财务风险预警研究 This manuscript was revised by the office on December 10, 2020.上市公司财务风险预警研究Research on Listed Company Financial Risk Early-warning摘要随着我国大力发展资本市场，市场经济体制改革逐步深化完善，上市公司在临竞争环境越来越激烈的情况下，一些公司不可避免地陷入财务危机，甚至走破产。
上市公司一旦发生危机，就会危及经济生活中的多个方面，产生极大的影响。
目前，我国的上市公司被特别处理的主要原因之一就是陷入财务危机。
因为，如果能在公司财务状况刚刚出现危机之时就发现并采取有效的措施，就可以其避免遭受更大的损失，避免经营陷入困境。
本文正是基于这种考虑，在回顾财务风险预警的研究现状和研究方法的基础，将财务风险识别、财务风险评价纳入上市公司财务风险预警的研究框架中，上市公司管理层充分识别公司财务的风险因素并评价公司的财务状况，从而能建立准确且有效的财务风险预警模型。
根据财务风险和财务风险预警的基本理论，给出了上市公司财务风险预警的流程，构建了上市公司财务风险的模糊群体层次评价模型，建立了上市公司财务风险预警模型。
本文的结构作如下安排：第1章为绪论，介绍了研究背景和意义，国内外相关研究综述，本文的研究方法和结构框架。
第2章为财务风险预警的基本理论。
介绍了财务风险的基本理论，财务风险预警的界定、功能和流程。
第3章为上市公司财务风险识别和评价研究。
首先介绍了财务风险识别的基本方法，然后根据上市公司财务风险的模糊性和决策者的群体性，构建了模糊群体层次评价模型。
第4章为上市公司财务风险预警理论研究。
介绍了财务风险预警的目标、功能和分析方法、指标体系的构建原则，并据其构建了财务风险预警的指标体系。
第5章为上市公司财务风险预警模型研究。
以A股上市公司的财务危机公司作为研究对象，选择样本，通过因子分析法筛选出主成分因子，用Logistic回归建立了预警告模型，最后通过检验得到很好的预测效果，具有一定的实用价值。
关键词：上市公司；财务风险；预警；Logistic回归AbstractIn China,the capital market is greatly developed,the market economic system is gradually perfect,under this situation,competition between listed companies is increasingly fierce,and some companies will inevitably fall into financial crisis,or even go listed companies fall into crisis,they will threaten many aspects of economic life,and create the tremendous present,many listed companies in china meet the problem of Special Treatment,one of the main reasons is that they are fallen into financial we can make timely and effective measures before the companies appear financial crisis,it is possible to avoid greater losses.Based on this consideration and financial risk early-warning’s study situation andmethods,this article puts financial risk identifying and financial risk evaluation into the study frame of listed companies financial risk early-warning,so that listed companies managers can fully identify company risk factors and evaluate company financialsituation to construct effective financial risk early-warning model. According to financial risk and financial risk early-warningtheory,this article proposes the process of listed company financial risk early-warning,constructs listed company financial risk’s fuzzy group analytic hierarchy evaluation model and listed companyfinancial risk early-warning model.This article structure makes the arrangement as following:First chapter is the introduction,mainly introduces the background and significance of the study,the domestic and foreign related study summary,this article’s study methods and structural chapter is the financial risk early-warning’s basic introduces the financial risk theory,the financial risk early-warning definition, function andchapter is listed com pany financial risk’s identifying andevaluation study,firstly introduces the financial risk identifying basic method,then based on listed company financial risk's fuzziness and decision-maker's group, constructs the fuzzy group analytic hierarchy process evaluation chapter is listed company financialrisk early-warning theory study,introduces the financial risk early-warning's goal,function and analysis methods and indicator system's construction principle and constructs the financial risk early-warning'sindicator system according to chapter is the listed company financial risk early-warning model study,takes financial crisis company of A-share listed company as the study object,selects samples,chooses the principal components factors through the factor analysis method,establishes the early warning model by Logistic Regression,and gets very good forecast effect through examination,the model has some certain practicality value.Key Words:Listed company;Financial risk;Early-warning;Logistic regression目录摘要........................................................... Abstract. (I)第1章绪论........................................................ 选题背景及意义..............................................国内外研究综述..............................................论文研究方法及结构框架......................................1.3.1研究方法...............................................1.3.2结构框架...............................................1.3.3技术路线...............................................本文的创新点................................................本章小结....................................................第2章财务风险预警的基本理论...................................... 财务风险的基本理论..........................................2.1.1风险的界定.............................................2.1.2风险的特点.............................................2.1.3财务风险的定义.........................................2.1.4上市公司财务风险的形成原因..........................财务风险预警的基本理论 (1)2.2.1财务风险预警的界定 (1)2.2.2财务风险预警的功能 (1)2.2.3财务风险预警的目标 (1)2.2.4财务风险预警流程 (1)本章小结 (1)第3章上市公司财务风险识别与评价研究 (1)上市公司财务风险识别 (1)3.1.1上市公司财务风险识别的内容 (1)3.1.2财务风险识别的基本方法 (1)上市公司财务风险的评价研究 (1)3.2.1选取评价指标的基本原则 (1)3.2.2财务风险评价模型的建立 (1)3.2.3评价模型的应用 (1)本章小结 (2)第4章上市公司财务风险预警理论研究 (2ii)财务风险预警的目标和功能 (2)财务风险预警的分析方法 (2)财务风险预警指标体系的构建原则 (2)预警指标体系的构建 (2)本章小结 (2)第5章上市公司财务风险预警模型研究 (3)财务风险预警模型样本的选取 (3)5.1.1研究对象的界定 (3)5.1.2样本的选取 (3)财务风险预警模型的建立 (3)5.2.1因子分析 (3)5.2.2 Logistic回归预警模型 (3)财务风险预警模型的检验 (4)5.3.1训练样本的检验结果 (4)5.3.2检验样本的检验结果 (4)5.3.3预警模型的评价 (4)本章小结 (4)第6章结论与展望 (4)论文的主要工作 (4)论文的研究不足之处与展望 (4)本章小结 (4)参考文献 (4)致谢 (4)附录：硕士学习期间发表论文和参与科研情况 (4)第1章绪论选题背景及意义在金融危机深度影响危及经济全球化逐步推进的大市场环境下，企业之间竞争日趋激烈，由于财务出现危机而导致企业陷入困境甚至宣告破产的案例比比皆是。