外文文献翻译译文一、外文原文原文：Do Leverage, Dividend Policy and Profitability influence the Future Value of Firm? Evidence from IndiaINTRODUCTIONWith the ushering of economic liberalization in 1992, Indian stock market has undergone several changes over the last decade. These include introduction of new exchanges, massive computerization and electronic limit order book integrating the stock exchanges across the nation, establishing of clearing corporation and subsequent introduction of new derivative products in the market. Perhaps the most important among these changes was the establishment of Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) in 1992 as the market watchdog. SEBI, since it’s inception has strived in the direction of narrowing the information gap between Indian corporations and investors, enforce better corporate governance practices through guidelines, rules and regulations and through active market for corporate control that has marked a new era in the Indian financial arena. The investors reveled their confidence through their participation in the primary and secondary market. Large number of new companies came to the primary market over 1993-96 and the market capitalization of S&PCNX 500 has increased considerably over 1990s. India has emerged as an emerging economy with largest number of companies listed in its stock markets.Over the last decade corporate governance has received considerable importance in Indian financial market. With the initiation of market for corporate control and activities in the merger and acquisition market, CEOs have assigned tremendous importance for creating value for their firms. Accordingly companies from different sectors (and/or ownership groups) have adopted different strategies to signal their earning and growth potential over the years and thereby influence their stock prices.With this in the background this paper attempts to analyze the factors that influenced the future value of the companies listed in Indian stock markets and also how the effect of these factor changes over different categories of firms.Background LiteratureThe well-developed and vibrant literature in modern corporate finance has its root in the seminal paper by Franco Modigliani and Merton Miller (1958, 1963),(M-M henceforth). This branch of finance started with the assumption of perfect information and complete markets. It postulates that in a typical neoclassical market with perfect competition, absence of agency costs, transaction and banking costs, the average cost of raising fund for any firm is completely independent of its capital structure. With the same set of assumptions M-M (1963) argued that the value of the firm is unaffected by the dividend policy. However, over time many of these simplified assumptions were relaxed and subsequent research showed capital structure does matter and there could exist optimal dividend policy in the modified M-M framework.Academic literature over the last decade has documented the effect of different strategic factors influencing the firm values for the developed countries. Rappaport (1981, 1987) has used value creation literature for corporate mergers and acquisition and underlined the importance of growth rate, operating profit, income tax rate and fixed capital investment as the major factor influen cing the firms’ value. Recently some of the studies concentrated on emerging market to analyze the factors that influenced the firms’value in this market. Ben Naceur and Goaied (2002) investigated value creation process for Tunisian stock exchange using a random probit model with unbalanced panel data. It considered that the managers’ succeeded creating value to its share holders if the market value of the share exceeds the book value of the corporation and vice versa. The authors considered three main determinants of value creation: financial policy, profitability and dividend policy.In the modified M-M framework, literature has shown that firm’s performance depends on the capital structure (or financial policy). Ross (1977) argued that more leverage would signal the investors about the improved firm prospect andinfluence the firm’s value in future. Increase in dividend payout increases the investors’ income at present and signal the expected future cash flow for the corporation. Profitability is undoubtedly one of the major factors determining the firm value. Ben Naceur and Goaied(2002) argued that while profitability and debt have positive effect on the probability of crating future value, the pay-out have reverse effect on the same.India has one of the most developed stock markets in the world with large number of domestic and international players investing in Indian stock market. With maximum number of companies listed in the Indian stock exchanges from different industries and different ownership groups (e.g. business affiliated firms, Indian standalone, foreign standalone) and with the emphasis on corporate governance practices, India has become an important and interesting destination for such studies. Among the available studies in this area, Sahu (2002) used a sample of companies listed in BSE to explain the abnormal stock returns by dividend stability and found no statically significant result. Another study by Tuli and Mittal (2001) used 101 Indian firms and found price earning ratio is significantly influenced by variability of market price and dividend pay out ratio.However, the authors did not find any significant effect of industry and ownership pattern on price to earning ratio.This papers aims at determining the factors influencing the probability of future firm value for Indian corporations after controlling for the industry and time specific effects. In particular this study attempts to answer the following questions:（1）How the probability of future value creation is affected by firm’s profitability, financing pattern and the dividend pay-out policy?（2）Whether the firms belonging to business groups have different effect on probability of value creation?DataThe primary source of the data for this paper is PROWESS database, compiled by Center for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE). This dataset is similar to the COMPUSTAT database in USA. We have selected the firms that are presently included in S&PCNX 500 index. The accounting and stock price data for these companies are extracted for the year 1989-90 to 2001-02 from Prowess dataset forthis study.So far we have done the univariate and bivariate analysis in the previous section.To examine the factors effecting the future value creation of the firms listed in the Indian stock exchange we examine the effect of previous year’s leverage, dividend and profitability on the MBVR of the company in a multivariate framework.Variable DescriptionMarket to book value ratio (MBVR) is defined as the ratio of closing price of the equity to book value of equity at the end of the financial year. MBVR is the dependent variable for the OLS regression. For the logit model the dependent variable is