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第七讲 项目风险管理


The Risk Register

A risk register is a document that contains results of various risk management process, often displayed in a table or spreadsheet format. It is a tool for documenting potential risk events and related information。

Risk management planning is the process of deciding how to approach and plan for risk management activities for a project。

A risk management plan documents the procedures for managing risk throughout the project
风险优先 级和整合
风险 分析
可能性 与影响
组织和培训
风险应对
论证后的风 险应对计划 最佳实 施方法 风险 应对工具 最佳 选择
制定风险 应对战略
风险应对手段 的选择和分析
实施风 险应对计划
风险监控 和报告
修订最高 风险的报告
状态 报告
其他步 骤的反馈
风险监控
Risk management planning
风险管理计划 风险评估
项目风险管理过程

1. 2.

What risk is
A general definition (1980S1990S)
A basic dictionary definition says that risk is “the possibility of loss or injury”
Project documents Corporate risk management policies Risk categories Lessons-learned reports from past project Templates for creating a risk management plan The risk tolerances of various stakeholders

1. Tools and techniques 2. The risk register
项目风险管理计划 项目计划信息: 工作分解结构:项目的产品描述、项目的工期和成本估计 、资源规划、采购计划、假设前提和限制条件;
风险类别 历史资料:项目文档、公开发表的资料、项目团队 成员的知识和经验 访谈法 SWOT 检查表法 假设前提分析 图示技术
文件审核 头脑风暴 德尔菲法
Identified risks triggers
Suggestions for identifying risks



Brainstorming: is a techniques for by which a group attempts to generate ideas or find a solution for a specific problem by amassing ideas spontaneously and without judgment Delphi technique is to derive a consensus among a panel of experts who make predictions about future developments Interviewing: is a fact-finding technique for collecting information in face-to-face, phone, email, or instant-messaging discussions
Cost exceed potential benefit
goals
Risk management is an investment -there are cost associated with It.
principle
The major process involved in risk management
Potential payoff
决策过程的三种规范
确定状态
风险
不确定性
What’s the difference betwe the crisis management and the risk management
Project management maturity by industry group and knowledge area



风险的种类:项目中涉及的 主要风险的种类有哪些?是 否编制出与WBS和OBS相应项 目风险结构分解图? 风险的概率和影响:风险项 目发生的概率和对项目目标 产生的影响如何评价?什么 样的打分和解释的方法可用 来定性和定量地分析项目风 险? 风险登记:采用怎样的报告 形式和流程用来登记风险管 理活动。
风险管理计划编制 就是决定采用何种 方法进行风险管理 活动并制定相应计 划管理过程。
风险管理计划是 管理整个项目生 命期中的风险程 序性文件
Topic addressed in a risk management plan
1.
2.
3.
Methodology: how will risk management be performed on this project? What tools and data resources are available and applicable? Roles and responsibilities: who are the individuals responsible for implementing specific tasks and providing deliverables related to risk management? Budget and schedule: what are the estimated cost and schedules for performing risk related activities?



方法论:项目中的风险管 理怎样被执行?可以得到 的并切实可行的工具和数 据资源是什么? 角色和责任:谁是执行特 定任务并对风险管理提供 可交付性成果的个人或群 体? 预算和进度:执行与与风 险相关的进度和估计的成 本是多少?
Topic addressed in a risk management plan
f (threat insurance chance)
Project risk management

Project risk management is the art and science of identifying, analyzing, and responding to risk throughout the life of a project and in the best interest of meeting the project objectives
1.
2.
3.
Risk categories: what are the main categories of risks that should be addressed on this project? Is there a risk breakdown structure for the project? Risk probability and impact: how will the probabilities and impacts of risk items be assessed? What scoring and interpretation methods will be used for the qualitative and quantitative analysis of risks Risk documenting: what reporting formats and process will be used for risk management activities.
KEY : 1= Lowest Maturity rating
Engineering/c onstruction
5=Highest Maturity Rating
Hi-Tech manufacturin g
telecommunic Information ations systems
Scope Time Cost
Project Risk Management
Art Or Science?Fra bibliotek学习内容


学习 提示
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
7.
风险与风险管理 的含义 项目风险管理过 程 风险管理计划 风险识别 定性的风险分析 定量的风险分析 风险反应计划 风险的监督与控 制 软件的应用

学习重点 学习难点
项目风险管理 是在项目生命期内,为了最大限度地 满足项目目标,识别、分析风险并 做出相应反应的艺术和科学
风险管理是对项目管理过程中如何处理 风险事件的决策和控制过程
Risk preference
Utility
Risk-averse Risk neutral the amount of satisfaction or pleasure received from a potential payoff Risk seeking
Risk Identi ficati on
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