2012年2期【更新至11月11日】国内钢市如期进入调整,季节性因素决定了钢市将继续走弱。
但受“十八大”召开,稳增长、扩内需的影响,短期钢市将继续调整。
美国飓风,市场成交几乎为零,但是各方当对灾后需求略有期待。
欧洲薄板价格继续走低,亚洲市场无明显改观。
国内钢材市场窄幅震荡。
国内钢材市场维持震荡调整走势,建筑钢价格回落库存增加,板材价格略坚挺,库存小幅回落,钢材价格指数基本持平。
季节性因素决定了钢材后市将将继续走弱,由于十八大的维温因素市场不会有太大波动。
过去的一周,钢铁原材料价格整体回落,后市由于需求不振,仍将维持弱势运行格局。
过去一个月内中国保税仓库和上期铜库存升至历史高位,反映出下游去库存(导致精炼铜订单相对平缓)、中国铜冶炼产能利用率回升以及融资铜导致过度进口持续存在等因素的共同作用。
尽管如此,看好2013年上半年前景的观点仍保持不变。
预计,中国下游去库存告一段落、建设完工项目强劲增长、中国房地产销售持续回升以及基建固定资产投资快速增长将抵消其他领域持续疲弱的影响;而且中国政府换届的顺利完成将为国内铜需求和市场信心提供支撑。
鉴于高盛全球领先指数的反弹走势、近期新兴市场放松货币政策而且预期美国将有进一步定量放松政策出台,全球需求和市场信心也有望在2013年上半年回暖。
营业收入利润率市净率钢铁行业钢铁下游汽车产量固定资产投资焦炭铁矿石炉料行业财务估值钢材价格钢材库存钢材产量钢材出口Start废钢生铁钢铁行业及下游•国内主要钢材品种价格•主要钢材品种社会库存•生铁、粗钢、钢材及铁合金产量•钢材出口量•汽车产量与钢材产量对比•国定资产投资与钢材产量对比•货运量与钢材产量对比0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.001401501601701801902002102202011-05-132011-06-032011-06-242011-07-152011-08-052011-08-262011-09-162011-10-072011-10-282011-11-182011-12-092011-12-302012-01-202012-02-102012-03-022012-03-232012-04-132012-05-042012-05-252012-06-152012-07-062012-07-272012-08-172012-09-072012-09-282012-10-19国际钢铁价格指数(CRU):全球0.23%钢材综合价格指数0.36%1001201401601802002202402011-09-232011-10-072011-10-212011-11-042011-11-182011-12-022011-12-162011-12-302012-01-132012-01-272012-02-102012-02-242012-03-092012-03-232012-04-062012-04-202012-05-042012-05-182012-06-012012-06-152012-06-292012-07-132012-07-272012-08-102012-08-242012-09-072012-09-212012-10-052012-10-192012-11-02国际钢铁价格指数(CRU):北美-3.15%国际钢铁价格指数(CRU):欧洲0.29%国际钢铁价格指数(CRU):亚洲2.25%801001201401601802002202402602011-10-282011-11-112011-11-252011-12-092011-12-232012-01-062012-01-202012-02-032012-02-172012-03-022012-03-162012-03-302012-04-132012-04-272012-05-112012-05-252012-06-082012-06-222012-07-062012-07-202012-08-032012-08-172012-08-312012-09-142012-09-282012-10-122012-10-26钢材价格指数:长材0.41%钢材价格指数:板材0.37%国际钢铁价格指数(CRU):扁平材0.81%国际钢铁价格指数(CRU):长材-0.63%0.00%1.05%0.00%0.02%0.49%0.26%-0.32%0.06%-0.40%-0.20%0.00%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%1.20%主要钢材品种涨跌幅( 截至2012-10-26 当周)3,000.003,200.003,400.003,600.003,800.004,000.004,200.004,400.004,600.004,800.005,000.002011-10-102011-10-312011-11-212011-12-122012-01-022012-01-232012-02-132012-03-052012-03-262012-04-162012-05-072012-05-282012-06-182012-07-092012-07-302012-08-202012-09-102012-10-012012-10-22北京2.08%天津2.04%广州3.53%上海3.82%沈阳1.07%武汉2.32%重庆2.06%3,500.004,000.004,500.005,000.005,500.006,000.00-10-10-10-31-11-21-12-12-01-02-01-23-02-13-03-05-03-26-04-16-05-07-05-28-06-18-07-09-07-30-08-20-09-10-10-01-10-22北京0.00%天津0.69%广州0.88%上海0.65%沈阳0.65%武汉1.16%重庆0.89%3,000.003,500.004,000.004,500.005,000.005,500.006,000.006,500.007,000.007,500.008,000.0010-1811-0111-1511-2912-1312-2701-1001-2402-0702-2103-0603-2004-0304-1705-0105-1505-2906-1206-2607-1007-2408-0708-2109-0409-1810-0210-1610-30热轧板卷:3.0mm 3.82%冷轧板卷:1.0mm 0.65%中板:低合金20mm 2.84%中板:普20mm 