工程管理专业毕业论文文献翻译中英文对照河北建筑工程学院毕业设计(论文)外文资料翻译系别: 管理系专业: 工程管理班级: 管072姓名:学号: 2007310223外文出处: Project Manager’s Spotlight on RiskManagementKim Heldman 附件:1、外文原文;2、外文资料翻译译文。

指导教师评语: 签字:年月日Defining Risk Response PlansYou’ve identified your risks, analyzed them for their impacts onthe project, assigned probabilities and impact values, determined an expected value, and ranked them in order. You’ve also determined which of the risks, given all those conditions, require response plans. This chapter discusses what risk response plans are, the techniques for developing response plans, and how to document and write plans for those risks that have a high probability and high impact on the project.Let’s get to it.Risk Response PlanningRisk Response Planning is the process of deciding what actions to take to educe threats (especially to schedule and cost) while taking advantage of he opportunities other risks present.Typically, you’ll want to develop risk response plans for riskswith the potential for high probability and high impact. It isn’t efficient to spent time writing response plans for risks you’ve determined aren’t likely to occur and won’t impact the project significantly if they do. For example, if I’m building a tourist center in the Mojave Desert, I wouldn’t spend time on a risk response plan for the possibility of rain(It does rainin the Mojave an average of 2.5 inches per year), so the possibility exists, but it’s highly unlikely it would impact my project. I’ll deal with thesetypes of risks in the “Contingency Planning” section a littlelater in this chapter.Remember that risk management planning, including thedevelopment of risk response plans, isn’t a one-time exercise. As youprogress through the project and learn more about potential risk events, you’ll reevaluate their impacts, which may require a change in strategy to deal with the risk and a new or revised response plan. And even though I’ve focused primarily on risks that prevent you from meeting the goals of the project, don’t forget that risks can produce opportunities.Uncertain CertaintyOne thing is certain: your project does have risks, and if youchoose to ignore them, your project will have an uncertain outcome. All project risk is closely linked with the availability of information and communication, or the lack thereof, as I’ve talked about previously. Themore information you have, the more likely you’re able to predictthe risk event and its impacts.And the better you’re able to predict risk imp acts, the betteryou’ll be at creating risk response plans.When thinking about risk response plans, keep in mind that risk out-comes generally fall into three categories:* Known risks with predictable outcomes* Known risks with uncertain outcomes* Unknown risks with unpredictable outcomesThese are fairly straightforward. A known risk is something you know has the potential to happen. The term predictable outcomes implies you know with reasonable certainty what the impacts and outcomes of the risk events would be if they occurred. Unpredictable outcomes are impacts and consequences of the risk event that aren’t fully identified or known. Let’s use a simple example to explain each of these outcomes. You’ve decided to paint your garage door this week end. One risk that could keep you from completing this project is the weather. No problem—you cruise the Internet and check out the local forecast, which predictsclear and sunny skies, with little possibility of showers. You have the means to learn about the weather (the Internet site) and to determine the certainty of the impact (a 10 percent chance of showers). That means you know, with predictable certainty, that this risk has a low chance of occurring. Known risks with uncertain outcomes are more difficult because, well, their outcomes aren’t certain. However, the amount of uncertainty could vary. You may, for example, know it’s going to rain but not know when it’ll start or how long it’ll continue. When you’re facing project risks with uncertain outcomes, I recommend learning everything you can about the risk and its possible impacts. (Since the impacts are unpredictable, this isn’t always possible.) You should interviewstakeholders, research past projects, and try to move as far fromtheuncertainty end of the spectrum as you can. The more you know, the better.The last bullet listed previously, unknown risks with unpredictable out- comes, says you don’t know about the risk and you don’t know about its impacts. It’s an unknown risk with an unknown o utcome. Suppose you’re happily painting away and are three-quarters finished when a flock of geese happens to fly right over your house. You guessed it. An unknown risk with an unpredictable outcome has occurred.Many project decisions are made without benefit of knowing all the facts, and risk analysis is no exception. Risk, after all, is primarilyabout uncertainty. Analyzing the risks tells you about the possible outcomes for the risk, and the response plan addresses how to deal with those outcomes.The greater your certainty of the outcome, the easier it will be to develop response plans. For