• So, we need to
make baby！！！！
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The effect of Two-child policy
• Advantage effect ---short term effect
---long term effect
• Disadvantage effect
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Disadvantage effect
不同等级城市对于要生育二胎的数据统计图
10.07%
46.39%
19.07%
24.47%
一线城市
二线城市
三线城市
四线城市
2.The quality of population
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Disadvantage effect
• Fully implementing the one-child policy（1980—1984）
• The family planning policy adjustment（1984—1991） • Variety of childbearing policy（1991—2015） • Two child policy fully liberalised（2015—）
The two child policy
• Four parts
• The development of China's childbearing policy • The influence of two child policy • Different views on two child policy
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• China's first population census was conducted in 1953， the result of the cencus Results showed that the population is much higher than expected, matching with the limited resources and backward in our country, shook the government leaders. • “In addition to the ethnic minority areas, in all the densely populated place, propaganda and promotion of birth control, bear the children in a planned way.” • Because of the Great Leap forward and the Great Famine, the leaders of the government thought: • Many hands make light work. MAKE • More people can do great things. BABY!
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Improve the wages in some sectors
• Pay more attention of next generation • baby-related sector’s development
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Short－term effect
• The quantity of labor market is constant
• Decreasing the number of market labor
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Improve the quality of labor
• Before two-policy,some family think brith in American is a good choice. • It is a big loss for China • Many people working or studying overseas to birth more child • Callback the talented people
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Short－term effect
Short－term effect
Market’s demand and supply
Improve the quality of labor
Improve the wages in some sectors
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China's childbearing policy in 60 years
Various stages of the policy
BIG THREE
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Various stages of the policy
• Pronatalist policy（1949 —1953） • The policy shift and repeated（1954 — 1959） • Family planning is put forward，try out in some counties and cities（1960 —1969） • Limiting population growth "late, sparse, less" policy gradually formed and comprehensive progress（1970— 1980）
• Before two-child policy,the prediction of China’s Ageing
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Improve the size of workforce
• The next two-child policy also will increase the labor twenty years after the new baby entering the labor market, so the size of the structure of the labor market will be slowly changing. Therefore, under the two-child policy, the change of labor market is just a matter of time
Long－term effect
Adjust the sex ratio
Improve the size of workforce
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Adjust the sex ratio
• The fifth national census data show that the country's sex ratio is 116.9: 100 • The data is very likely to continue to rise • Parents affected by traditional ideas, want a boy to continue family roots • Release two-child policy, so that young couples are not going to care about the sex of the child, because there is still opportunity to have a second child
The policy shift and repeated（1954 — 1959）
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Fully implementing the one-child policy（1980—1984 ）
• The "late, sparse, less" policy is very useful, but with the living standard increased, the farmers' willingness to have more child is stronger than before. And the compensatory birth population (from the BIG1)also began to enter the stage of childbearing age, the birth rate ,natural growth rate and the total fertility rate are all rebound. • In this context, began to tighten the one-child policy in the whole country, is the "one-child" policy.
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Market’s demand and supply
• Family will pay more time to take care of child • The labor will decrease in the short-term • Promote some sector’s development
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Improve the size of workforce
• Ageing population is a serious problem in Whole world
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Improve the size of workforce