2. A billiard shot made with no attempt to score or so as to leave the balls in an unfavorable position for the opponent
The problem is…a state of safety does not exist 100% of the Time
Asia-Pacific: Bad News, Good News High Growth Markets attracting rapid foreign
investments (China, India, Middle East)
Regional Issues driven by: •Fuel Costs •Airline Restructuring •Inadequate Regulatory Systems
6th Generation? The Summits of CRM
5th Generation- Error Management Ubiquity of Human Error Manage Errors by Avoidance/Trapping/Mitigation 4th Generation-Integrated CRM CRM embedded in procedures/checklists Specialized topics eg. Automation Performance based CRM
Overt Threats
Environment Factors Organizational Factors Individual, Team, Crew Factors Equipage Factors
© Bombala, M Capt (2004) IATA
Threat
Crew Error
Crew Error: Mismanagement of Threats
Safety: 1.8 Billion flew in 2004; 428 Fatalities (similar to 1945 figures where 9 million people traveled by air
Bisignani, G (2005) State of the Air Transport Industry. IATA.
Air Transport is a USD 400 Billion Industry IATA combined Fuel Bill for 2005 is USD83 Billion, equal to the GNP of New Zealand Winners and Losers: North America Africa Latin America Europe Asia Middle East USD 9B USD 150M USD 1.4B USD 2.6B USD 100M
Threat and Error Management: the LCC and IATA Experience
Joey Anca IATA
Overview
Regional and International Aviation- the Good News and Bad News The Future in Aviation Redefining SAFETY Experience with Low Cost Carriers Threat and Error Management (TEM) Tools
3rd Generation-Advanced CRM CRM Integration with technical training/performance Instructor CRM Training Included Dispatchers, Flight Attendants, Engineers
The IATA TEM Program
Positions TEM as a context of CRM CRM Skill Training as the set of countermeasures to manage threats and errors Includes a Train-the-Trainer component to critique the delivery of CRM Programs suited to local conditions
2nd Generation- Crew Resource Management Error Chain & Accident Causality Teambuilding Games Situational Awareness and Stress Management Concepts Cluster Knowledge (Decision Making, Briefing, etc) 1st Generation- Cockpit Resource Management Business Management orientation Interpersonal Relationships/ Leadership Styles Psychobabble language distant from Pilots The “Unassertive” Co-pilot
Asia Pacific Airlines reported US$ 5B profits (2004) India to require 10 000 trained staff each year over next 5 years Demand for pilots to exceed factor of three in next 5 years; Salary bill for pilots up by 30-40% India placed orders of 190 aircraft in last Paris Air Show; number expected to escalate to 490-500 aircraft by 2010
SAFETY
Safety (Middle English, saufte)
Dynamic protections from mishaps Interventions for system integrity and compliance
SAFETY
SAFETY

Creative “buffering” for latent conditions
Threat
Latent Threats Threats: Elements and Conditions that are outside the Crew’s Control
National, Organizational, Professional Culture Standards and Policies Regulations
CRM in the Countermeasure Context TEM as a Framwork
Take Away and the Culture of Safety
World Aviation: Bad News & Good News
Global Turmoil driven by: •Fuel Costs •Legacy vs Low Cost Carriers •Imbalanced Taxation by Governments
Applying the Riddle to Generations of CRM
The next generation is not about a new form of CRM It is about using TEM as a Framework and CRM as a training countermeasure tool—Maru does not exist, but Mary does It is about going back to the foundation of flying operations— the management of operational threats and errors
Harbison, Peter (2005). Indian Subcontinent & Middle East Aviation & Tourism Summit
Corpus of Experience in this Report
Future Transformation: the Jetsons
…instead of a harm-free STATE,
SAFETY
Safety is a Measure of Organisational Resistance to RISK.
Threat and Error Management Tools
Restating (CRM) as the Countermeasures to threats, errors and undesired equipage states Reinforcing Threat and Error Management (TEM) as a framework
Redefining Safety
Redefining Safety for an Organisation to Reflect Reality
Safety (Middle English, saufte)
1. The state of being safe from undergoing or causing hurt, injury or loss
• • • • • • Affordability of Micro Jets to a larger segment of Entrepreneurs Increased Capability of distal and agile Air Traffic Control ased vulnerability of Situational Awareness Devolution of Safety Management Systems to micro users Need for Global Equipage harmonization to counteract present differentiation The Future is Scary