19
28
28
27
24
5
4
5
7
10
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
Increase
Page 11
Consumers expect that real estate prices will continue to increase.
Real estate price in the next 12 months
110
108
106
105 106
100
100
98
104 101
99 97
95
96
95
90 80
94
88
89
84
82 80
86 87
84
82
83
82
77 80
70
60
2nd Half 1st Half 2nd Half 1st Half 2nd Half 1st Quart 2nd Quart 3rd Quart 4th Quart
Tier 1 and Tier 5 cities are experiencing strong growth in consumers’ confidence while Tier 2/3/4 maintain their level. Confidence in the West is significantly higher in the last wave.
National 全国
Page 8
National 全国
对就业前景的看好和个人财政状况的积极改善主要受到一线和五线城镇
消费者的推动
Higher local job prospects and improved state of personal finances are mainly driven by
55
51
48
48 46
4546
4647
44
41 40
36 33
36 35
36
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5
Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey 数据来源：尼尔森消费者信心调查
How to best prepare the transition into 2010?
• 快速发展的新趋势：数字媒体
Fast emerging trend: Digital media
• 创新仍然是发展至关重要的助推力
Innovation still a key driver for growth
中国消费者信心研究简述
China Consumer Confidence Survey Description
• 研究方法 Methodology
– 覆盖城市：中国所有地区以及各级别城市，包括乡镇 Market coverage: all regions and all city tiers down to village
23
68
67
67
32
28
4
Overall Price Decrease
26
22
8
11
Food
Real Estate
Remain the same Increase
45
Auto
Page 10
67% of consumers think that food prices will increase.
100%
中国消费者信心指数 Consumer Confidence Index
09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4
+3
104 101
95
108 106
101
100100
+8
104 101 102
98
93 92
85
+5
107 102
104 101
107 106 104103
+7
103
97
95 96
93
93
89
National
90%
80%
70%
67
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% 26
10% 8
0%
National
Food prices during the next 12 months
63
72
67
70
68
67
66
66
76
25
25
12 3
East
Middle
Decrease
27
27
6
3
West Northeast
Remain the same
is therefore increasing.
[ 非常好 + 比较好 ] [ Excellent + Good ]
未来十二个月当地就业前景 Local Job Prospects in the next 12 Months
未来十二个月个人财政状况 State of Personal Finances in the next 12 months
Page 9
物价水平预期上涨
Consumers expect to rise over the next 12 months
未来12个月的价格变化
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Price Fluctuations in the next 12 months
全国
East
东部
Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey 数据来源：尼尔森消费者信心调查
Middle
中部
West Northeast
西部 东北部
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5
一线 二线 三线 四线 五线
对于经济状况的坚定信心与消费者对就业前景的预期和对个人财政状况
Tier 1 and Tier 5 consumers.
未来十二个月当地就业前景 Local Job Prospects in the next 12 Months
69
未来十二个月个人财政状况 State of Personal Finances in the next 12 months
68 67
– 样本量：超过3400+消费者 Sample Size: 3400+ consumers – 调研时间：2009年11月13日至12月10日 Survey Period: Nov.11 – Dec.10, 2009 – 调研频率：每季度一次 Frequency: quarterly
• 数据收集 Data Collection
Panel based samples: same respondents each wave
• 全国数据报告，包括五个城镇级别和四大地理区域
Reporting nationally, for 5 city tiers, and 4 geographical regions
– 城市级别定义 City Tier Definitions
– 地区定义 Region Definitions
东ቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱ地区
East 北京 Beijing 天津 Tianjin 河北 Hebei 上海 Shanghai 江苏 Jiangsu 浙江 Zhejiang 福建 Fujian 山东 Shandong 广东 Guangdong
中部地区
Central 山西 Shanxi 安徽 Anhui 江西 Jiangxi 河南 Henan 湖北 Hubei 湖南 Hunan
• 2009年中国快速消费品零售额增长率达到10%，发出经济反弹强劲信号
As a result FCMG value sales growth went up 10% in November 2009, which clearly shows a strong sign of recovery.
如何为2010年经济转型做好充分准备？
海南 Hainan
西部地区
West 内蒙 Innermengolia 广西 Guangxi 重庆 Chongqing 四川 Sichuan 贵州 Guizhou 云南 Yunnan 西藏 Xizang 陕西 Shanxi 甘肃 Gansu 青海 Qinghai 宁夏 Ningxia 新疆 Xinjiang
CCI up 3 points in China in the last wave.
• 消费者信心提升主要受到西部省份以及一线和五线城镇消费者推动
Growth mainly driven by the West provinces/ Tier 1 and Tier 5 consumers.
• 对整体经济环境信心增强系消费者看好就业前景的直接结果
– 一线城市：在线访问/二、三、四线城市：电话访问/乡镇：入户访问
Online for Tier 1, CATI for Tier 2-4 and FTF for Town/Village – 农村入户访问由国家统计局经济景气中心负责开展
FTF interview in Town/Village was conducted by CEMAC – 固定样本：每次调查受访者相同