Chapterl」roduction to Supply Chain Management1. 【supply chain The system of suppliers, manu facturers, tran sportati on, distributors, and ven dors thatexists to tran sform raw materials to final products and supply those products to customers.2. 【supply chain management! SCM is a bus in ess n etwork coveri ng from buying, making, movi ng,warehous ing to selli ng.3. 【What makes supply chain management difficult?Supply cha in strategies cannot be determ ined in isolatio n. They are directly affected by ano ther cha in that most orga ni zatio ns have, the developme nt cha in.It is challe nging to desig n and operate a supply cha in so that total systemwide costs are mini mized, and systemwide service levels are mai ntai ned.Un certa inty and risk are in here nt in every supply cha in.4. 【Strategies for SCMGlobal Optimization （全局优化）Managing Uncertainty （管理不确定性）5. 【Why is Global Optimization Hard?The supply cha in is a complex n etwork.Differe nt facilities in the supply cha in freque ntly have differe nt, con flict ing objectives.The supply cha in is a dyn amic system.System variati ons over time6. 【Why Is Uncertainty Hard to Deal With?Matchi ng supply and dema nd is a major challe nge.Forecasting doesn ' t solve the problem.Inven tory and back-order levels typically fluctuate con siderably across the supply cha in, eve n whe n customer dema nd for specific products does not vary greatly.Dema nd is not the only source of un certa in ty.Recent trends such as lean manufacturing, outsourcing, and offshoring that focus on reduction in crease risks sig nifica ntly.7. 【The three principles of all forecasting techniquesForecast ing is always wrong. The Ion ger the forecast horiz on , the worse the forecast. Aggregateforecasts are more accurate.Chapter2」nventory Management, Supply Contracts and Risk Pooling1. 【何时低（高）于平均需求l If the cost of not selli ng an additi on al un it is larger tha n the profit from selli ngan additi onal un it, the optimal qua ntity in gen eral will be less tha n average dema nd, while if the reverse is true, the optimal order qua ntity in gen eral will be greater tha n average dema nd.2. 【平均需求与最优订货量的关系l The optimal order quantity is not necessarily equal to average, or forecastdema nd.3. 【Coefficient of variationCoefficie nt of variati on ----------------------The Stan dard deviati on measures the absolute variability of customer dema nds, the coefficie nt of variati on measures variability relative to average dema nd.4. 【Risk Pooling: three critical pointsCen traliz ing inven tory con trol reduces both safety stock and average inven tory level for the same service level.The higher the coefficie nt of variati on, the greater the ben efit obta ined from cen tralized systems; that is, the greater the ben efit from risk Pooli ng.The ben efits from risk Pooli ng depe nd on the behavior of dema nd from one market relative to dema ndfrom ano ther.5. 【Forecasting MethodsJudgment methods （判断方法）Market research methods （市场研究方法）Time Series methods （时间序列方法）Causal methods （因果方法）以上为定性方法，为定量方法。

6. 【Inventory Managemen'controlling methodsContinuous review policy （持续检查策略）Periodic review policy （定期检查策略）7. 【（s, S） Policy Whenever the inventory position drops below a certain level, s, we order to raise the inventory positi on to level S.（s, S的计算：The reorder point （s） has two comp onen ts:a. To acco unt for average dema nd duri ng lead time: LTAVGb. To account for deviations from average （we call this safety stock）:z STD —where z is chosen from statistical tables to ensure that the probability of stockouts during leadtime is100%-SL.Since there is a fixed cost, we order more than up to the reorder point:Q=The total order-up-to level is: S=Q+s注: AVG = average daily dema ndSTD = sta ndard deviatio n of daily dema ndLT = reple ni shme nt lead time in daysh = holdi ng cost of one unit for one daySL = service level （for example, 95%）. This implies that the probability ofStocki ng out is 100%-SL （for example, 5%）K = fixed costAlso, the Inventory Position at any time is the actual inventory plus itemsalready ordered, but not yet delivered.8. 