2019MCM/ICMSummary Sheet (Your team's summary should be included as the first page of your electronic submission.)Type a summary of your results on this page. Do not includethe name of your school, advisor , or team members on this page.Ecosystems provide many natural processes to maintain a healthy and sustainable environment after human life. However, over the past decades, rapid industrial development and other anthropogenic activities have been limiting or removing ecosystem services. It is necessary to access the impact of human activities on biodiversity and environmental degradation.The main purpose of this work is to understand the true economic costs of land use projects when ecosystem services are considered. To this end, we propose an ecological service assessment model to perform a cost benefit analysis of land use development projects of varying sites, from small-scale community projects to large national projects. We mainly focus on the treatment cost of environmental pollution in land use from three aspects: air pollution, solid waste and water pollution. We collect pollution data nationwide from 2010 to 2015 to estimate economic costs. We visually analyze the change in economic costs over time via some charts. We also analyze how the economic cost changes with time by using linear regression method. We divide the data into small community projects data (living pollution data) and large natural data (industrial pollution data). Our results indicate that the economic costs of restoring economical services for different scales of land use are different. For small-scale land, according to our analysis, the treatment cost of living pollution is about 30 million every year in China. With the rapid development of technology, the cost is lower than past years. For large-scale land, according to our analysis, the treatment cost of industrial pollution is about 8 million, which is lower than cost of living pollution. Meanwhile the cost is trending down due to technology development. The theory developed here provides a sound foundation for effective decision making policies on land use projects.Key words: economic cost , ecosystem service, ecological service assesment model, pollution.Team Control Number For office use onlyFor office use only T1 ________________F1 ________________ T2 ________________F2 ________________ T3 ________________Problem Chosen F3 ________________ T4 ________________F4 ________________EContent1. Introduction (3)2. Variable Description (3)2.1 Definitions (3)3. Model Definitions and Results (4)3.1 2010-2015 Air Pollution Virtual Governance Cost (4)3.2 2010-2015 Solid Waste Virtual Governance Cost (8)3.3 2010-2015 Water Pollution Virtual Governance Cost (11)3.4 Total Governance Data Analysis (14)3.5 Model Analysis Over Time (15)4. Conclusions (16)4.1 Strengths (17)4.2 Weakness (17)4.3 Model Improvement (17)5. References (18)1.IntroductionToday, with the rapid development of social industrialization and modernization, one thing we must admit is that in the process of industrialization in different regions, countries and even the whole world, we are trying to maximize the economic benefits of limited development space, but at the same time, the impact of decision-making on the biosphere is also ignored.It is well known that the biosphere provides many natural processes to maintain healthy and sustainable human living environments, which are called ecosystem services. It not only provides food, medicine and raw materials for industrial and agricultural production, but also maintains the life support system that human beings rely on for survival and development. At present, the internationally recognized ecosystem service function classification system is a classification method proposed by MA working group. MA's ecosystem service classification system divides the main service function types into four function groups: product, rule, culture and support. Thus, the ecosystem service function is the foundation of human civilization and sustainable development.But as we use and update our environment, we may limit or eliminate ecosystem services. Although these activities seem insignificant, they do affect the ecosystem to some extent.Therefore, we introduce the virtual cost management method, which aims to evaluate the cost of environmental degradation by calculating the cost of pollution control. This allows for a comprehensive assessment of projects under construction, thus ensuring the resilience and sustainability of ecosystem services while utilizing land resources.To ensure the integrity and the sustainable development of ecological system is the premise and foundation of development, If we simply pursue the speed of development and neglect the pressure that construction activities bring to the ecosystem, will inevitably produce the bad consequences, we must protect our earth, because it is not only our planet, but also the planet of our descendants.2.Variable Description2.1 DefinitionsTo measure the cost of environmental degradation, we introduced the following variables:Virtual governance costs: The environmental degradation value calculated by the pollution loss method is called the environmental degradation cost, which refers to the various damages caused by the pollutants discharged in the production and consumption process to the environmental function, human health and crop yield under the current governance level.Environmental loss method: In the SEEA framework, pollution loss method refers to the environmental value assessment method based on damage. This method uses certain technical means and pollution loss investigation to calculate all kinds of damages caused by environmental pollution.Biodiversity: Refers to the variety of life in an ecosystem; all