本科毕业论文 题目： 太阳能光伏产业上市公司投资价值分析——以天合光能为例 学 院: 管理学院 专 业: 学 号: 学生姓名: 指导教师: 日 期: 二○一一年六月 武汉科技大学本科毕业论文

I 摘 要 太阳能是地球上最为充足与清洁的能源，太阳能发电长久以来都是一个热门的话题。常州天合光能有限公司(以下简称“天合光能”)，作为一家专业从事晶体硅太阳能组件生产的制造商，自1997年成立以来，一直是中国光伏发电行业的领军企业，其产品远销欧美多个国家，近年来销售增长迅猛。2006 年 12 月，天合光能在纽约证券交易所 （NYSE） 上市（代码：TSL），并于 2007 年 6 月增发股票。然而，面对其21.98美元的每股市价，天合光能是否具有进一步的投资价值呢？本文试图利用投资价值分析的方法，来回答这个问题。 本文分为理论与案例分析两大部分，在第一部分中，对当今投资价值分析的方法尤其是现金流量折现模型进行了介绍。 在第二部分的案例分析中，本文首先对天合光能所处的宏观经济环境进行了分析，认为光伏产业在宏观经济持续向好及政策扶持的双重作用下具有大好前景；其次，对天合光能所处的行业进行了分析，发现除了规模和产能快速扩张，上网电价过高，受地域限制及政策影响大以外，光伏发电产业还面临着产业结构的调整；第三，对天合光能公司进行了经营和财务分析，本文认为公司具备良好的经营战略和盈利增长能力，有发展潜力；最后，用FCFF模型对天合公司价值进行评估。并得出估值结论：目前天合光能的价值依旧是被低估状态，仍然具备相当的投资价值。 关键词：价值评估；公司自由现金流；折现现金流估值；天合光能 武汉科技大学本科毕业论文

II Abstract Solar energy is concerned as the cleanest and most abundant energy on the planet, and it has long been a hot topic. “Changzhou Trina Solar Energy Co., Ltd.”(hereinafter referred to as Trina Solar,) is a professional crystalline silicon solar module manufacturer, and it has been acting as a leader in China’s PV Industry since its inception in 1997. Its products are exported to European and American countries, and recent years saw its rapid sales growth. Trina Solar got listed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in December 2006（Symbol: TSL）, and issued stock in June 2007. However, currently quoted as $21.98 per share, does Trina Solar have further investment value? This thesis attempts to answer this question using business valuation methods. This thesis is divided into two parts: theory introduction and case study. In the first part, the currently used analysis methods of business investment value, especially discounted cash flow models, are elaborated. In the case study part, this thesis develops the macroeconomic analysis at first, and concerns that with the prosperous macroeconomic and the support of policies, PV industry will continue to develop; Secondly, PV industry situations are analyzed to find that in addition to the rapid expansion of the size and capacity, high electricity price, easily subject to policies and geographical constraints, PV industry is facing restructuring; Thirdly, this thesis conducts the analysis of business strategy and financial statements, and insists that with excellent business strategy and profit growth ability, Trina Solar has development potentialities; At last, using FCFF method to valuate Trina Solar, this thesis derives that the company is still undervalued and it still has considerable investment value. Key words: Business Valuation; Free Cash Flow of Firm; DCF valuation; Trina

Solar Limited 武汉科技大学本科毕业论文 III 目 录 1 绪论 .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景与公司简介 ................................................................................... 1 1.2 国内外文献综述 ........................................................................................... 1 1.2.1 国外文献综述 .................................................................................... 1 1.2.2 国内文献综述 .................................................................................... 3 1.3 研究目的 ....................................................................................................... 4 1.4 研究意义 ....................................................................................................... 4 2 投资价值分析概述 .................................................................................................. 6 2.1 公司投资价值分析方法及估值理论概述 ................................................... 6 2.2 价值评估的方法体系 ................................................................................... 6 2.3 现金流量折现模型（DCF） ....................................................................... 7 2.3.1 基本含义 ............................................................................................ 7 2.3.2 自由现金流量的概念 ........................................................................ 7 2.3.3 公司自由现金流折现模型 ................................................................ 8 2.3.4 股利折现模型 .................................................................................... 8 2.3.5 股权自由现金流定价模型 ................................................................ 9 2.3.6 现金流量折现模型的特殊形式 ........................................................ 9 3 宏观经济环境分析 ................................................................................................ 11 3.1 国民经济分析 ............................................................................................. 11 3.2 国家政策对太阳能光伏行业发展的影响 ................................................. 12 4 行业分析 ................................................................................................................ 14 4.1 行业界定 ..................................................................................................... 14 4.2 我国太阳能光伏行业特点 ......................................................................... 14 4.2.1 产业规模不断扩大, 产能增速快 .................................................. 14 4.2.2 国内光伏产业与市场倒挂，原料和市场“两头在外” .............. 15 4.2.3 市场需求高度依赖国家产业政策 .................................................. 15 4.2.4 受地域限制明显 .............................................................................. 16