GOM7
► Supply Chain Mgmt1
GOM7
供应链管理 1
A Can of Coke
Smelting
Rolling
Can Making
Label
Filling
Distribution
There are more opportunities in better management of global supply chains than you think
Every step (plants, transports, warehouses, sales….) Is maximizing its own operational efficiency
Is this too much local optimization and not enough global optimization?
Respond quickly to unpredictable demand in order to minimize stockouts, forced markdowns, and obsolete inventory
Maintain high average utilization rate
Deploy excess buffer capacity
Generate high turns and minimize inventory throughout the chain
deploy significant buffer stocks of parts or finished goods
The “Beer Game” example
CONSUMERS
供应链的响应能力
“皮鞭” 效应
沿类似于皮鞭的供应链上移时，定单的可变性呈上升趋势
“啤酒游戏” 示例
客户
SC Responsiveness
Coordinate the supply chain 1. Share More Information
功能产品
创新产品
物理效率高的 供应链
市场响应型的 供应链
匹配 不匹配
不匹配 匹配
SC Responsiveness
Aspects of Demand
Functional (Predictable Demand)
Innovative (Unpredictable Demand)
Product life cycle
Consumers
Manage the Demand
Avoid the “Bullwhip” Effect
供应链的响应能力
怎么办？
客户
协调供应链
重新设计供应链
需求管理
避免 “皮鞭” 效应
SC Responsiveness
The “Bull whip” Effect
Order variability tends to increase as we move up the supply chain like the “bull whip”
10% to 25%
Lead time required for made-to- 6 months to 1 year order products
1 day to 2 weeks
*The contribution margin equals price minus variable cost divided by price and is expressed as a percentage
Low (10 to 20 variants per category) 10%
1% to 2%
High (often millions of variants per category) 40% to 100%
10% to 40%
Average forced end of season 0% markdown as percentage of full price
SC Responsiveness
Coordinate the supply chain
2. Change Controls in the Channel
Vendor Managed Inventory Consignment Stocks “Sell-through”
Supplier Supplier Supplier
More than 2 years
3 months to 1 year
Contribution margin*
5% to 20%
20% to 60%
Product variety
Average margin of error in the forecast at the time production is committed Average stockout rate
Supply Chain
Market Responsive Mismatch
Supply Chain
Mismatch Match
供应链的响应能力
“功能” 产品对 “创新” 产品的 不同 “时钟速率”
“功能” 产品
“创新” 产品
汽油 铅笔 谷物
打印机 数码照相机 时装服饰
使供应链与产品的 “时钟速率”相适应
10% 至 40%
被迫终止季节性降价平均占 全价百分比 按单产品所需的前导时间
0% 6 个月至 1 年
10% 至 25% 1 日至 2 周
*边际收益等于价格减去各项成本，再除以价格，用百分率表示。
SC Responsiveness
Primary purpose
Manufacturing focus Inventory strategy
Consumers
Is not easy •Multiple parties •Lagged & distorted information flows •Variability and unpredictability •Imbalance Specially for supply chains across national boundaries
供应链的反应能力
各需求方面
功能型 (可预测需求)
创新型 (需求不可预测)
产品寿命周期
2年以上
3 个月到1年
边际收益*
5% 至 20%
20% 至 60%
产品多样性
低 (每一类别10 至 20种)
高 (往往每一类别数百万种)
委托产品时预报误差平均幅度 10%
40% 至 100%
平均脱销率
1% 至 2%
Retailing
一罐可乐
澳大利亚矾土矿
冶炼
辊压
制罐
贴标签
填装
改进全球供应链管理的机会之多超乎想象
分销 零售
一个英国家庭的冰箱
A Can of Coke
Smelting
Rolling
Can Making
Label
Filling
Time in the Pipeline
Distribution Retailing
Printers Digital cameras Fashion apparel
Fit the Supply Chain to Product’s “Clockspeed”
Functional Products Innovative Products

Physically Efficient Match
A British Household Refrigerator
一罐可乐
澳大利亚矾土矿 冶炼
流程时间
辊压
制罐 贴标签 填装 分销 零售
一个英国家庭的冰箱
A Can of Coke
Why 319 days to do 3 hours of work?
•Production is batched at every stage •Transport is batched at every stage •Product goes through an average of 14 storage lots and warehouses
Consumers
Manage the Demand
供应链的响应能力
怎么办？
客户
协调供应链
减少供应链
需求管理
使供应链与产品的 “时钟速率”相适应
SC Responsiveness
The root cause of the problems plaguing many supply chains is a mismatch between the type of product and the type of supply chain
供应链的响应能力
协调供应链
2. 改变渠道控制 卖方管理的存货 代销存货 “零售量”
供应商 供应商 供应商
Intra-Operation Initiative
3. Create More Operational Flexibility
•Invest in postponement •Increase modularity •Share platforms / Common components •Reduce changeover costs (and batch sizes) •Reduce weight of capacity utilization as KPI
Lead time focus Approach to choosing suppliers Product-design strategy
Physically Efficient Process