example, if you know rain is a certainty on the day you’re planning on painting the garage, you can devise response plans that are fairly precise. You could postpone the painting to another day and sweep the garage floor instead.Or, perhaps you know with reasonable certainty that the rain is coming but won’t start until early afternoon. In that case, you could quickly paint the door in the morning while the sun is still out (or the clouds are rolling in) and then flip open the door so it’s protected by thegarage ceiling until it dries.Purpose of Planning for RisksThe purpose for risk planning is to determine the most appropriate response to reduce, control, or take advantage of the risk event. Along with determining the response, you’ll want to make certain you’re choosing the right strategy for the risk event. After determining the strategy to use, you’ll develop an action plan to put this strategyinto play should the risk event occur.The second purpose for risk planning is to determine a risk owner. I talked about risk owners and their responsibility in Chapter 2, “Identifying and Documenting Risks.” Once the plan is developed, therisk owner is the one held accountable for watching for risk triggers, tracking the risk, recommending the implementation of the response plan if the situation war-rants it, and then monitoring the effectiveness of the response plan once it’s implemented.Risk response planning also has an added benefit. When risk eventsdo occur, you’ll be able to remain calm, cool, and levelheaded about whatto do.Rather than reacting like our friend Ned, you’ll calmly reach for theresponse plan document and know what to do. When you’re i n panic mode, the object is to resolve the problem as quickly as possible. That means you usually deal with things the quickest and easiest way you can think of just to get everything under control. But getting immediate control doesn’t necessarily solve the problem in the long run. Response planning allows you determine the best method for dealing with a risk, which gives you a higher probability of meeting your project goals. Risk Response TechniquesYou have several strategies for dealing with risk that help reduceor control the impacts of risk events. The most common strategies are as follows:* Avoidance* Transference * Mitigation* Acceptance* Contingency planning* Independent verification and validationEach of these techniques has its strengths and weaknesses. Before determining which strategy to use, make certain you understand the type of risk you’re dealing with, as well as the severity of the risk. You’ll want to choose the strategy that will be the most effective and cost efficient for dealing with the risk event. If it costs you more to respond to the risk than the consequences of the risk itself, you may want to consider a different strategy.AvoidanceYou may have already guessed that the risk avoidance technique is about avoiding risk. True. It encompasses more than that, however. Risk avoidance techniques include the following:* Avoiding the risk altogether* Eliminating the cause of the risk event* Changing the project plan to protect the objectives from the risk eventLe t’s look at some examples for each technique. Avoiding the risk altogether implies that you know the outcomes of the risk with relative certainty and can take steps to keep the risk event from occurring. Suppose Ned and the photo-shoot team are headed to the airport to catch their flight to Paris. In keeping with Ned’s usual manner, he has held everyone up to the last second. If they leave any later, they won’t havetime to check the million pieces of luggage Ned is bringing and get through security in time to catch the flight. Sherry, the quick-thinking project manager, decides to do a traffic check before leaving. She logs onto the Internet and finds there’s been a major accident on the highwaythey were planning on taking to the airport. To avoid delays andkeep them from missing the flight, Sherry decides on an alternate route that bypasses the accident and avoids the risk event.Eliminating the cause of the risk is a technique that workssomething like this. Sherry knows that the team’s luggage looks like every other piece of luggage they’re likely to see on an airport conveyor belt. Theteam is carrying some sensitive company information and a few pieces of specialized equipment. Sherry can eliminate the cause of this risk by carrying the company material and specialized equipment on board intheir carry ones.One of the objectives of the photo assignment is to shoot picturesof Parisians doing everyday tasks—strolling through the park, eating at side-walk cafés, shopping, and so on—outside in the open air. Arainstorm pops up on the day this shoot is supposed to occur. Sherry changes the project plan by switching an indoor shooting day with the outdoor shooting day to protect the project objectives from the risk event.Avoidance is a great strategy when you can use it. The trouble is it isn’t appropriate for every risk, so let’s look at some more techniques.定义风险应对计划你已经定义风险,分析了他们对项目的影响、分配的可能性和有影响的标准,决定期望中的标准,并且把他们按目的排列整齐。