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投资项目可行性分析-第七章_投资项目风险分析
Risk is the chance that an undesirable event will occur and the consequences of all its possible outcomes
风险是在一定条件下,一定时期内,某一事 件其预期结果与实际结果间的变动程度,变 动程度越大,风险越大;反之,则越小。
Transferring Risk
➢ Passing risk to another party is common; this transfer does not change risk.
➢ Passing risk to another party almost always results in paying a premium(额外费用) for this exemption
Inputs for Risk Identification 风险识别输入
Technical技术
Performance Problems Quality 质量 Probability 可能性 Reliability 可靠性
Technology Problems 技术问题 Change 变更
➢ There are basically two strategies for mitigating risk: 1) reduce the likelihood that the event will occur 2) reduce the impact that the adverse event would have on the project.
Hi 高
More than 70% likely 大于70的可能性
Medium中 30-70% likely 可能性在30-70%之间
Low 低
Less than 30% likely 低于30%的可能性
Risk Event Graph
7-1
风险事件曲线图
项目风险分析
1、风险评估的常用方法:
➢ Responses to risk can be classified as mitigating, transferring, sharing, or retaining.
Mitigating Risk
➢ Reducing risk is usually the first alternative considered.
Design Problems 设计问题 Suitability of Specificaቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱions 规格匹配 Probability of Changes 变更的可能性
Inputs for Risk Identification
风险识别输入
Legal法律
➢ License 许可
➢ Patent Rights 专利权
The Million Dollar Question
Is risk a bad thing?
风险是坏事吗?
不确定性Uncertainty =
Risk 风险or 机会 Opportunity
Basic character of risk
风险的客观性(Objectivity) 风险的不确定性(Uncertainty) 风险的不利性(Disadvantage) 风险的可变性(Changeability) 风险的相对性(Relativity) 风险同利益的对称性(Symmetry)
“风险来源-风险后果-风险程度”分析法: 步骤1:构造风险来源要素表 步骤2:确定对应风险后果值集 步骤3:评价风险影响程度
步骤1:构造风险来源要素表
步骤2:确定对应风险后果值集
步骤3:评价风险程度
Step 3 Risk Response Development
➢ When a risk event is identified and assessed, a decision must be made concerning which response is appropriate for the specific event.
如果发生,其对项目影响性是什么?
Analysis of total Risk Exposure is based on Probability and Risk (Total Risk Exposure)
全部风险分析是基于可能性和风险
Impact Definition Example 影响定义举例
What is an Uncertainty? 什么是不确定性?
It is the sum of unknowns for each project
它是对一个项目未知的集合。
Uncertainty, Opportunity, and Risk 不确定性,机遇和风险
Start Project
项目开始
第七章 投资项目风险分析
Economics and Management School of Wuhan University
本章主要内容
第一节 投资项目风险的一般理论 第二节 投资项目风险分析方法
项目投资决策中收益与风险的权衡
收益
投资 目标
风险
第一节 投资项目风险的一般理论
一、风险及项目风险 风险是预期结果的不确定性。
➢ Contractual Failure 合同违约
➢ Legal Suits 法律诉讼
Step 2: Risk
Assessment
✓ In fact, not all of these risks deserve attention even though all potential risks are identified.
Environmental Issues 环境问题 Taxation 税 Competition 竞争性
Inputs for Risk Identification
风险识别输入
Internal 内部 (non Technical)
Schedule 进度
Cost 成本
Quality 质量
Quantification量化: Evaluating identified risks and risk interactions to assess the range
of possible project outcomes.
评估识别的风险以及评定可能的项目结果范围风险相 互作用。
Risk Identification 风险识别
External外部
Availability of raw materials 原料的可供性
Design Standards 设计标准 Pricing 定价 Natural Hazards 自然意外 Supplier Stability 供应商稳定性
Political and Social Issues 政治和社会问题
Unknown (Uncertainty)
不确定性
Completion
Outcome 结果 (Product)
Favorable (Opportunity)
有利的一面 是机会
Unfavorable
不利的一面 是风险
(Risk)
二、项目风险分类举例
Example of Project Risk Categories
风险评估方法; 评分法及DELPHI法
等风险图法; 层次分析法(AHP)
效用理论方法; 保险单对照表法
模糊数学方法; CIM模型
蒙特卡罗模拟法;决策树法
PERT模型;
多目标决策法
敏感性分析法; 图形评审技术(GERT)
影响图技术(ID)风险评审技术(VERT)
综合应急评审与响应技术(SCERT)
案例——某软件项目 风险评估的具体步骤
✓ Some are trivial(微不足道的) and can be ignored, while others poise serious threats to the welfare of the project.
✓ Project managers have to develop methods for sifting through the list of risk eliminating inconsequential or redundant (多余的)ones and stratifying worthy ones in terms of importance and need for attention.
Based on Project Phases - 按周期阶段
Total Risk 全部风险
Plan 计划 Design设计 Implement实施 Management管理
Example of Risk Categories 风险分类举例
Tailored to Product Development Project
It identifies all possible Major areas of risk in a given Project 在给定项目中,识别所有
可能的风险主要领域
Internal 内部 (non Technical)
Legal法律
External外部 Technical技术
Inputs for Risk Identification 风险识别输入
Probability & Impact 可能性或影响性
Probability: How likely is it that this “event” will really occur???? 真正发生的可能性
Impact: If it does occur, what will be the impact to the project???