The global economic recovery exceeded expectations in the third quarterIssue:Recently, I saw a piece of news from China financial news website (2017/10/26) aboutthe global economic recovery. In the third quarter, advanced economies rebounded, emerging economies kept growing at a fast pace, and global trade and investment improved. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the global economy is expected to continue a modest recovery. From the global purchasing managers' index, the global economy continued to maintain a better performance in the third quarter, both in services and manufacturing. The preliminary estimate is that global GDP will grow at an annualized rate of about 3.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2017. Year-on-year growth was about 3.0%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the global economy is expected to continue a modest recovery, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.1 per cent.The development of the issue:Since the second half of 2016, the global economy has gradually shaken off the trend that has been running at a low speed for six years. Driven by domestic demand, the U.S. economy grew by 3 per cent in the second quarter of 2017. The U.S. economy is likely to slow in the third quarter as a result of the storm. The euro zone's economic recovery has been stable and sustained improvement in business and consumer confidence has provided a strong impetus for economic growth. British prices rose by 2.9 per cent in August, more than the bank of England's target of 2 per cent, as a result of a significant depreciation of the pound since the vote to leave the EU. Thanks to the rapid economic growth, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other countries have seen housing prices rise too fast. Developed economies have warmed up, emerging economies have maintained a growth rate of around 5%, and global trade and investment have improved.Effects on the economy of the issueGlobal monetary policy diverged as the economic recovery in different economiesdiverged.Some countries' central Banks say they will cut interest rates, while others say they will raise interest rates.For example:1、The Federal Reserve announced in September 2017 that it formally scaled back itsbalance sheet in October and expects to raise interest rates again this year.2、The bank of Canada has raised interest rates to prevent the property market fromoverheating, and central Banks such as the UK and Australia may follow suit.3、The ECB will not raise rates in the short term, but it also suggests that it is consideringshrinking its balance sheet.4、Brazil's central bank cut interest rates again in September 2017, its eighth rate cut sinceOctober 2016.A striking feature of the global economic recovery is that unemployment has fallen and inflation has not risen significantly. This is accompanied by a decrease in global interest rate levels, even in the United States where the fed has raised the federal funds rate, with the unemployment rate being lower than the historical average, but the long-term interest rate is still low.This round of economic recovery has “low unemployment, low inflation" new features. And I think the reason behind this may be the decline in underlying economic growth, as well as a slowdown in the labor force due to ageing populations.We know the revenue forecast will affect consumers' consumption level, potential growth slowdown will make family lower expectations of future income growth, thus inhibiting investment and consumption, curb inflation rising too fast.Now the world is facing an aging problem, and many advanced economies are experiencing the impact of long-term economic growth and declining labor force. Older people tend to make residents tend to save more. We know that promoting investment is a way for the government to promote economic growth. Residents reduce their appetite for investment and turn to saving, which reduces the likelihood of economic growth. The elderly population does not belong to the labor force, and the decrease of labor force will affect the total output of the country and reduce the growth rate.Suggestion about modifications or alternatives:Active fiscal policy is the government according to the demand of economy development in the financial system with automatic stabilizers effects on economic growth, on the basis of the initiative to increase or reduce government spending, or increase the government revenue decision, to influence macroeconomic operation, realize the goal of the economic development of countries established. It is generally believed, when total spending in the economy that is insufficient aggregate demand, social unemployment continues to increase, the government to implement expansionary fiscal policy, increase government spending, reduce government revenues, stimulate the growth of the total, to solve the problem of recession and unemployment. Conversely, when too much spending in the economy that social total demand, the overall price level from rising continuously, the government wants to pursue a tight fiscal policy, to reduce government spending, increase the government revenue, to curb excess aggregate demand expansion, to solve the problem of inflation. The main means of proactive fiscal policy are: changing the level of government purchase, changing the level of government transfer payment and adjusting tax rate. The attenuation in economic growth, social unemployment continues to increase, the government should by highway, water conservancy projects, urban public facilities such as public works projects to expand government spending or which level of government purchase, expanding the social demand for goods and services, by increasing the social welfare costs, improve the level of transfer payments, through tax measures, to the public for more disposable income1、So I think the central bank should adopt looser monetary policy, mainly including creditpolicy and interest rate policy. Lower bank interest rates can increase demand for loans and encourage overall consumption to make the country's overall GDP growth.2、The government should set up investment incentive policies, including domestic andforeign investment, thus improving the demand for money and recommending economic development. And government should expand expenditure.3、Promotion of foreign trade: The import and export industry is the first to be affected, and there are many employees. One is to increase tax rebates for exports; Second, RMB appreciation is a means to increase export competitiveness4、governmentwill strengthen social security and medical care in the public finances, and maintain a stable environment for social and economic development.。