of the living organisms within a given area.Biosphere: The part of the Earth that is occupied by living organisms and generally includes the interaction between these organisms and their physical environment.Ecosystem: A subset of the biosphere that primarily focuses on the interaction between living things and their physical environment.Ecosystem Services: The many benefits and assets that humans receive freely from our natural environment and a fully functioning ecosystem.Environmental Degradation: The deterioration or compromise of the natural environment through consumption of assets either by natural processes or human activities.Mitigate: To make less severe, painful, or impactful.Valuation: Refers to the estimating or determining the current worth of something.3.Model Definitions and Results3.1 2010-2015 Air Pollution Virtual Governance CostThe natural gas use proportion c1,c2 and c3 are collectively recorded as c, the gas use amount d1,d2 and d3are collectively recorded as d, and the natural gas operation cost f1,f2 and f3 are collectively recorded as f.In the modeling process, it is assumed that the garbage disposal cost, gas operation cost and central heating operation cost will not change in the next few years.Urbanization is often accompanied by land development and utilization. Urban construction is inseparable from industrial construction and improvement of human living environment. In this process, the continuous development and utilization of land, or the construction of large factories, or the increase of communities and parks, has a certain impact on the local ecology. Factory waste emissions and gas consumption to a certain extent polluted the air, causing irreversible damage to the ecological environment.The impact of land development and utilization on the atmosphere is manifold. In large national projects such as industrial projects, we focus on the costs of sulphur dioxide emissions and dust emissions. In small-scale community projects such as community life, we mainly study the governance cost from the perspective of gas use, and establish an ecological service evaluation model related to air pollution.When considering the function of ecological services, we first study the economic cost of land development and utilization from the perspective of large-scale land development and utilization. Large-scale land development generally includes the establishment and relocation of large companies, the laying of pipelines nationwide, and the establishment of large state-owned enterprises. The construction of large chemical plants in land development produces polluting gases during the development process or after the plant is put into use. Among them, sulfur dioxide and dust emissions accounted for a large proportion. Let's use these two types of pollution as an example to calculate the economic cost.Collecting China's SO2 and dust emissions from 2010 to 2015:The unit cost of SO2 and dustIt should be noted that in the process of treatment, the exhaust gas can not be completely treated. The virtual removal rate of SO2 was a2=90%, and the virtual removal rate of dust was b2=97%. The cost of waste gas treatment should be calculated by virtual management method. It is that the total amount of emissions× virtual removal rate× unit governance cost.SO2 governance cost=a×a2×a1Dust governance cost=b×b2×b1The calculations above can be used to estimate the cost of governance. Governance cost=SO2 governance cost+ dust governance cost.Secondly, when considering the function of ecological services, the cost of land development and utilization is studied from the perspective of small-scale land development and utilization. The development and utilization of small-scale land generally includes the construction of roads, sewers, houses and Bridges. Let's take the development of land for residential areas as an example. When people live in communities, using natural gas for heating and living also pollutes the air. We mainly consider the impact of artificial gas, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas.Collecting data on gas use in urban areas of China from 2010 to 2015:Gas operating costs, urban population, urban gasification rate:The cost of domestic gas treatment is related to urban population, urban gas rate, gas consumption, various proportions of gas consumption, heating area and operating cost. We use hypothetical assumptions to define the cost of gas pollution control.Gas pollution control cost=∑（p −(1−q)×c ×d ×f ）3n=1+（s 1-s 2）×eWhere n=1 is artificial gas, n=2 is natural gas, and n=3 is liquefied petroleum gas. The following estimates of governance costs can be obtained by calculation:3.2 2010-2015 Solid Waste Virtual Governance CostIn the calculation process, we assume that the unit governance cost is the same, including the cost of general solid waste management, the cost of hazardous waste management, the cost of household garbage removal, the cost of sanitary landfill, and the cost of harmless incineration.In the process of land development and utilization, both large-scale land use and small-scale land use will inevitably produce solid waste.In the process of construction and normal use, large factories mainly produce general solid waste and hazardous waste. There are two ways to treat solid waste: storage and disposal. When calculating the cost of industrial solid waste treatment, we can start with the cost of waste storage and management and the cost of waste disposal.Collecting data on China's industrial solid waste treatment from 2010 to 2015:HS means hazardous waste storage HD means hazardous waste disposal The unit cost of industrial solid waste:According to the above data, the virtual governance method is used to calculatethe cost of large-scale land