Ocean surface wind, sea level and temperature (seasonal cycle included)
预测
6-8 month lead forcasts of Nino 3.4 or 3 SST anomaly
Forecast Nino 3.4 SST anomaly
国家气候中心简化海气耦合模式 ENSO预测系统
初始化过程(NCCo, NCC/STI)
FSU(观测)
NCEP(再分析)
平滑,替代,伴随等 1000hPa,850hPa
热带太平洋模式
全球热带动力模式
集合预报(NCCn,NCC/NJM)
(CAMS/NJU)
合成预报(SSTA,NINO区指数)
模式系统主要组成
2) data from ship logs (pirates, privateers, explorers, etc.) noting unusual sea and weather conditions, sensing unusual sea and air temperatures, sighting displaced continental vegetation, noting displaced marine fauna, etc.,
"In our search of the literature we looked for occurrences of the following nature over the north Peruvian coastal region and its adjacent waters:
1) significant variations on travel times between ports along the coast of Peru (because of the coastal currents and / or winds),
150oE
180oW
150oW
120oW
1998-10 SSTA obs.
90oW
1996.6~1998.3El Nino事件预报
NINO3指数检查
(超前3和6个月预报距平相关系数)
模式名
ACC 模式名 ACC
LDEO1
-0.38 NCCo
0.88
89
BMRC
0.70 NCC/STI 0.85
模式特征
高学杰等 OSU/NCC
4度X5度,L2,60m
宋永加等 NCC/IAP
T63L16,L30T63
赵其庚等 HCM1POGCM/SA SA,L20 1X1
HCM2IPOGCM/SA SA,L31 1X1
HCM3APIOGCM T63L16,L30T63
李清泉等 NCCo,NCCn, NCC/STI, NCC/NIM,CAMS/NJU
集合与集成 钱维宏,邓毅,李清泉 加权平均,多元回归
预报与检验 李清泉等全体 热带太平洋,NINO3指数
距平相关系数,均方误差
1.2 1
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
LDEO1-ACC Per.72-91 LDEO2-ACC LDEO3-ACC Per.75-97 OXF69-91 BMRC1-ACC BMRC2-ACC Per.72-86
OXF1
0.26 NCC/NIM 0.30
OXF2
0.50 CAMS/NJU 0.99
持续性 0.70
1998-2000 La Nina Made in March 2000
第九章 ENSO系统 9.1 ENSO概念 9.2 ENSO监测与诊断 9.3 机制与模拟 9.4 ENSO的气候影响 9.5 ENSO的长期变化 9.6 ENSO预测 9.7 1997/1998 El Nino
ECMWF Experimental Seasonal Forecast Project
ENSO cycles: 1995-1999
Ocean surface wind, sea level and temperature anomalies (seasonal cycle removed)
14) reduction in coastal fishery and fish meal production.
ENSO指数的频次分布
30
20
10
0
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Coral Pollen
Coral
Deposit Fauna
Science, Vol. 291, 1496-1497, 2001
0 neutral or cold 1 weak moderate
2 moderate 3 moderate +
4 strong 5 strong + 6 very strong
Quinn and collaborators based their identification upon a literature search and, for the modern record, sea surface temperature observations at stations along the Peru coast.
150oE
180oW
150oW
120oW
1998-4 SSTA obs.
Made in March 1998
90oW
24oN 12oN
0o 12oS 24oS
120oE
150oE
180oW
150oW
120oW
1998-7 SSTA obs.
90oW
24oN 12oN
0o 12oS 24oS
120oE
3) presence of aguaje (red tide),
4) penetration of abnormally warm waters farther south than usual along the coast of Peru during southern hemisphere summer and/or fall,
杰、宋永加) 3. 大气所海气耦合模式IAPAPOGCM ( 周广庆）
统计模式（方法）
1. 气候中心 四个统计模式 （相似预报、最优叠合
统计模式、SSA、CCA)
2. 海洋局统计模式
3. 大气所物理统计模式
4. 气候中心 林学椿的统计方法
5. 气科院 张先恭的统计方法
正常偏冷
国家气候中心动力模式
作者/使用者 模式名
系统成员 主要研制者
特征
NCCo 李清泉,赵宗慈
热带太平洋,距平,替代
NCCn 张祖强,李清泉,赵宗慈 热带太平洋,距平,发展
NCC/STI 端义宏,梁旭东,李永平 热带太平洋,距平,伴随
CAMS/NJU 倪允琪,史历,殷永红 全球热带海洋,距平
NCC/NIM 张勤,丁一汇,李清泉 热带太平洋, 统计大气
5) abnormally high air temperatures in the coastal cities of northern Peru,
6) thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and /or flood conditions,
7) destruction of buildings, houses, and sometimes whole cities in the coastal zone by river inundations and flood waters,
第九章 ENSO系统 9.1 ENSO概念 9.2 ENSO监测与诊断 9.3 机制与模拟 9.4 ENSO的气候影响 9.5 ENSO的长期变化 9.6 ENSO预测 9.7 1997/1998 El Nino
预测方法
国内预报模式
动力模式 1. 国家气候中心五个简化海气耦合模式 2. 国家气候中心五个复杂耦合模式(赵其庚、高学
第九章 ENSO系统 9.1 ENSO概念 9.2 ENSO监测与诊断 9.3 机制与模拟 9.4 ENSO的气候影响 9.5 ENSO的长期变化 9.6 ENSO预测 9.7 1997/1998 El Nino
El Nino Index Quinn et al. employed the following six categories.(1525-)
8) obstructions to travel as the result of destruction of bridges, roadways, and/or railroad facilities by hydrological forces,
9) destruction of agricultural crops,
1.2 1
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
0 -0.2 -0.4
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
NCC/STI NCCn NJU/CAMS NCC/NIM NCCo Per.79-98 Per.70-98
Made in March 1998
24oN
12oN
0o
12oS
24oS 120oE
10) significant rises in sea temperatures and sea levels,
11) southward invasions of tropical nekton,
12) mass mortality of endemic marine sea life,