2013
Certificate Authority Cup International Mathematical Contest Modeling
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PROBLEM A:
Mathematics and Economic Calamity
数学和经济灾难
The market crash of 2008 that plunged the world into the economic recession from which it is still reeling had many causes.
2008年市场崩溃使世界陷入经济衰退从它仍然是步履蹒跚是有多方面的原因。
One of them was mathematics.
其中之一就是数学。
The financial world is not alone, of course, in depending on mathematical models that aren't always reliable for decision-making guidance.
金融世界并不孤单，当然，在这依赖于数学模型并不总是可靠的决策指导。
Scientists
struggle with models in many fields—including climate science, coastal erosion and nuclear safety—in which the phenomena they describe are very complex, or information is hard to come by, or, as is the case with financial models, both.
科学家模型在许多领域，包括气候科学，奋斗沿海侵蚀和核安全中所描绘的现象十分
复杂的，或者信息是很难得的，或者，是与财务情况型号，两者兼而有之。
Those formulas, or models, are only pale reflections of the real
world, and sometimes they can be woefully misleading.
这些公式或模型，是对现实世界的只有苍白的反射，有时也可以是可悲的误导。
Despite their ubiquity, these risk models fail to take into account important forces that affect the market.
尽管他们无处不在，这些风险模型没有考虑到的重要影响市场的力量。
Researchers are building ways to work around
these limitations and prevent a repeat market crash.
研究人员正在构建的方式来解决这些限制，并防止重复市场崩溃。
Yet these strategies may
limit profits, making it unlikely that banks will adopt them without being forced to do so.
然而，这些策略可能限制利润，使得它不大可能银行采取他们没有被强迫这样做。
If possible, you can redefine risk, then build a dynamic model of some principal factors of the market to monitor the triggers or symptoms to
reduce the potential for surprise.
如果可能的话，你可以重新定义风险，然后建立一些动态模型市场的主要因素监视触发器或症状减少意外的可能性。
Blaming the economic calamity on risk models would be an
oversimplification.
归咎于风险模型的经济灾难将是一个过于简单化的处理。
Other human factors—political and regulatory
ones—certainly come into play.
其他的人为因素-政治和监管的人，一定会在一定程度上起到某种作用。
How to reduce the impact of human?
如何减少人为的影响？
In addition to the contest's format, prepare a short 1-2 page non-technical letter to the financial investment firms with your final recommendations.
除了比赛的格式，编写短1-2页的非技术信金融投资公司与您的最后建议。