全球化与区域经济发展 Company Document number：WUUT-WUUY-WBBGB-BWYTT-1982GT全球化与区域经济发展柏兰芝老师提纲4. 9/25/02IV. 需求拉动的区域增长理论( Demand-based theory)1. Export-base theory (North)2.Tiebout’s response3.Economic base theory 经济基础理论pared to Jane Jacobs’ “supply region”1.Export-base TheoryContext: 战后关心工业化和增长2) 区域发展必须放在资本主义制度框架（利润极大化，可流动的生产要素）以美国大西北出口历史为例。
麦/面粉 1868开始到英国/ 1857到日本/亚洲/澳洲19世纪：一半以上出口伐木业（Douglas fir）：联系加州的gold rush1860-1920, flour and lumber accounted for 40-60% of the value of the region’s manufacturing output不是线性地从subsistence--------------------------- 集中reduced transport rates3) 定义export base: collectively exportable commodity of a region.In the US, many regions stated from 1 or 2 exportable commodities,And, export base often widened after transport costs has been reduced--bring income back to the region--develop diversity--develop residentiary industry--external economy--technological development--capital: invest in existing export industryreinforce existing export base, create uneven regional development4) 增长的机制增长一定要工业化The case of Oregon：农业带动的出口也能带动增长5) So, a region is defined by its development around a common export base.This makes it economically unified and ties the region’s fortunes together.6) What will influence the decline of a region Transportation/Technology/Government2.Tiebout’s response: 19561) export base 对小区域比对大区域有用—decided by the scale of a region.--How to define a region --Not by export base.--Size matters. The larger a region is, the more it has internal trade.. export only accounts for a very small portion of US economy2)short-term . long-runother sources of regional growth (of income and employment):business investment, government spending, residential construction, non-economic migration3)factor endowment: . New Jersey’s coal—有煤不见得就有出口，还要看成本4)stage theory counts—. America as a colony5)export base is better to be applied to satellite cities in the suburban fringe6) a region must divide its energies between residentiary and export activitiesNorth: Reply1)long run2) a region’s significance lies in its being a specialized part of the wholeso, export base is useful to define a region*长江三角洲，珠江三角洲是区域吗有export base 可用来定义吗3)residentiary 的发展仍需外力，即出口。
（是吗）Tiebout 再回应1)强调other endogenous variables2)强调某种程度的closed economyno causal mechanism between regional development and exporting capacity.Not all export economy produces diversity—North is misleading3. economic base theory 经济基础理论-basic sector: export; engine of the local economy. . Boeing-non-basic (local) sector: e. g. grocery, dry-cleaning, local governmentetc.--base multiplier基础乘数: Total / Basic (employment). B 20,000NB 40,000T 60,000Base ratio (B/NB) = 1:2Base multiplier (T/B) = 3参考简言之，新的产业投资进入，会有新的地方需求产生--policy implication改良出口所需的条件，包括运输，生产技术并降低劳动成本（压低工资）这个快乐的故事是这样的：政府投资—增长过程—产业多元化—收入增加—地方储蓄增加—投资增加—劳力移入—形成新的出口产业--critique1)理论上不完整; 任何外来投资，即使是指向内需市场，仍可以带动区域的乘数效果。
2)到底如何区分基础产业和非基础产业服务业就是非基础产业吗3)对增加的就业只看就业量，但每一种就业的质不一样，有些工作附加价值高，有些低。
4)区域外的需求如何形成（动力）5)对供给持无限弹性的看法，可以完全对需求做出反应。
--是这样吗实际上—故事不一定如此美好，增加的收入不一定在本地消费，有时会漏到外地去。
（新竹科学园区的—到台北消费）而关联性也不保证在本地发生，要视新投资的特性而定（台塑六轻，雇用外地工人）。
4. Compared to Jane Jacobs’ “Supply Region”A region’s fate is decided by a distant city market乌拉圭(Uruguay)的例子1911-1950 meat, wool, leather for European marketwelfare state: Switzerland of South America1953—things began to go wrongFrance: protectionismCompetition from Australia and New ZealandImport substitution: cost too much, import parts and materialsexhausted foreign reserves buy things on creditsunable to pay loan interestsbankruptwhy:the capital city, Montevideo lacked the ranges of skills, the networks of producers’ goods and services, the practice at improvising and adapting necessary to make import-replacing apractical economic endeavorinflationunemployment, poverty, social political chaosmilitary dictatorship--peace and order of an economic graveyard1980, the average purchasing power of consumers only half of it had been in 1968, which was half of that in 1950.●So, a region could be rich but still lack development--Fragile, helpless●Need to create a productive city for themselves, generate a complex and many-sided cityregion●No good to be too specialized: controlled by distant market●Decline of a supply region:--depletion--new substitutes for old products--political arrangement (EU)●compared to colonial economies—CubaCanada,Saved Alberta Town, Japanese firm says10 Japanese companies agreed to buy coal from the mining town of Grand Cache,and that contract will give the town, with a population of 4,000, at least two more years of life●最重要的观点：要发展city region(似乎更适合描述长江三角，珠江三角而北京又是什么样的区域)全球化与区域经济发展柏兰芝老师提纲3. 9/22/02III. 新古典经济学的区位理论(Location theory)1.firm location + urban system1)杜能的农业区位论: Thunen，1826，《孤立国同农业和国民经济的关系》--背景：寻求企业型农业时代的合理农业生产方式。