Chapter2 A Changed Global Reality 世界经济格局新变化Say this for the young century: we live in interesting times. Not quite 2 1⁄2 years ago, the world economy tipped into the most severe downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s. World trade slowed sharply. Unemployment lines grew longer, especially in the old industrial economies. Financial institutions that had seemed as solid as granite disappeared as if they were no more substantial than a bunch of flowers in the hands of an old-style magician. 对于新世纪，我们得这样说：我们生活在一个有趣的时代。
差不多两年半之前，世界经济陷入了20世纪30年代经济大萧条时期以来最惨重的低迷状态。
世界贸易进程大幅放缓。
失业队伍也越来越快，这在旧工业经济体系表现尤为突出。
原来坚如磐石的金融机构也消失了，似乎还不如老套的魔术师变的花束看起来真实。
Given that the scale of the downturn was so epochal, it should not be surprising that the nature of the recovery would likewise be the stuff of history. And it has been. As they make their way to Davos for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) by helicopter, bus, car or train (which is the right way to do it), the members of the global economic and political elite will find themselves coming to terms with something they have never known before. 考虑到经济衰退幅度如此的跨时代，经济复苏进程会很慢也是理所当然的，对此我们不应该感到吃惊。
事实也正如我们所料，复苏进程确实很慢。
全球经济政治精英乘直升飞机、大巴、小汽车或是火车前往达沃斯参加一年一度的世界经济论坛会议，此次会议上，全球经济政治精英会发现自己开始接受一些闻所未闻的事情。
The new reality can be expressed like this. For more than 200 years, since the Industrial Revolution, the world has seen two economies. One has dominated technological innovation and trade and amassed great wealth. The second —much of it politically under the thumb of the first —has remained poor and technologically dependent. This divide remains stubbornly real. The rich world —the U.S., Canada, Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the four original Asian dragons —accounts for only 16% of total world population but nearly 70% of world output. 当今的情况是这样的。
自工业革命以来的二百多年间，世界出现了两大经济体。
一个支配着技术创新和贸易，累积了大量财富。
另一个在政治上主要受前者的控制，在经济上一直处于贫穷状态并且在技术上存在依赖性。
两者的鸿亘古存在。
发达国家----美国、加拿大、西欧、澳大利亚、新西兰、日本及亚洲四小龙，以世界总人口的16%输出着世界将近70%的产品。
But change is upon us. The developed world of the haves is struggling to restart growth and preserve welfare states, while the world of the once have-nots has surged out of the downturn. Big emerging economies like China and India have discovered new sources of domestic demand. Parts of Africa are attracting real interest from investors. All told, the strength of the developing world has supported the global economy. The World Bank estimates that economic growth in low- and middle-income countries contributed almost half of world growth (46%) in 2010. 世界形势正发生着变化。
在发达国家的富人们努力重新刺激经济增长并维持社会福利的时候，曾经的穷人们却已经摆脱了经济困境。
像中国和印度这样大的新兴经济体已经找到了国内需求的新来源。
非洲的部分地区也正吸引着对他们真正感兴趣的投资者。
总之，发展中国家的力量撑起了世界经济。
据世界银行估计，2010年，中低收入国家的经济增长约占世界经济增长的一半（46%）。
A Sigh of Relief 经济回暖，令人欣慰In the long term, this is nothing but good news. As billions of poor people become more prosperous, they will be able to afford the comforts their counterparts in the rich world have longconsidered the normal appurtenances of life. But before we celebrate a new economic order, deep divisions both between and within nations have to be overcome. Otherwise, the world could yet tip back into a beggar-thy-neighbor populism that will end up beggaring everyone. We are not out of the woods yet. 从长远看来，这真的是个好消息。
随着几十亿的贫苦人们开始变得富有起来，他们也将能够支付得起发达国家的人们所拥有过的享受，而这些享受在富人们眼中仅仅是普通的生活附属品而已。
但是，在庆祝一个新的经济秩序建立之前，我们必须克服国与国之间以及国家内部存在的深层分歧。
否则，世界将会重新陷入以邻为壑的民粹主义，最终每个人都沦为乞丐，我们仍未脱离困境。
First, though, let's assess how things stand. The world is in a much better state than many expected it would be a year ago. The double-dip recession some economists feared never materialized. In the U.S., which seemed to stall in the summer, there are early signs that consumers are spending and banks are lending again, while the stock market is at its highest point in 21⁄2 years. Though Europe is wheezing under cascading sovereign-debt crises, it has so far avoided the worst-case scenarios —a collapse of the euro, a debt crisis that spills from small economies such as Greece and Ireland to much bigger ones like Italy and Spain, and bitter social unrest in those nations that are having to massage wages down while cutting public budgets. 不过首先让我们评估一下目前情况。
现在世界的状况比一年前我们所想象的要好得多。
一些经济学家一直害怕发生的“双底衰退”也从未出现过。
2008年的美国经济似乎一直停滞不前，但是现在一些早期迹象表明顾客开始消费了，银行也开始发放贷款了，同时股市也在经济萧条两年半之后达到了巅峰状态。
尽管欧洲一直在一重接一重的主权外债危机下苟延残喘，但是它到目前为止已经避免了最糟糕的状况-----欧元崩溃，欧元崩溃是一种债务危机，从希腊和爱尔兰这样小的经济体流窜到意大利和西班牙这样大的经济体，并且加剧了一些国家的社会骚乱，这些国家在缩减公共预算的同时不得不减少薪资。