如此复杂的系统是一定要出事的，不是今天，就是明 Such a complex system certainly and reasonably will go 天，合情合理。一次事故之后，人们总是要积极寻找事 wrong, either today nor tomorrow. After one accident, people 故原因，以防止下一次事故，这是人的一般理性都能够 always actively look for the reasons in order to prevent the. 理解的，否则，或者从此放弃航天事业，或者听任下一 next accident, that is, comprehensible to reason. Otherwise, 次事故再次发生，这都不是一个国家能够接受的结果。 or abandon the aerospace, or allow another accident. However, neither of the results can be accepted by a country
The subjective reasons for the accident is people are easily ignoring small probability events so that fluky psychology and careless appeared. Murphy's law tells us, never let the Safety awareness loose at any moment. To ensure security, we must act From now on and from ourselves, and take proactive and preventive methods, means and measures to eliminate accidents that people do not want to have.
当你在街上准备拦一辆车去赴一个时 间紧迫的约会，你会发现街上所有的出 租车不是有客就是根本不搭理你，而当 你不需要出租车的时候，却发现有很多 空车在你周围游弋，随时等待你的召唤 。 When you are in the street to catch a cab for an urgent appointment，you will find all of the taxis on the street either have passengers or just ignore you, while many empty cars cruise around you and await only your call at the moment that a taxi is not needed.
2003年美国“哥伦比亚”号航天飞机即将返回地面时， The shuttle Columbia disintegrated over the area in central 在美国得克萨斯州中部地区上空解体，机上6名美国 Texas as it returned to Earth in 2003, killing six United States 宇航员以及首位进入太空的以色列宇航员拉蒙全部遇难。 astronauts and Israel’s first entering space astronaut named “哥伦比亚”号航天飞机失事也印证了“墨菲定律”。 Ramón. The accident of the shuttle Columbia just corroborated Murphy's law.
为何如此小的概率事件还会发生啊？ 为何如此小的概率事件还会发生啊？
墨菲定律
Murphy's Law
美国一位名叫墨菲的上尉。他认为他的某位同事是个 "Murphy's Law" springs from Murphy, a captain of American. He 倒霉蛋，不经意说了句笑话：“如果一件事情有可能被弄糟， thought one of his co-workers was a poor devil and inadvertently 让他去做就一定会弄糟。” said a joke about him: "if a thing may be messed up, he will certainly make it worse and worse."
认识之二：墨菲定律是安全管理过程中的长鸣警钟
Murphy's law keeps a warning on the process of safety management 小概率事件往往被人们忽视，产生侥幸心理 和麻痹大意思想，这恰恰是事故发生的主观原 因。墨菲定律告诫人们，安全意识时刻不能放 松。要想保证安全，必须从现在做起，从我做 起，采取积极的预防方法、手段和措施，消除 人们不希望有的和意外的事件。
一、任何事都没有表面看起来那么简单； 1.Nothing looks as easy as it looks； 二、所有的事都会比你预计的时间长； 2.Everything takes longer than planned； 三、会出错的事总会出错； 3.Anything that can go wrong will go wrong； 四，如果你担心某种情况发生，那么它就更有可能发生。 4.If you are afraid something to happen, then it is more likely to occur.
4月14日7时49分，青海省玉树藏族自治州玉树县发生7.1级地震, 地震本身已经造成了异常惨烈的灾情，而天气的寒冷及风沙更是对 救灾工作造成了巨大阻碍。青海省位于亚欧板块与印度洋板块交界 处，属于欧亚地震带，地壳受两大板块挤压变形，极不稳定，所以 才会发生地震。 At 7:49 on the April 14, there occurred a 7.1-magnitude earthquake in Yushu Country, Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Qinghai Province. The earthquake itself has caused abnormal tragic disaster, Why such a small probability ofhardships for will happen? besides, the cold weather and sand created the event the relief work. Qinghai Province is located at the junction of the Indian Ocean tectonic plate and the Europe and Asia tectonic plate, which is the Eurasian seismic zone. It is squeeze of the two plates brings about the unstable terrain deformation that causes an earthquake.
认识之一：不能忽视小概率危险事件
First: Nor can anybody ignore small probability event
由于小概率事件在一次实验或活动中发生的可能性很 小，因此，就给人们一种错误的理解，即在一次活动中不 会发生。与事实相反，正是由于这种错觉，麻痹了人们的 安全意识，加大了事故发生的可能性，其结果是事故可能 频繁发生。 A small probability event in an experiment or activity seems less likely, so it gives people a false understanding that the accident won’t happen. On the contrary, it is this delusion paralysis of the people's safety awareness that increase the possibility of accident happening, resulting in frequent accidents.
一、凡事必有其因果，不要归咎于运气不好 Everything has its cause and effect, do not blame bad luck. 二、要关注细节、不放过任何小过失 Pay more attention to details, don’t miss any mistake. 三、要重视心理暗示的作用 Attach great importance to the psychological effect. 四、要善于做好危机管理，防患于未然 Try the best to do the crisis management well and deal with the accident before it deals with you.
1）对于事情考虑得复杂一些；并对最坏的情况作出打算，提前准备 灾后处理措施； 1.Considering every matter more complex and in case of the worst case, we’d better prepare in advance. 2）不要低估时间的耗用； 2. Never underestimate your consumption of time. 3）可以运用头脑风暴法，查出各种可能出现问题的地方，并试图 采取应对措施。 3. Brainstorming can be used to identify possible problems in all areas and try to take feasible m的后果。 4. Accept the error and the consequence it brings.