3.55%0.476mm 彩涂扳0.00%0.5mm 镀锌板0.00%2,8003,3003,8004,3004,8005,30011-1111-2512-0912-2301-0601-2002-0302-1703-0203-1603-3004-1304-2705-1105-2506-0806-2207-0607-2008-0308-1708-3109-1409-2810-1210-2611-09单位:元/吨北京-2.51%天津-0.85%广州0.00%上海 2.29%沈阳-1.40%武汉0.26%重庆0.51%2,9003,4003,9004,4004,9005,4001-111-252-092-231-061-202-032-173-023-163-304-134-275-115-256-086-227-067-208-038-178-319-149-280-120-261-09单位:元/吨北京-2.33%天津-1.82%广州-0.47%上海1.82%沈阳-0.56%武汉0.26%重庆0.00%1002003004005006007008009007-088-038-299-240-201-152-111-062-012-273-244-195-156-107-068-018-279-220-18单位:万吨螺纹钢-0.13%线材 1.64%热卷-6.20%中板-8.94%冷轧-1.56%20.0010.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000159159159159159生铁2012-09 月产量5,289.60 万吨当月同比增1.60 %(右)20.0010.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000010509010509010509010509010509粗钢2012-09 月产量5,794.60 万吨当月同比增0.60 %(右)20.0010.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000-02-06-10-02-06-10-02-06-10-02-06-10-02-06-10钢材2012-10 月产量8,181.00 万吨当月同比增11.70 %(右)-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.000.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00-01-05-09-01-05-09-01-05-09-01-05-09-01-05-09铁合金2012-09 月产量267.87 万吨当月同比增18.18 %(右)6004002000200400600800-02-04-06-08-10-12-02-04-06-08-10-12-02-04-06单位:万吨2012-10 月,钢材当月出口量:万吨同比增26.70%2012-10 月,钢材当月进口量:万吨同比增-14.17%2012-10 月,钢材净进口量:万吨同比增-119.00 万吨1002003004005006007002010-032010-052010-072010-092010-112011-012011-032011-052011-072011-092011-112012-012012-032012-052012-072012-09标准紧固件-4.35%钢铁管配件7.69%棒材120.69%角钢及型钢34.78%管材18.14%板材0.86%线材7.14%1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000501001502002502008-012008-042008-072008-102009-012009-042009-072009-102010-012010-042010-072010-102011-012011-042011-072011-102012-012012-042012-072012-102012-10 汽车:产量:当月值同比增4.49%2012-10 钢材:产量:当月值同比增11.96%550.00750.00950.001,150.001,350.001,550.001,750.00050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,0002007-072007-102008-012008-042008-072008-102009-012009-042009-072009-102010-012010-042010-072010-102011-012011-042011-072011-102012-012012-042012-072012-102012-10 固定资产投资完成额:累计值同比增21.20%2012-09 产量:钢筋:当月值同比增14.65%1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,0000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.002008-022008-052008-082008-112009-022009-052009-082009-112010-022010-052010-082010-112011-022011-052011-082011-112012-022012-052012-082012-09 货运量总计:当月值同比增11.78%2012-10 钢材:产量:当月值同比增11.96%钢铁行业上游-炉料•铁矿石价格•铁矿石主要港口库存•铁矿石进口量•铁矿石原矿产量•焦炭产量及价格•废钢及生铁价格-250.00-200.00 -150.00 -100.00 -50.00 0.00 750.00800.00 850.00 900.00 950.00 1000.00 1050.00 1100.00 1150.00 1200.00 2012-04-232012-05-072012-05-212012-06-042012-06-182012-07-022012-07-162012-07-302012-08-132012-08-272012-09-102012-09-242012-10-082012-10-222012-11-05粉矿价差:巴西到岸价-迁安价差周环比走扩9.08 