【Judgment MethodsAssemble the opinion of expertsSalesforce composite combines salespeople ' s e销售人员汇集意见）Pan els of experts - intern al, exter nal, both （专家座谈）Delphi method （德尔菲方法）：a. Each member surveyedb. Opinions are compiledc. Each member is given the opportunity to change his opinion.9. 【Supply ContractsBuy-Back Con tracts 回购合同）：The seller agrees to buy back un sold goods from the buyer for some agreed-up on price higher tha n the salvage value.Reve nu e-Shari ng Con tracts 收入共享合同）：The buyer shares some of its reve nue with the seller, i n retur n for a disco unt on the wholesale price.Global Optimizati on Con tracts （全局优化合同）：This un biased decisi on maker would con sider the two supply chain partners, the supplier and the buyer, as two members of the same organization. That is, the transfer of money between the parties is ignored and the unbiased decision maker will maximize supply cha in profit.Qua ntity Flexibility Con tracts （数量灵活合同）：Supplier provides full refund for returned items as long as the nu mber of retur ns is no larger tha n a certa in qua ntity.Sales Rebate Con tracts （销售回扣合同）：Supplier provides a direct incen tive to the retailer to in crease sales by means of a rebate paid by the supplier for any item sold above a certa in qua ntity.Chapter3.Logistics Network Configuration1. 【物流网络配置】2. 【数据处理】3. 【网络技术】4. 【Solution Technique】sMathematical optimization techniques:a. Exact algorithms: find optimal solutions （准确算法）b. Heuristics: find “good” solutions, not necessarily opti（a启发式算法）Simulation models: provide a mechanism to evaluate specified design alternatives created by the designer.Chapter4.The Value of Information1. 【“ In modern supply chains, information replaces invento】ry I think it is”true because information:Helps reduce variability Helps improve forecasts Enables coordination of systems and strategies Improves customer service Facilitates lead time reductions Enables firms to react more quickly to changing market conditions.2. 【What is the Bullwhip Effect?】O rd e r variability is amplified （放大）the supply chain; upstreamechelons （梯度）face higher variability.3. 【What are the causes the Bullwhip Effec】t?Promotional sales：Forward buyingVolume and transportation discounts：BatchingInflated orders：IBM Aptiva orders increased by 2-3 times when retailers thought that IBM would be out of stock over ChristmasDema nd forecast ing： Order-up-to poi nts are modified as forecasts cha nge - orders in crease more than forecastsLong cycle times：Long lead times magnify this effect4. 【Methods for Coping with the Bullwhip Effe】ctReduce uncertainty：POS; Sharing information; Sharing forecasts and policiesReduce variability：Eliminate promotions; Year-round low pricingReduce lead times：EDI; Cross dockingStrategic partnerships：Vendor managed inventory （VMI）; Data sharing5. 【集中信息】Chapter5.Supply Chain Integration1. 【Supply Chain Strategi】esPush Strategies：特点：a. Production decisions based on long-term forecastsb. Ordering decisions based on inventory & forecasts缺点：a. Inability to meet changing demand patterns.b. The obsolescence of supply chain inventory as demand for certain products disappears.c. The bullwhip effect: Excessive inven tory（库存过多）,Excessive product ion variability Poor servicelevelsPull Strategies：特点：Production is demand drivena. Production and distribution coordinated with true customer demandb. Firms respond to specific orders优点：Reduced lead times (better an ticipati on)Decreased inven tory levels at retailers and manu facturers Decreased system variabilityBetter resp onse to cha nging markets缺点：a. Harder to leverage economies of scaleb. Doesn' t work in all cases Push-Pull Supply Chai nsCharacteristics and Skillsa. b. c. d. Object Complexity FocusPullRaw MaterialPushCost Nlinimization HighResource Allocation LongSupplychain planningService Level LowResponsiveness ShortOrder fulfillment wIrvIIIrife2.