2010 1.0402 1.0057 1.3499 1.1332 1.2144 1.0568 1.1568 -0.0237
2009 1.2536 1.0027 0.8749 0.9701 1.0041 0.9923 0.9915 -0.2039
2008 0.8415 0.9937 0.8905 1.1070 0.9835 1.0007 1.0204 -0.0354
ROE 第二个驱动因素 资产周转率(Asset Turnover)
Liquidity ratios Year Current ratio Quick ratio Cash ratio Operating cash flow ratio Financial leverage
KO 2010 1.17 0.85 0.61 0.52 2.18
可口可乐公司 财务报表分析
王冠男
公司简介 (Introduction) 战略分析 (Strategy Analysis) 账目分析 (Account Analysis) 信用分析 (Credit Analysis) 财务分析 (Financial Analysis) 前景分析 (Prospective Analysis)
KO 2009 1.28 0.95 0.67 0.60 1.97
KO 2008 0.94 0.62 0.38 0.58 1.98
PEP 2010 1.11 0.80 0.40 0.53 2.85
PEP 2009 1.44 1.00 0.47 0.78 2.63
PEP 2008 1.23 0.79 0.26 0.80 2.41
The Framework
根据一项20世纪的调查，全世界最流行的三个词分别是：上帝、她、 可口可乐
• 可口可乐公司介绍 • 可口可乐的诞生与发展 • 可口可乐的市场现况
Introduction
Coca-Cola’s Products
-通用格式
-通用格式
-通用格式
-通用格式
-通用格式
销售收入
-通用格式
现金流分析 现金流分析 (Cash Flow Analysis) • 主要分析现金流量表 (Cash Flow Statement)
ROE decomposition Year Net Profit Margin (ROS) (%) * Asset turnover = Return on assets (ROA) (%) * Financial leverage = Return on equity (%)
PEP 2009 1.28 45.09 21.38 31.08 16.31 21.27 23.41
PEP 2008 1.97 67.96 49.15 40.46 24.53 22.34 27.98
Net debt-to-net capital (%) 23.70 Interest coverage (earning based) 20.36 Interest coverage (cash flow based) 17.26
KO 2010 1.33 74.77 38.57 42.78
KO 2009 0.92 46.79 10.44 31.87 8.78 25.97 29.81
KO 2008 0.94 44.65 20.78 30.87 16.54 17.98 22.01
PEP 2010 2.17 115.93 86.27 53.69 35.92 10.10 12.45
账目分析 - Beneish Model
M =-4.840 + 0.920 x DSRI + 0.528 x GMI + 0.404 x AQI + 0.892 x SGI + 0.115 x DEPI - 0.172 x SAI - 0.327 x LVGI + 4.679 x TATA
2010 M-Score Normsdist(M) -2.3271 1.00% 2009 -3.2719 0.05% 2008 -2.7523 0.30%
供应商的议价能力 (Bargaining power of suppliers)
行业分析 (Industrial Analysis)
态势分析法 SWOT Analysis
• 行业领先地位 • 健全的销售网络
Strengths
Weaknesses
• 造成肥胖不利健康 • 产品召回事件 (12/2009)
行业内竞争者现在 的竞争能力 (Rivalry among existing firms)
购买者的议价能力 (Bargaining power of buyers)
替代品的替代能力 (Threat of substitute products)
行业利润率
潜在竞争者进入的能力 (Threat of new entrants)
KO 2009
KO 2008
PEP 2010
PEP 2009
PEP 2008
63.86 64.22 64.39 54.74 53.51 52.95 28.17 30.55 30.28 20.92 22.39 19.60 24.06 26.56 26.44 16.90 18.61 16.03 33.63 22.02 18.18 10.93 13.75 11.89
PEP 2010 33.36 47.91 17.38
PEP 2009 41.25 46.55 22.05
PEP 2008 35.15 50.35 17.45
Sustainable growth rate (%) 27.77
可持续增长率 (Sustainable Growth Rate)
Cash flow analysis Year Cash From Operations Cash From Investing Activities Cash from Financing Activities Net Changes in Cash Opening Cash & Cash Equivalents Total Cash Flow
市场份额 (Market Share)
酒精含量低于0.5％ ( 质量比)的天然的 或人工配制的饮 料，又称清凉饮 料、无醇饮料
溶解香精、香料、 色素等溶剂或乳酸 饮料生产过程的副 产物
软饮料制造业 (Soft Drink Industry)
波特五力模型 Porter’s Five Forces Model
KO 2010 33.63 0.58 19.43 2.18 42.33
KO 2009 22.02 0.69 15.30 1.97 30.15
KO 2008 18.18 0.76 13.86 1.98 27.51
PEP 2010 10.93 1.07 11.70 2.85 33.36
PEP 2009 13.75 1.14 15.68 2.63 41.25
ROE 第三个驱动因素 杠杆效应(Financial Leverage)
Sustainable growth rate Year ROE (%) Dividend payout ratio (%)
KO 2010 42.33 34.40
KO 2009 30.15 55.61 13.38
KO 2008 27.51 60.63 10.83
• 积极进军发展中的市场 • 收购北美CCE • 着重销量和价格的结合 Opportunities
• 汇率风险 • 水质和水量 • 消费者喜好正在改变 Threats
Ratio DSRI GMI AQI SGI DEPI SGAI LVGI TATA
Meaning Indicate revenue inflation. Assess the gross margin sustainability. Imply capitalization of cost Suggest the company’s growth character. Show the possibility of change of depreciation rate. Hint the abnormal deferred cost. Evaluate the change of risk. Positively related to the likelihood of manipulation.
ROE 第三个驱动因素 杠杆效应(Financial Leverage)
Debt and coverage ratios Year Liabilities-to-equity Debt-to-equity (%) Net debt-to-equity (%) Debt-to-capital (%)
ROE 第一个驱动因素 净利润率 (Net Profit Margin)
Assets Management Ratios Year Operating WC/Sales Net non-current assets/Sales Operating WC turnover
Net non-current assets turnover
PEP 2008 11.89 1.22 14.56 2.41 35.15
分解ROE
Profitability Ratios Year Gross profit margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) NOPAT margin (%) Net profit margin (%)
KO 2010
0.42 0.31 8.36 8.00 2.89 3.47 8.58 9.05 42.55 40.33 5.07 4.88 71.95 74.74 1.67 1.75 218.01 208.56 0.58 0.69
0.33 0.29 0.27 82.27 86.29 92.22 3.65 3.55 3.78 10.57 9.29 9.54 34.45 39.18 38.17 8.74 7.82 8.46 41.64 46.54 43.03 2.83 2.46 2.59 128.73 147.80 140.37 1.07 1.14 1.22