中国最近几年自用型消费是主体,推动中国葡萄酒市场转型从世界范围内总体来说,酒类市场供大于求。
经济危机后全球经济疲软,特别是,生产、消费酒类的主体,欧美地区。
新兴国家如中国却有着巨大的潜在市场和消费人群(中产阶级以及中高产阶级consumers were moving into the middle and upper-middle classes),2011比去年同期增长2.2%,预计2012会比去年增长$62.7 billion (2014年中国已超越美国、法国成为了世界上红葡萄酒消费量最大的国家) .2012年开始,连续多年进口酒市场的高增长戛然而止,先是在具备行业风向标意义的苏富比秋拍中,法国著名的波尔多产区高端葡萄酒价格出现了30%的降幅。
原因是因为中国廉政政策,公款高消费的紧缩。
PEST分析政治因素:China’s government was distinct because it was a communist state.China’s economy had seen great prosperity since its adaptation to being less planned and more marketorientedIt was the second-largest economy in the world, only behind the United States Chinese government faced big challenges: low domestic demand for products/services due largely to the culture’s innate need to save, job creation for the rapidly growing population and number of immigrants, and reduction of crime and corruption=>廉政政策后高端葡萄酒市场,预计下滑了40%-50%The Chinese government’s protectionist measures remained a barrier for multinationals中国市场,人民币较为坚挺,出口风险更低,通货膨胀现象很严重社会因素:low domestic demand for products/services due largely to the culture’s innate 人口基数大老龄社会科技因素:The Chinese Wine IndustryChina’s wine history dated to 206 BC and the beginning of the Han Dynasty. However, winemaking did not expand in China because of seasonality, poor soil conditions and lack of suitable technology. Wine tended to be used by government officials or wealthy merchants at important ceremonies, while beverages distilled from grains dominated the mass market, although ordinary Chinese people used it for events like birthdays, farewells and weddings.SWOT分析(1)优势葡萄酒作为国际通畅型饮料,来自新、旧世界的葡萄酒产品各具特色。
而且葡萄酒在国际市场属于剩余产品,关税壁垒的逐步趋缓使得国外葡萄酒在中国市场更具竞争力。
(2)劣势1. 国外葡萄酒要根据当地市场的具体情况相应地调整其营销战略,因为缺乏营销网络和富有竞争力的售后服务将会阻碍国外葡萄酒在中国市场的进一步发展。
2. 大多数国外葡萄酒企业不了解中国市场,甚至没来过中国,更谈不上市场调查,他们对于这以市场没有长期投资的观念,也对中国市场不感兴趣,仅仅使用一些微薄的财力来对市场做一些促销。
3. 中国国内葡萄酒企业凭借其当地品牌、低成本、更适合的口味和强劲的产品广告和促销,对进口葡萄酒形成巨大的挑战。
4. 没有多少消费懂得如何正确的饮用葡萄酒,大多数消费者不能分辨出各种进口葡萄酒的异同。
(3)机会 1. 国际葡萄酒市场的低迷使得包括中国在内的亚洲国家成为葡萄酒竞争的主战场,中国无疑将成为这以市场的热门,这为国外葡萄酒提供了有巨大潜力的市场。
2. 中国政府鼓励人民消费更多的葡萄酒和果酒,降低浪费粮食的白酒的消费。
3. 媒体对于饮用葡萄酒有益健康的报道也对葡萄酒的消费产生了推波助澜的作用。
4. 进口葡萄酒可以瞄准中国高档酒市场做一些文章。
5. 中国经济的强劲发展也为葡萄酒消费的进一步增长提供了刺激因素。
6. 随着生活水平的提高,越来越多的消费者会开始消费进口葡萄酒。
7. 有了更多的消费人群,进口葡萄酒市场会更加成熟。
8. 中国的入世会给各个包括新、旧世界在内的葡萄酒生产国提供更多的挑战和机会,所以竞争也将会更激烈。
9. 要想生产高质量的葡萄酒,以下三个因素起主要作用:酿酒葡萄来源、技术和人才优势和资本投入。
在葡萄酒的生产上,中国及缺乏技术和人才,又缺乏资本,这正是葡萄牙企业的优势所在。
(4)威胁 1. 一些国外葡萄酒企业已经意识到品牌建设和消费者培育将决定在中国市场上的成败。
2. 威胁同样来自中国国内葡萄酒企业,他们同国外公司合作创立自己的品牌来与国外竞争对手相抗衡。
3. 提供给潜在消费者能够支付的价格,创立满足各种条件的品牌对于国外葡萄酒企业是一个极大的挑战。
4. 最终,缺乏对市场长期投资的观念和信心将把国外葡萄酒驱逐出中国市场。
5 forces de porter来自消费者的议价能力(Bargaining power of customers)市场供过于求,消费者议价能力不断上升,品牌渐成关键消费者对葡萄酒的消费弹性较大。
葡萄酒的消费主要源于社交需要和个人需要,前者对葡萄酒所传递的社交信息更重视,更注重葡萄酒的品牌、价位、包装、口味,后者则更注重葡萄酒的口味和性价比。
社交场合的酒类消费虽然弹性较小,但由于有白酒这一强有力的竞争对手,消费者选择葡萄酒的弹性较大。
对于个人消费而言,除少数极其喜好葡萄酒的人士外,普通消费者对葡萄酒的消费弹性也较大,葡萄酒尚未走入平常百姓的日常餐桌。
随着国内外葡萄酒市场的融合,全球供过于求的局面将会逐渐影响国内市场,消费者在有多种选择的背景下,即使消费人群非常分散,其依然有着不错的议价能力。
China was a money-saving culture and was typically price sensitive, wine purchasers would pay a premium for quality and presentation.来自供应商的议价能力(Bargaining power of suppliers)Although the two nations were developing stronger and closer ties, it seemed that the majority of Chinese did not understand Israel or the Middle East very well.弱点As a result, China and Israel had begun to make efforts to promote cross-cultural learning. In 2002, a memorandum of understanding was signed to facilitate direct flights between Beijing and Tel Aviv, after which tourism between the two countries increase d.33 In 2009, an “Experience China in Israel” festival was held to celebrate the ties between the two countries. Israel spent US$11 million to construct a national pavilion at the 2010 Shanghai Expo.Winery’s creators and clearly illustrates the perfect synergy between vineyard and winery, growers and winemaker, and their mutual search for excellence.来自潜在进入者的威胁(Threat of new entrants)Chinese wineries will continue to look to overseas acquisitions of vineyards to leverage on the brand appeal of international wines as well as increase their production capacities. China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO), a state-owned agribusiness conglomerate, has purchased Chateau Viaud, a 20-hectare Lalande-de-Pomerol estate in the wine region of Bordeaux, France. Other domestic wineries such as Dynasty Fine Wines Group and China Great Wall Wine Company are also looking to acquire Old World winery assets. Our forecast of 5.9 per cent compound annual average growth in wine sales in volume terms to 2016 underlines the tremendous potential on offer in the Chinese wine market新建产能门槛较高,但进口酒进入容易,对市场冲击明显国内外市场的开放、进口关税的下降、国内葡萄酒市场需求的快速增长以及国内葡萄酒整体毛利率的偏高均对国外葡萄酒进入国内市场形成了较大的吸引力,进口酒进入国内市场相对容易。