1、The Americas Argentina's debt Let's not make a deal Argentina may spurn a chance to settle with its creditors 美洲阿根廷债务别签协议啦阿根廷或将还债机会弃如敝履WHEN Argentina defaulted on its debt for the second time in 13 years last July, the government blamed a pesky clause in its contracts with bondholders. 去年七月，阿根廷发生了十三年来的第二次债务违约，而政府却将这次违约归咎于与债权人签订的合同中的某项麻烦条款。
The so-called Rights Upon Future Offers (RUFO) clause was set to expire on December 31st,in theory opening the way to a settlement with bondholders who had refused Argentina's earlier offers of partial payment. 由于之前债权人拒绝阿根廷部分偿还，这项本应于12月31日到期的未来发行权利（RUFO）条款理论上可以解决与债权人之间的债务问题。
A deal would make it easier to borrow dollars, which the country badly needs to pay for imports. 这项协议可以为阿根廷借入美元提供更多便利，有了美元，阿根廷就可以解决进口商品所使用货币的燃眉之急。
But the president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, may spurn the opportunity. 不过，克里斯蒂娜?费尔南德斯?基什内尔总统却有可能将这一机会弃如敝履。
After its previous default (in 2001) Argentina offered RUFO as a way to entice bond holders to swap the old debt for new bonds worth much less than the original ones. 上次（2001年）债务违约后，阿根廷通过RUFO 怂恿债券持有人进行债务掉期，也就是说用原先价格较低的旧债券交换价格较高的新债券。
The clause says that any future deal offered to some bondholders would be extended to all of them. 这一条款规定，合同签署后，政府和部分债券持有人达成的协议将适用于全体债券持有人。
In 2012 a court in New York ruled that Argentina would have to pay in full the small minority of bondholders who refused the debt swap. 2012年，纽约一家法院判定阿根廷政府应向拒绝债务掉期的少数债券持有人一次付清所有债务。
These are mostly American hedge funds, which bought the bonds at a fraction of their face value. 后者主要是美国对冲基金，它们当初就是以远远低于面值的价格买入了阿根廷债券。
Argentina argued that complying with the court order would trigger billions in payments to all holders of bonds issued under New York law, and so chose to default. 阿根廷称，根据纽约法律，按法庭裁决行事将导致对债券持有人支付高达数十亿的费用，于是便选择了违约。
Since the court's ruling, its foreign-exchange reserves have dwindled to 30 billion, less than needed to pay for six months' imports. 法院作出判决后，阿根廷外汇储备已缩减至300亿美元，甚至不足以支付六个月的商品进口。
Low commodity prices mean that few dollars are flowing in. 较低物价意味着美元流入会更少。
The government has responded by further restricting imports, which has led to shortages of supplies to factories and of some consumer goods. 由于限制进口导致工厂供货和部分日用品出现了短缺，政府已对进一步限制进口做出了回应。
That is one reason why the economy is expected to shrink by around 1% in 2015. 这便是阿根廷经济增速预计将在2015年下跌1个百分点的原因之一。
Debt payments during the year will siphon off some 40% of international reserves. 全年的债务将造成外汇储备流失40%。
In December Argentina tried to reduce that drain by offering holders of bonds due for repayment new securities that mature in 2024. 十二月时，阿根廷曾试图给债券持有人提供2024年到期的新债券，以避免本国外汇储备消耗过快。
The gambit failed miserably:just 4% of creditors volunteered to exchange their 2015 bonds. 这项策略后以惨败告终:只有4%的债权人自愿用2015年债券进行兑换。
Things are so desperate that the government will soon make an attractive offer to holdout bondholders, some observers believe. 一些观察家认为，当前情况万分危急，政府不久就会制定出富有吸引力的政策来维系人心。
The expiration of the RUFO clause makes the cost bearable; the government would not have to make the same offer to the other bondholders. 这次RUFO条款期满后，违约成本尚可担负；但政府今后不会再和其他债券持有人签署同样的协议了。
But that is a minority view. 不过，这只是小部分人的看法。
The real obstacles to paying off the holdouts have always been political rather than contractual, many think. 许多人认为，一直以来，政府无力清偿债务的真正原因都不是合同问题，而是各种政治方面的因素。
Ms Fernandez and her advisers demonised them as vultures and blamed them for many of Argentina's woes. 在费尔南德斯总统及其幕僚那里，债券持有人遭到了妖魔化—这群秃鹫俨然成了阿根廷诸多灾难的罪魁祸首。
To pay them now would be awkward, and the economic gains might be modest. 现在就给他们还债听起来甚是荒唐，经济也可能只是适度增长。
Luis Secco of Perspectivas, a consulting firm, argues that turmoil in Venezuela, Russia and other emerging markets will make investors hesitant to lend to Argentina. 咨询公司Perspectivas 的Luis Secco 认为，委内瑞拉、俄罗斯以及其他新兴市场的混乱局面将使投资者对于收购阿根廷债券犹豫不决。
Even if the government reaches an agreement with creditors, it won't rain dollars, he says. 即使政府同债权人达成了协议，天上也不会掉美元，他这样说。
Besides, ask sceptics, why should Ms Fernandez strike a bargain that would bring political benefits mainly to her successor? 此外，怀疑人士还提出了一个问题：为什么费尔南德斯总统会签署一份政治利益主要荫泽后任的协议呢？She will stand down as president after elections next October;none of the prospective candidates so far has her backing. 过了明年十月，她就要从总统任上退休了；这些候选人里并无她所支持的对象。
The easiest course of action would be to hand off the debt fiasco to the next president—and let the economy pay the price. 最简单的做法就绕过债务泥潭，让下一任总统收拾烂摊子—代价就让经济来付吧。
译者：王卓2、Britain The elderly and the state Golden oldies The government makes rich pensioners richer still 英国政府与老人老人的黄金时代政府让原本富有的退休老人越来越富有BRITAIN'S pensioners are a cosseted lot. 英国的退休老人可谓是集万千宠爱于一身。