a binary series, which takes the value 1 if price to book value ratio is greater than one (i.e., market perceived that future value of the firm is going to increase) and zero otherwise.The other variables of interest include those representing Leverage Policy,Dividend Policy and Profitabilit y that have key bearing on the firms’ future value creation. While the ratio of total amount of long-term debt to total amount of equity capital (LEVERAGE) is included to proxy the leverage policy of the corporation, the ratio of total dividend to total earning of the firm (PAY_OUT) i s included to capture the dividend policy of the same. The profitability of a company, on the other hand, is captured by the ratio of net profit to net worth of the firm, which is also known as return on equity (ROE).To control for the size of the firm we consider total assets (ASSET) of the firm as a proxy variable. To control for the differenced arising due to the firms belonging to different business groups this paper considers different dummy variables. If the firm is Among the large number of listed companies, those included in S&PCNX 500 are often considered for empirical studies for their liquid nature and representative characteristics.Private Indian standalone then the dummy, D_PVT_IND, take the value one and zero otherwise. If, on the other hand, a firm is private foreign standalone then the dummy, D_PVT_FOR, take the value one and otherwise zero. Indian companies differ considerably access the industries. So industry dummies were used to control for industry specific heterogeneity. Since 1990, Indian economy has undergoneseveral changes, which have their influence on the corporate valuation. So time dummies were also included to control for the time trend. All the nominal variables are deflated by GDP deflator and expressed at constant price of 1987-88.(Insert Table-1 here)Table 1: Descriptive statistics(MBVR) is ratio of closing price of the equity to book value of equity at the end of thefinancial year. LEVERAGE is the ratio of total amount of long-term debt to total amount ofequity capital.PAY_OUT is the ratio of total dividend to total earning of the firm. Returnon equity (ROE) is the ratio of net profit to net worth of the firm.ASSET total assets of thefirm.Variable All Firms Large Firms Small Firms Group FirmsIndianStandaloneFirmsForeign StandaloneFirmsMBVRLE VERAGE DIVIDEND P AY OFF3.137(5.993)1.726(4.140)0.023(0.029)2.133(3.537)3.057(7.151)0.025(0.028)3.349(6.372)1.441(3.063)0.023(0.029)2.833(5.659)1.973(4.470)0.024(0.030)2.850(5.119)1.247(3.094)0.024(0.026)5.776(8.255)0.319(0.484)0.020(0.023)PROFITABILITY (ROE) 0.138(0.367)0.095(0.449)0.148(0.346)0.133(0.372)0.168(0.283)0.148(0.Table 1 shows the mean values and the standard deviations (in parenthesis) of the variables under consideration under six different cases (namely, all firms, large firms, small firms, group-affiliated firms, Indian standalone firms and foreign standalone firms). The descriptive statistics reported in Table 1 shows that the value of a firm, in terms of MBVR, is higher for the small firms and the foreign standalone firms. Large firms get more leverage than any other category of firms. Profitability of the firm, in terms of ROE, is higher for the Indian standalone companies. Table 2 shows the Pearson correlation coefficient matrix between the variables of interest. It shows that MBVR has significant negative correlation with leverage and size of the firm and positive correlation with dividend policy and profitability of the firm. In the Appendix Figure 1 and 4 show that with the ushering of economic liberalization there is a sharp rise in MBVR and ROE in the year 1992, which have gradually decreased over the years. Figure 2 shows since post liberalization period, the leverage has shown an increasing trend. However, dividend payout policy does not depict any significant trend over this period.The coefficient of lagged value of leverage (-O.44) and its square term (0.007)imply that as the leverage of the firm increases, the probability of raise in future firm’s values declines at a decreasing rate. The negative influence of leverage on the probability of future value creation was observed across the ownership groups and size. The profitability of the firm (as apparent from the coefficient of ROE) increases the probability of increase in future value creation. Point to note is, this increase is higher for foreign standalone firms as compare to Indian standalone or group-affiliated firms.Unlike the OLS model, the dividend payout did not significantly explain the chance of future value creation. Neither in the pooled model nor in the size and ownership group specific regression the coefficient of payout was significantly different from zero at 10per cent level.ResultThis paper analyzed the accounting factor that influence the probability of increase in future m arket valuation of the firms’ listed in Indian stock exchange after controlling for the time and industry specific effects. The empirical results indicate that the increase in leverage has a negative impact on the chance of future value increase of the firm. It could be because more reliance on credit increases the conflict of interest between shareholders and creditors, giving more control to the managers/promoter, which in turn have a negative influence on the future valuation. Alike Naceur and Goaied (2002), we found previous year’s profitability positive influences future firm’s value, a s increase in profitability might have signaled better quality of size. This finding could be because of the fact that the dividend payment the future per management. However, the pay-off did not significantly influence the probability of future MBVR increase in the pooled model as well as the models across ownership group an formance varied considerably across firms listed in Indian stock exchange.ConclusionThis paper investigates the value creation process of the firms listed in the Indian stock market and their dependence on the accounting variables. It used an unbalanced logit model and found that the increase in profitability has a positive influence on theprobability of creating future value and the relation is stronger for foreign standalone firms as compared to private Indian standalone or business group owned firms. Leverage, one the other hand, has negative impact on the chances of increase in future value of the corporation and this relation was uniform across size and ownership group. It could be because of the potential conflict of interest between the equity holders and the creditors that got reflected in the stock prices. The dividend pay-off policy of the firm, however, could not significantly influence the probability of future value creation of the firms listed in Indian stock market.Source:Saurabh Ghosh,2008“Do Leverage, Dividend Policy and Profitability Influence Future Value of Firm? Evidence from India”.Reserve Bank of India.July.pp.1-3.二、翻译文章译文：是否杠杆、股利政策及盈利能力会影响公司未来的价值？介绍随着1992年以来的经济自由化，印度股市在过去十年经历了很多变化。