元/吨青岛港:巴西:粉矿:64.5%:车板价周环比上涨-0.09%铁精粉价格:66%干基含税:迁安周环比上涨-0.96%600.00700.00800.00900.001,000.001,100.001,200.001,300.002012-04-112012-04-252012-05-092012-05-232012-06-062012-06-202012-07-042012-07-182012-08-012012-08-152012-08-292012-09-122012-09-262012-10-102012-10-242012-11-07车板价:青岛港:巴西:粉矿:64.5% 0.60%车板价:青岛港:印度:粉矿:63.5% 0.00%车板价:日照港:澳大利亚:PB 粉矿:61.5% 1.21%700.00800.00900.001,000.001,100.001,200.001,300.002012-02-132012-02-272012-03-122012-03-262012-04-092012-04-232012-05-072012-05-212012-06-042012-06-182012-07-022012-07-162012-07-302012-08-132012-08-272012-09-102012-09-242012-10-082012-10-222012-11-05迁安-0.96%迁西-1.00%邯邢2.56%沙河0.00%遵化0.00%北京2.79%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.002012-04-032012-04-172012-05-012012-05-152012-05-292012-06-122012-06-262012-07-102012-07-242012-08-072012-08-212012-09-042012-09-182012-10-022012-10-162012-10-30铁矿石海运费:巴西图巴朗-北仑/宝山(BCI-C3) -3.95%铁矿石海运费:西澳-北仑/宝山(BCI-C5) -5.56%铁矿石海运费:印度-青岛/日照(EC) -0.70% (截至11月8日)-1,000.00-500.000.00500.001,000.001,500.000.001,000.002,000.003,000.004,000.005,000.006,000.007,000.008,000.002009-032009-052009-072009-092009-112010-012010-032010-052010-072010-092010-112011-012011-032011-052011-072011-092011-112012-012012-032012-052012-072012-092012-10 月,中国港口铁矿石库存合计环比增加-386.10 万吨2012-09 月,中国进口铁矿石6,500.57 万吨,同比增7.33% ,环比增4.09%2012-10 月,青岛港进口巴西铁矿石64.5%粉矿车板价环比上涨6.41% ,至830.00 元/湿吨0.002,000.004,000.006,000.008,000.0010,000.0012,000.002011-07-152011-08-152011-09-152011-10-152011-11-152011-12-152012-01-152012-02-152012-03-152012-04-152012-05-152012-06-152012-07-152012-08-152012-09-152012-10-15注:图例数值为进口的各地区铁矿石港口库存,周环比增量其他-3 万吨印度-40 万吨巴西-41 万吨澳洲-36 万吨0.001,000.002,000.003,000.004,000.005,000.006,000.007,000.008,000.002009-042009-062009-082009-102009-122010-022010-042010-062010-082010-102010-122011-022011-042011-062011-082011-102011-122012-022012-042012-062012-08注:图例百分比各地区铁矿进口占比的同比增幅其他16.08%南非0.94%印度-4.56%巴西-0.04%澳洲5.29%-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.004002,4004,4006,4008,40010,40012,40014,4002009-062009-082009-102009-122010-022010-042010-062010-082010-102010-122011-022011-042011-062011-082011-102011-122012-022012-042012-062012-08单位:万吨2012-09 月铁矿石原矿产量为12,906.20 万吨当月同比增加20.30 % 环比增加10.72%5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002008-022008-042008-062008-082008-102008-122009-022009-042009-062009-082009-102009-122010-022010-042010-062010-082010-102010-122011-022011-042011-062011-082011-102011-122012-022012-042012-062012-082012-10产量:焦炭:当月值-4.89%二级冶金焦价格:上海:MONTHLY -28.64%二级冶金焦价格:平顶山:MONTHLY -33.75%2,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002012-02-162012-03-012012-03-152012-03-292012-04-122012-04-262012-05-102012-05-242012-06-072012-06-212012-07-052012-07-192012-08-022012-08-162012-08-302012-09-132012-09-272012-10-112012-10-252012-11-08单位:元/吨废钢:上海(含税价) 3.85%铸造生铁:上海(含税价) 0.00%。