题目: 行业经济发展对我国环境影响分析摘要在现代社会，行业经济分类作为重要的统计分类，对社会和经济发展的研究具有重要的意义，本文通过统计模型分析了行业经济发展和环境污染之间的关系，并对如何防范和治理环境污染提出了建议。

本文收集了1989-2011年的行业经济发展指标和环境污染指标，首先利用因子分析将3个环境污染指标综合为一个环境污染指标，命名为综合环境因子，然后又用格兰杰因果检验方法检验了各行业经济是否为环境的格兰杰原因，最后利用向量自回归模型分析了各行业经济对环境污染的贡献度。

得出的结论如下，从1989年到2011年以来对环境污染贡献度最大的是建筑业，占了所有行业的34%，电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业及农林牧渔业等第一产业对环境的污染相对较小，从各行业经济发展对环境污染影响程度的增长趋势来看，电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业及农林牧渔业等第一产业对环境污染影响的贡献度逐渐减小，第三产业和制造业基本保持不变，建筑业对环境污染的影响则逐渐变大。

因此若要改善环境，治理环境污染，应该重点解决建筑业、制造业和第三产业对环境的污染。

关键词：环境污染行业经济因子分析格兰杰因果检验向量自回归模型AbstractIn modern society, industry, economic classification as an important statistical classification of social and economic development of the research has important significance, this paper analyzes the statistical model of economic development and trade relationship between environmental pollution, and how to prevent and control environmental Pollution is suggested. This collection 1989-2011 years of industry indicators of economic development and environmental pollution indicators, the first to use factor analysis to three indicators of environmental pollution as a comprehensive environmental pollution index, named for integrated environmental factors, and then tested using Granger causality test whether the environment in sectoral economic Granger cause Finally vector autoregression model to analyze the various sectors of economic contribution of environmental pollution. Concluded as follows, from 1989 to 2011 since the contribution of environmental pollution is the biggest construction industry accounted for 34% of all industries, electricity, gas and water production and supply industry, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, the first industrial pollution of the environment is relatively small, from all sectors of economic development impact of environmental pollution on the growth trends, Electricity, gas and water production and supply industry, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, the first industry's contribution to environmental pollution degree decreases, the tertiary industry and manufacturing sectors remained unchanged, the construction industry on the effects of environmental pollution is gradually larger. So to improve the environment, environmental pollution, should focus on resolving the construction, manufacturing and tertiary industry pollution of the environment.Key words: Environmental pollution, industry economy, factor analysis, Granger causality test, vector autoregression model目录摘要 ..................................................................................................................................................- 1 -Abstract ...............................................................................................................................................- 2 -一文献综述 ......................................................................................................................................- 4 -二研究方法与指标数据说明...........................................................................................................- 5 -2.1研究方法 ..............................................................................................................................- 5 -2.2指标选取 ..............................................................................................................................- 6 -三实证分析 ......................................................................................................................................- 7 -3.1对数据进行分析 ..................................................................................................................- 7 -3.2因子分析 ..............................................................................................................................- 7 -3.3格兰杰因果检验 ..................................................................................................................- 9 -3.4向量自回归模型 ............................................................................................................... - 10 -四结论及其政策建议.................................................................................................................... - 13 -附录 ................................................................................................................................................. - 14 -参考文献 ......................................................................................................................................... - 16 -行业经济发展对我国环境影响分析一文献综述《国家发展改革委关于推进全国资源节约型和环境友好型社会建设综合配套改革试验区的通知》中注明推进城市群综合配套改革，要深入贯彻落实科学发展观，从各自实际出发，根据资源节约型和环境友好型社会建设的要求，全面推进各个领域的改革，在重点领域和关键环节率先突破，大胆创新，尽快形成有利于能源资源节约和生态环境保护的体制机制，加快转变经济发展方式，推进经济又好又快发展，促进经济社会发展与人口、资源、环境相协调，切实走出一条有别于传统模式的工业化、城市化发展新路，为推动全国体制改革、实现科学发展与社会和谐发挥示范和带动作用。