Historical Projected
Module Price ($/W) ($2002)
32%/pa
1
We know how to do this We don’t know how to do this
Current US Generation Capacity
0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Cumulative Production (MW)
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
13
Bottom Line The Future of Solar Cells
Year PV Market System Cost Energy Status Dominant Technology
Ingot Gr owt h, 21% Inst allat ion, 31%
Waf er ing, 14%
Module Assembly, 21%
Cell Pr ocessing, 14%
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
2
Historical Silicon PV Efficiency
10
Module Manuf. Cost Roadmap
3.00 2.50
Module Cost ($/W)
2.00
2012 $1.00/W
1.50
1.00
Mc-Si CZ-Si
0.50
0.00 2002 2004 2006 Year 2008 2010 2012
11
Factors Driving Future Cost Reduction • • • • • • Increasing efficiency: 16% →25% Reduced thickness: 220 µm → 120 µm Increased cell size: 125 mm → 200 mm Improvements in crystal growth technology Improvements in slicing technology Increased manufacturing scale: 200 MW → 500 MW • More automation
High-Efficiency Silicon Solar Cells
Richard M. Swanson SunPower Corporation
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
1
PV System Cost Components
Higher efficiency leverages cost savings throughout the value chain
29.0% -4.4% 24.6%
I2R Loss 0.1%
8
History of Best Laboratory Silicon Cells
How High Can We Go? Stanford UNSW
9
Convergence of thermodynamic And device models
Wafered Silicon
2005
1 GW
$6.00/W
Negligible Contribution “The Tipping Point” Cost Effective Building Integrated Applications Emergence of Large Distributed Plants. PV Becomes a Major Source of Energy.
A300
Back Side
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
Front Side
7
High-Efficiency Back-Contact Loss Mechanisms
0.5% 0.8%
1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
0.2% 1.0%
Limit Cell Efficiency Total Losses Enabled Cell Efficiency
NANO?
14
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
rface
240 µ
on wa stalline silic ry thick monoc
fer
N
P
–
+
By locating all of the electrical contacts on the back surface, SunPower is able to A achieve of Cypress Semiconductor subsidiary conversion efficiencies up to 50% higher than conventional solar cells. 6
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor 12
Extending Projection to 2023 Predicts Cost-effective Bulk Power
100 1978 $30.14/W 1980 $21.83/W 1986 $10.48 10 2000 $3.89/W 2013 $1.44/W 2023 $0.65 Distributed Generation Value Bulk Generation Value
1.54%
3.8%
1.4% Back Light Absorption
Limit Cell Efficiency Total Losses Generic Cell Efficiency
29.0% -14.3% 14.7%
5
The All-Back-Contact Solar Cell
Textured front suGW
$3.00/W
Building Integrated Incentive Investments End
Wafered Silicon
2020 to 2025
100 GW
$1.50/W
• Wafered Silicon? • Thin Films? • Concentrators? •
Manufacturers Concentrated on Cost Reduction During this Period
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
3
Solar Cell Operation (cont.)
1. Photon of sunlight knocks electron loose N-type silicon Attracts electrons Top metal contact
P-type silicon attracts holes
2. Free electron goes to top metal contact
Bottom metal contact
3. Hole (broken bond) left behind goes to bottom metal contact
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
4
Conventional Solar Cell Loss Mechanisms
Reflection Loss 1.8% 0.4%
I2R Loss
0.4% 0.3% Recombination Losses 2.0% 2.6%