【模型图】CustomersPullHDemand uncertainn'D E LK Ery qj 碰 Unit price PushPullPushFfonauiLes ofScale3. 【The impact of lead time and dema nd un certa inty 】Chapter6.Strategic Alliances1. 【Strategic AllianceiS Strategic allia nces are typically multifaceted 侈方位的）,goal-orie nted, I on g-term part nerships betwee n two compa nies in which both risks and rewards are shared.2. 【The alliance will help address the following iss 】esAdding value to products （增加产品价值） Improvi ng market access （改善市场进入） Strengthening operations （强化运作管理）Adding technological strength （增强技术力量） Enhancing strategic growth （促进战略成长） Enhancing organizational skills （提高组织技能） Building financial strength （建立财务优势） 3.【Types of Strategic PartneringMain Characteristics of SPI CriteriaTypesDecision XldkerInventory Owu^rsLiPNev Skills Employed byVendors QuickKetail erRetailer Forecasting Skills Coiitiauous RepkuislinieiiiContractually Agreed to Le%-elsEither PartyForecast!口电 & In 矿 entoryControlAdtaucMl Contiuuou j RqpktiklimentContracrually agreed to & CcntLfiuoviElylmprcn ?ed LevelsEither Party roreeastirig Ar lnvetttor>_Control\'endorEither PartyRetail Managemerrt4. 【Advantages of S 】Fully utilize system kno wledge Decrease required inven tory levels Improve service levelsDecrease work duplicati on Improve forecastsPullPushIIPull■Inventoiy positioning . Conrinucus C replenisliinentPush __________Lead timeHLShoilDemand Uncertainn p5. 【Disadvantages of S】P Expensive advanced technology is required. Supplier/retailer trust must bedeveloped. Supplier responsibility increases. Expenses at the supplier often increase.6. 【What are the advantages of 3PL】? Focus on core strengths Provides technological flexibility ProvidesOther flexibility in geography，workforce size，additional services and resource flexibility7. 【What are the disadvantages of 3P】L? Loss of control 3PL employees may interact with customersSharing of confidential infoChapter7.Procurement and Outsourcing1. 【Outsourcing Benefit】s Economies of scale reduce manufacturing costsRisk pooli ng -dema nd un certa in ties are tran sferred Reduce capital investment Focus on corecompetency Increased flexibility2. 【Outsourcing Risk】sLoss of competitive knowledge Conflicting objectives3. 【Reasons for outsourcin】g Dependency on capacity Dependency on knowledge4. 【Product architectur】eModular products：a. Components are independent of each otherb. Components are interchangeablec. Standard interfaces are usedd. A component can be designed or upgraded with little or no regard to other Componentse. Customer performance determines the product configuration Integrals productsa. Not made from off-the-shelf componentsb. Designed as a system by taking a top-down design approachc. Evaluated based on system performance, not based on component performanced. Components in integrals products perform multiple functions5. 【A Framework for Outsourcin】gPropuct厂Depe ndent: knowledge, capacityIndep: knowledge Dep: capacityIndep.:Xn owledgecapacity ^ModularOutsourcing risky OutsourcingopportunityOutsourcing can reduce costIntegralOutsourci ng ver/ risky Outsourcing optionKeep internal7.【Functional productsInnovativeproducts Product cloclispecd Slow FastDemand ch ar act eristics Predictable 1_ npredictable Profit IMargin LoivHigh Product variedVLoivHigh Average forecast error at the time productiou is cammitted Low High Average stockcut rateCT 1LowHigh1. 【Forces Driving Globalization 全球供应链的驱动力）】 Global Market Forces Tech no logical Forces Global Cost ForcesPolitical and Econo mic Forces 2. 【Many Sources of RisksNatural disasters Geopolitical risksBoitlenefklteins■EtisuTe supplyStrategic Item«■Form partnershipsNon-Cntica] Items•Simplifr andautomateLeverage Items •Exploitpurchasing power and minimize costL QWLawProfit ImpactEpidemicsTerrorist attacksVolatile fuel priceCurrency fluctuationsPort delaysMarket changesSupplier ' s performanceForecasting accuracyExecution problems以上~ 属于不可控风险，介于可控与不可控风险之间，属于可控风险，剩余的为可控风险。