40.0
厂价
20.0
格指
数
0.0
1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
固定资产投资价格指数
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
固定
40.0
资产
投资
20.0
价格
0.0
指数
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
16 14 12 10
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12
1930
Consumer Price Index
14 percent in 1947
Minus 10 percent in 1932
Inflation Averaged 3.4 percent a year.
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Some Danger Signs
FEDERAL RESERVE
Sell Bonds to Public
Individuals
Give Dollars to Fed
Individuals have less money to spend
Possible Recession
More Warning Signs
• By June, he was bankrupt.
Jim Meets Teresa
• Today, Jim works as a consultant顾问 for one of his old Japanese competitors during the day and studies macroeconomics at night in an executive MBA program.
Japanese Imports Into US Become Less Expensive
Decrease in Demand For Jim’s Computer Components
Disaster Strikes
• By Thanksgiving, Jim found himself sitting on a huge inventory that he couldn’t give away, and by December he was unable to pay a huge loan that wouldn’t go away.
• Rates had been stable for over three years now, and it shouldn’t be any problem.
• What Teresa failed to see, however, were numerous warning signs of growing inflationary pressures.
• He sits in the front row of class right next to Teresa.
• Teresa利用银行贷款购买了一处住宅，贷 款利率是浮动的。
Some Warning Signs
• Sure, Teresa felt a little nervous about choosing the variable rate, but the mortgage banker told her not to worry.
What Jim Wells Ignored
• Unfortunately, Jim’s college studies never included a course in macroeconomics so he missed some rather significant danger signs.
4625000
5
6300000
5
151700
8
中国居民消费价格指数
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
居民消
40.0
费价格
20.0
指数
0.0
1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
中国商品零售价格指数
1978 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
商
品
零
售Hale Waihona Puke 价工业品出厂价格指数
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
工业
60.0
品出
– With the climb in interest rates, the economy plunged into a recession -- taking the real estate market down with it.
• Teresa tried to sell her house at the original price, but finally, she unloaded it for $25,000 less than she bought it for – losing every cent of her equity.
Fall in Value of the Dollar
Price of Imports Increase
Disaster Strikes
• Within two years, interest rates had climbed into the double digits, and Teresa could no longer afford her skyrocketing mortgage payments.
• Defined as an upward movement of prices from one year to the next.
• Measured by the percentage change in price indices such as the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price Index, or the so-called GDP deflator.
Consumer Less Confidence =Spending
+
Unemployment = Less Spending
Recessionary Implications
More Warning Signs
Expansionary Monetary Policy
Value of Yen Relative to Dollar
宏观经济学-导论
• 一、宏观经济学与微观经济学
• 1、微观与宏观的界定
• 微观经济学是研究个别厂商与家庭在市场上如何扮演 产品供给者、消费者和要素供给者等行为，这些供需 行为如何决定个别物品、劳务的价格、数量；以及这 些市场的机能与政府如何影响资源的配置。分析的目 的是要了解资源的配置是否满足人们的要求。由于分 析的焦点是“相对价格”的决定与影响，因此又称为 价格理论。
• 二、宏观经济问题
• 1、国内问题
• Inflation • Unemployment • The Rate of Economic Growth • Movements in the Business Cycle
• 2、国际问题 • 外汇收支平衡 • 贸易发展与汇率
Macro Problem #1: Inflation
– Since he never had any trouble moving the inventory, Jim decided to do the same thing again -- even though it meant taking out a big short term loan to finance the expansion.
Some Inflation Indices
• The Producer Price Index is based on a number of important raw materials.
• The Consumer Price Index or “CPI” is calculated by pricing a basket of goods and services purchased by a typical household.
元）
幅
衣着：
套装 平跟船鞋 娱乐：
1500
0
295
14
宴会（容纳40人，罗杰威尔斯餐厅）
5040
0
歌剧（两张演出季节票大都会歌剧院，周六晚包厢）
2250
9
食物
鱼子酱（贝鲁佳。马罗索尔牌，1公升） 香槟（多姆。佩里格农牌，一箱）
1478
0
947
7
交通费用 飞机（李尔35A,标准设施，乘员10人） 直升机（西克尔斯机S-76，商务型） 汽车（劳斯莱斯“银色幽灵”）
• 3、微观经济学与宏观经济学是相辅相成的
Jim Wells’ Decision
• Jim Wells used to own a manufacturing business that made high precision components for computer games.