二、货币政策做不到的
Or to peg the rate of change in a nominal quantity 或者钉住名义数量之变动率 the rate of inflation ——通货膨胀率 the rate of deflation ——通货紧缩率 the rate of growth in nominal national income ——名义国民收入增长率 the rate of decline in nominal national income ——名义国民收入下降率 the rate of growth of the quantity of money ——货币数量增长率。
二、货币政策做不到的
二、以失业率为评判依据： A lower level of unemployment is an indication that there is an excess demand for labor that will produce upward pressure on real wage rates. 一个较低的失业水平意味着，存在着对劳动 力的过度需求，对实际工资比率产生了高的 压力。
二、货币政策做不到的
1、 monetary policy cannot peg interest rates for more than very limited periods ——在有限的时期内，货币政策无法钉住利率
2、monetary policy cannot peg the rate of unemployment for more than very limited periods
the level of real national income—— 实际国民收入水平
the real quantity of money——实际货币数量 the rate of growth of real national income —— 实际国民收入增长率 or the rate of growth of the real quantity of money
The Role of Monetary Policy ----Milton Friedman
货币政策的作用
------米尔顿· 弗里德曼
王慧敏 2012.11.07
一、货币政策的历史 二、货币政策做不到的
三、货币政策能做到的
四、应如何施行货：
high employmeng——充分就业 stable prices——物价稳定 rapid growth——持续稳定增长
（国际收支平衡）
一、货币政策的历史
货币政策是绳索一根，可以中止通货膨胀，不可 以阻止经济衰退。——大萧条
凯恩斯认为货币政策无效，而财政政策有效。 直到1929-1933年间，货币政策重新评价。
凯恩斯：货币当局的扩张政策对于萧条无能为力。 事实证明：银行系统提供过多流动资产。
一、货币政策的历史
二、货币政策做不到的
A higher level of unemployment is an indication that there is an excess supply of labor that will produce downward pressure on real wage rates. 一较高的失业水平意味着，存在着对劳动力 的过度供给，进而对实际工资比率产生了降 低的压力。
二、货币政策做不到的
The analysis of the relation between unemployment and wage change is deservedly celebrated as an important and original contribution. But,unfortunately, it contains a basic defect the failure to distinguish between nominal wages and real wages 菲利蒲斯对失业与工资变动之间的关系问题的分析毫无疑 问地是一项重要的，有创造性的贡献。
—— 实际货币数量增长率
三、货币政策能做到的
The first effection ：
monetary policy can prevent money itself from being a major source of economic disturbance.
是货币政策能够防止货币本身成为经济波动的一个主要根 源。 Every major inflation has been produced by monetary expansion mostly to meet the overriding demands of war. 每一次重大的通货膨胀都是由货币扩张所引起——这些货 币扩张大多数都是为了满足可恶的战争需要。
收入的增长——提升人们的流动性偏好 和对贷款的需求；
二、货币政策做不到的
影响三：
Rising income—— raise prices —— reduce the real quantity of money
收入的增长——价格水平上升——实际 货币量下降。
二、货币政策做不到的
影响四： higher rate of monetary growth—— rising prices—— the public come to expect that prices will continue to rise— — lenders will demand higher interest rates 货币增长率较高——价格上升——公众预期 价格会继续上升——贷款方会要求更高的利息 率
二、货币政策做不到的
It cannot use its control over nominal quantities to peg a real quantity
货币当局无法利用其对名义数量的控制而钉住实际数量
the real rate of interest——实际利率 the rate of unemployment——失业率
——在有限的时期内，货币政策无法钉住失业率
二、货币政策做不到的
一、盯住利率：
影响一：
buy securities——raise their prices and lower their yields——in the process，increase the quantity of reserves available to bank——hence the amount of bank credit——hence the total quantity of money— —lower interest rates——stimulate spending
二、货币政策做不到的
As an empirical matter： low interest rates are a sign that monetary policy has been tight-in the sense that the quantity of money has grown slowly high interest rates are a sign that monetary policy has been easy-in the sense that the quantity of money has grown rapidly. 从经验来看:
低利率是紧缩货币政策的征兆，从货币量增长缓慢来看；
高利率是宽松货币政策的征兆，从货币量急速增长来看。
二、货币政策做不到的
in fact： The broadest facts of experience run in precisely the opposite direction from that which the financial community and academic economists have all generally taken for granted. 各财政当局和经济学界的学者们普遍认可的 那些东西，与实践所提供的最广泛的证据， 恰好是背道而驰的。
an exchange rate——汇率
the price level——价格水平 the nominal level of national income ——国民收入的名义数量 the quantity of money by one or another definition ——以这种或那种定义的货币的数量
一、货币政策的历史
如今，货币政策的作用主要是：
primacy：promotion of full employment ——促进充分就业 secondary：prevention of inflation continue ——防止持续通货膨胀
评价标准：
money market condition interest rates and the quantity of money ——注重货币市场状况、利率和货币量 the state of employment itself should be the criterion ——就业情况本身应该成为衡量货币政策的大致依据
三、货币政策能做到的
The second effection ：
monetary policy can do is provide a stable back ground for the economy. 是为经济的运行提供一个稳定的环境。
三、货币政策能做到的
The finally effection ： Monetary policy can contribute to offsetting major disturbances in the economic system arising from other sources. 货币政策有助于抵消经济体系中来自其 它方面的主要波动。 潜力有限