备金率理解为货币政策发生了方向性的变化。
10月份的外汇占款减少导致银行体系流动性净流失,而财政收入大幅增加以及其先收后支的特点亦使部分银行出现存款的阶段性减少,因此央行下调准备金率,这只是流动性的对冲政策。
”中央财经大学中国银行业研究中心主任郭田勇判断,考虑到物价尚在高位、结构调整、房地产调控等因素,政策仍需保持稳健。
庄健也认为,相比于此前趋紧的货币环境,此次下调只是货币政策进一步微调的体现,政策是否全面转向还有待观察。
For the cut means China monetary policy change, the experts generally cautious attitude." Can't take the central bank lowered the reserve ratio for monetary policy direction of change. The October foreign exchange led to reduced liquidity in the banking system and financial income net loss, as well as a substantial increase in its collection of the posterior branch of the characteristic is also part of bank deposit phasic decrease, so the central bank lowered the reserve ratio, this just liquidity hedge policy." Central University of Finance and Economics China banking research center director Guo Tianyong judge, taking into account the price still is in perch, structure adjustment, the real estate regulation factors, still need to maintain a prudent policy. Zhuang Jian also believed that,compared to the previous tightening monetary conditions, this decline is the monetary policy further fine-tuning of the embodiment, policy steering remains to be seen whether comprehensive.瑞信亚太区首席经济师陶冬认为,目前国内准备金率指标偏高,准备金率的下调是技术性下调。