海外项目的风险防控中信国际合作公司总经理田威风险概论风险是以（部分地）管控的风险概论－风险是可以（部分地）管控的No construction project is risk free.Risk can be managed minimized shared transferred or Risk can be managed, minimized, shared, transferred, or accepted. It cannot be ignored.如果忽视了风险，会怎样？１）成本增加２）利润减少或亏损３）信誉受损，或者直至４）公司破产危机（危vs机）？！老子的理论（Risk and uncertainty poses challenges as well as opportunitiesposes challenges as well as opportunities）项目风险质量及安全成本管控进度计划变更管理合约及采购 人力资源管理信息管理外部影响如何管控风险辨认风险（Vision）Q tif ll i k评估量化风险（Quantify all risks）减少影响执行监测项目风险管控对整个公司至关重要文字记录／书面往来（FIDIC第2.5款vs 第3.3款）727＋7 天vs 2＋2天员工普遍知晓内部监控成本风险两个可能导致戏剧性变化的因素物价上涨（调价公式，CPI，PPI）汇率（现实：人民币升值的压力） 选择什么货币？专业咨询的重要性主大项目防范风险 Joint Venture业主大项目上防范风险 William Vickrey TheoryThe Vickrey Auction The Vickrey Auction (Uniform second (Uniform second--price)The uniform second The uniform second--price auction is commonly called the Vickrey Auction,named after William Vickrey,winner of Vickrey Auction, named after William Vickrey, winner ofthe 1996 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, who classified it in the 1960s. It is a sealed sealed--bid English (ascending--price;vs Dutch auction descending auction (ascending price; vs Dutch auction, descendingprice) with an important concept that the highest bidder wins but only pays at the second wins but only pays at the second--highest bid price. Why is the Vickrey Auction significant?Because it is designed is the Vickrey Auction significant? Because it is designedto induce truthful to induce truthful--revelation ．This variation over the normal bidding procedure is supposed to encourage bidders to bid the largest amount they are willing to pay bidders to bid the largest amount they are willing to pay. Most auctions are first Most auctions are first--price auctions with either open price auctions with either open--outcry or sealed bid format. The winner is the highest bidd d di l th i bid bidder, and correspondingly pays their bid.z Like the first Like the first--price auction, each bidder is ignorant of open other bids while the bids are sealed (instead of open--other bids while the bids are sealed (instead of open outcried, outcried, NOTE:it is imperative NOTE:it is imperative to seal the bid to seal the bid). But the ). But the item is awarded only to highest bidder at a price equal second to the second--highest bid (or highest unsuccessful bid)to the second highest bid (or highest unsuccessful bid). zIn a sealed In a sealed--bid auction, bidders generally try to shade their bids slightly under their true valuation of the product thereby creating an opportunity to win the product, thereby creating an opportunity to win theauction and pay less than their valuation (profit auction and pay less than their valuation (profit--oriented). Bidders do this to avoid the problem of i id th t th i f ti “winner ’s curse ”: an idea that the winner of an auctiongenerally overvalues the product and he will be the final loser. Nonetheless, auction sellers do not wish for l t h d th i bid d h d l d players to shade their bids and have developedalternative alternative--style auctions (William Vickrey ’s observation and Theory).z In other words, a winner pays less than the highest bid. If, for example, bidder A bids $10, bidder B bids $15, and bidder C offers $20,bidder C ($20)would win,and bidder C offers $20, bidder C ($20) would win,however he would only pay the price at the second however he would only pay the price at the second--highest bid ($15), namely bidder B.QQ and ABUT What about changing the format just a little andprice, openhaving a second price,open outcry auction?having a second--price open--auction?secondIn such a case, participants could bid in the ascending (say English way) format and the winner wouldultimately pay the price of the second--highest bid. One ultimately pay the price of the secondmight imagine that such an auction would have much the same results as a typical English (ascending, open--the same results as a typical English (ascending, openoutcry) auction, but, in fact, an auction like that would be easy to manipulate. Imagine bidder A bidding $25 for be easy to manipulate Imagine bidder A bidding$25foran item worth $100. Some other bidder could quite easily and safely bid $750, knowing that no one will bid y y$,gmore and that he will safely get it by only paying $25. Itis clearly imperative to seal the bid in a Vickrey Auction instead of open--outcry.d finstead of openg p g p y yz Again expounding Example of William Vickrey Theory: z Assume a Vickrey Auction for 2 Super Bowl Tickets （National Football League, USA）．Your own personal valuation of these tickets is$3000z Your own personal valuation of these tickets is $3,000.z What would happen if you place a bid greater than $3,000 (for example, $3,100) hoping to increase your chances of winning, and knowing that you only need toh f d k h l d pay the second highest bid if you win ?1st scenario:the second highest bid is$2,800;you win z1st scenario: the second highest bid is $2,800; you win the tickets with your bid of $3,100, and pay $2,800.This is the same outcome if you had bid $3,000.2nd scenario:the second highest bid is$3050;you win z2nd scenario: the second highest bid is $3,050; you win the tickets with your bid of $3,100, but you pay $3,050.This price is greater than your valuation and therefore is a bad outcome.a bad outcomez3rd scenario: the second highest bid is $3,200; you losey,ythe tickets with your bid of $3,100. But you would have lost with a bid of $3,000 as well.z Now assume that your bid is less than $3,000 (for example, $2,900) hoping to win the tickets at a lower price.pricez1st scenario: the second highest bid is $2,800; you win the tickets with your bid of $2,900, and pay $2,800. This is the same outcome if you had bid $3,000.hi i h if h d bid$3000z2nd scenario: the second highest bid is $2,950; you lose the tickets with your bid of $2,900. You would havethe tickets with your bid of$2,900.You would have won with a bid of $3,000.z3rd scenario: the second highest bid is $3,200; you lose the tickets with your bid of $2,900. But you would have the tickets with your bid of$2900But you would havelost with a bid of $3,000 as well.z CONCLUSION: Under a Vickrey Auction, all players have the optimal strategy to truthfully reveal their personal valuation of the auctioned product.personal valuation of the auctioned product.Influence Curve 项目的项目的““影响曲线（Influence Curve ）”对创意（Concept ）I成本设计（Engineering ）和进度采购（Procurement ）的影响施工（Construction ）度时间T进度风险进度险讲个实例24 个月的合同工期，11月已过（45%）度进度？Acceleration vs Extra Cost Delay vs Prolong(ation)Delay vs Prolong(ation)实际完工EOT vs Variation Order成本质量风险百年大计，质量第一（vs 安全第一）The Employer gets the work he isThe Employer gets the work he ispaying for !经济制约10%+5%经济制约：10% + 5% 履约/维修保函实验室vs 工业生产（too academic实例）质量管理体系——ISO 9001HSE 风险Health, Safety and Environment 过程管理，动态管理环境管理体系—ISO 14001—OHSAS 18001职业健康安全管理体系OHSAS 18001安全第一，生命至上（实例）人身安全法律安全合法营人身安全，法律安全（合法经营）Accident 0（承担刑事责任ＨＫ）Accident 0 （承担刑事责任，ＨＫ）1 vs 0众多个项目风险的日常管理所有风险因素应该统一综合地加以考虑 项目风险管理构成了合同管理的主轴什么会形成风险？缺乏经验（寻求专业咨询，理念的转变） 无法及时做出反馈并抓住机遇合约管理缺失（Contract Management） 不必要的法律责任不按合同办事demand one’s due索赔不力（demand one s due）。