development and utilization when the ecological service function is considered.Virtual governance cost of industrial solid waste=virtual waste management cost of storage waste+ virtual governance cost of disposal wasteVirtual governance cost of storage waste=e1+e2Virtual governance cost of disposal waste=f1+f2e1=a× (b1-a1)e2=c× (d1-c1)f1=b×b1f2=d×d1The virtual governance cost of industrial solid waste can be obtained by calculation:When small-scale land is used for community construction, a certain amount of household garbage will be produced. There are many ways to deal with household garbage. When calculating the treatment cost, we mainly follow three treatment methods: cleaning, sanitary landfill and innocuous incineration.Collecting the amount of domestic garbage generated by Chinese Residents from 2010 to 2015:Domestic garbage unit treatment cost:Virtual governance cost of domestic garbage=x1+y1+z1x1=m×(z-x)y1=n×(y+ z)z1=r× zThe processing cost of domestic garbage can be obtained by calculation:3.3 2010-2015 Water Pollution Virtual Governance CostThe next section considers the cost of water pollution control for land use projects. Based on the above two treatment costs, we still choose the virtual treatment cost method to calculate the annual water pollution treatment cost from 2010 to 2015. By looking up relevant materials, we know that water pollution involves a wide range of fields, including planting, livestock and poultry breeding, industry, urban life and rurallife. However, due to the lack of systematic treatment of sewage in agricultural production, we only consider the cost of virtual pollutants in industry and urban life. Here, we consider the water pollution of small community projects as urban life water pollution, while large national projects are considered as industrial sector water pollution.Pollutants in industrial wastewater include COD, ammonia nitrogen, petroleum and heavy metals. Here we consider the virtual governance cost of four pollutants, then the calculation formula of the virtual governance cost of industrial enterprises is:The virtual governance cost of the industrial sector=∑(pollutant emissions× virtual governance costs per unit of pollutants× virtual removal rate of pollutants), the total virtual governance cost is the sum of the virtual governance costs of various pollutants.Virtual domestic wastewater treatment costs include virtual management cost of COD and ammonia nitrogen virtual governance cost, namely virtual wastewater treatment cost = ∑ (pollutant discharge unit pollutant of virtual management cost virtual pollutants removal rate), namely industrial COD discharge quantity A1, industrial ammonia nitrogen emissions B1, C1 oil discharge, heavy metal emissions D1, cities COD discharge E1 and ammonia nitrogen emissions for F1.The cost of treatment of each pollutant is:It should be noted that the virtual removal rate of pollutants is not 100%, the removal rate of COD is 80%, the removal rate of ammonia nitrogen is 50%, the removal rate of petroleum is 80%, and the removal rate of heavy metals is 50%. The annual emissions of various pollutants are:Table 20 the annual emissions of industrial pollutantIndustrial COD annual emissions/10,000 tons Industrialammonia nitrogen annual emissions /10,000 tonsAnnual oil emissions/ 10,000 tons Annual heavy metal emissions / ton2015 293.50 21.70 1.50 313.70 2014 311.30 23.20 1.60 333.70 2013 319.50 24.60 1.70 366.30 Table 19 The cost of treatment of each pollutantUnit COD governance cost 800/ton Unit ammonia nitrogen treatment cost 100/tonUnit oil treatment cost 500/ton Unit heavy metal treatment cost 1000/ton Unit cost statistics (assuming the cost is the same)Then calculated by the above data:Industrial COD Treatment Cost=A1*80%*800Industrial Ammonia Nitrogen Treatment Cost=B1*50%*100Petroleum treatment cost=C1*80%*500Heavy metal treatment cost=D1*90%*1000Urban COD Treatment Cost=E1*80%*800Urban Ammonia Nitrogen Treatment Cost=F1*50%*100 Virtual cost of industrial water pollution=industrial COD treatment cost+ industrial ammonia nitrogen treatment cost+ petroleum treatment cost+ heavy metal treatment cost, namely:Virtual cost of industrial water pollution=industrial COD treatment cost+ industrial ammonia nitrogen treatment cost+ petroleum treatment cost+ heavy metal treatment cost, namely:Table 23 virtual cost of urban water pollution3.4 Total Governance Data AnalysisBased on the above three data, we put the three aspects of governance cost together to form the time governance cost chart, as shown in the figure below:Chart 1 Industrial integrated virtual governance costThe cost of industrial governance in 2011 was relatively larger than that in 2010. However, after 2011, the cost of industrial governance began to decline. Compared with the cost of industrial pollution governance, the cost of living management was much higher. The trend is to increase, then decrease, then increase and then decrease. Overall, the cost of living treatment fluctuates between about 245 billion yuan. According to the overall data trend, we find that both the cost of industrial governance and the cost of living governance are decreasing year by year. The main reason for the decrease is that the negative impacts of land use decrease year by year, which also reflects the global increasing attention to the impact of human activities on ecosystem services.3.5 Model Analysis Over TimeFrom the above data, we use the linear regression method to calculate the trend of the model with time. For the industrial governance cost, we set the year=x, the governance cost(10000yuan)=y, and then use the regression line equation to calculate The coefficients a~, b~:Calculate a~=8000000 b~=-214213The relationship between x and y can be obtained as follows: y=-214213x+8000000, that is, the governance cost decreases with time, so the following trend graph can be obtained:Chart 3 industrial governance costy = -214213x + 80000006,600,000.006,800,000.007,000,000.007,200,000.007,400,000.007,600,000.007,800,000.008,000,000.008,200,000.008,400,000.0020112012201320142015Industrial governance cost chartFor the cost of urban life governance, it can be seen from the above data that the governance cost changes periodically with time. It is preferable to consider the trend of moving average to predict the future cost of governance. Let be the forecast of governance cost for the next year. The number of periods in which n is moving average;is the pre-treatment cost, and represent the actual values of the first three periods of the previous two periods until the first n periods, then:In summary, the trend graph of life governance costs over time can be obtained:Chart 4 Life governance costAs can be seen from the above figure, the cost of urban living governance changes periodically with time, but it is still decreasing.4.ConclusionsBased on our analysis, we draw the following conclusions:In the process of social construction, we must recognize the construction of economic society, the development of land use cannot be separated from the existence of ecosystem services and environmental sustainable development, but should be developed in parallel. Thus in the process of land development and utilization, we should pay attention to protecting the ecological environment and correctly assess the economic cost of land development projects.In the analysis process, we found that the environmental degradation cost of large-scale industrial project construction is declining year by year, and the environmental degradation cost of small-scale project construction is not particularly large each year, we can reasonably extrapolate the results, the decline in environmental degradation costs for large industrial projects may be due to the increased efficiency of industrial waste treatment, as well as the application of clean energy, and more non-high environmentally hazardous industrial projects to replace high environmentally hazardous industrial projects. The changing trend ofenvironmental degradation costs for small-scale project construction also reminds us of the need to find new and more economical ways to deal with domestic pollution.Based on the virtual governance cost analysis, we put forward the policy of open land use in the future: Improving the ecological environment, Promoting sustainable development, Ensuring the normal operation of ecological environment services. In the future land development and construction projects, we should pay more attention to the assessment of ecological services, so that the development and utilization rate of land tends to be highly rationalized.4.1 Strengths●The model simulates the annual virtual governance cost and makes the resultaccurate and reliable.●In selecting the samples, we selected China's annual data on pollution control.China is a representative country. Therefore, the sample is representative and persuasive.●In the measurement model, linear regression and moving average are used tosimplify the model and ensure the rationality of data. As a result, the entire model is relatively easy to implement.●The model is used to simulate the data obtained, and the change trend isrepresented by graph at last, so that the result is more clear.4.2 Weakness●The linear equation is used to simplify the model and make the result moreintuitive, but due to the unpredictability and diversity of some factors, the regression analysis is limited in some cases.●Due to the limited space, we only considered the three main factors for calculatingthe low cost of environmental degradation,which means that there are still some factors that will affect the correctness of the model we built.●We only analyzed the data for six years, which means our results may still beinaccurate.●In addition, our model simulates the situation that unit governance cost remainsunchanged, without taking into account the fact that scientific progress reduces unit governance cost. In fact, this is unscientific.4.3 Model ImprovementIn the construction of the model, we assume that the unit governance cost remains unchanged, but with the progress of science and technology, the pollution governance technology will certainly increase and the governance cost will also decrease, so if this important factor is not evaluated, it is not scientific to make themodel in real life. In addition, our consideration of the model still requires a lot of data to simulate, and we do not use enough data in the validation process. We also need to further add factors that may affect model evaluation to the models we build to make them more practical.5. References[1]Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People's Republic of China. China Environmental Statistics Annual Report [R] China Environmental Press, 2011[2]Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People's Republic of China. China Environmental Statistics Annual Report[R] China Environmental Press, 2012[3]Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People's Republic of China. China Environmental Statistics Annual Report[R] China Environmental Press, 2013[4]Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People's Republic of China. China Environmental Statistics Annual Report[R] China Environmental Press, 2014[5]Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People's Republic of China. China Environmental Statistics Annual Report[R] China Environmental Press, 2015[6]Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People's Republic of China. 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