关键词：GDP，回归模型，时间序列理论，统计检验，分析预测
ABSTRACT
The GDP and GNI (gross national Income, gross national Income)is commonly used to measure thecountry or region's economic development level of comprehensive index in economics. This isthe measure thatvarious countries and regions often adopt.GDPreflectsthe total amount of the added value of national economic sectors, it is regarded as a measure of national economic developmentandis one of the most important indicatorsandthe most closelyfoucusedeconomic macroeconomic statistics. For over 30 years’ reform and opening uppolicy, China's GDP average annual growth ratereached9.8%.This phenomenon is known as "China's economic miracle". Combined with GDP growth slowingdown,we begin to worry China's rapid economic development began tofade away, and willnever exist. China,enormousmarketwhich iscontinue to maintain such rapid growthin the future,there aredifferent pointsof viewin the society. This paper referedto the ‘China statistical yearbook’,obtained theGDP and the data of several factors affect the GDPfrom 1995 to 2012.We setthe GDP as the dependent variable, the population, investment in fixed assets, trade along the poor (inverse), national fiscal spending, residents' consumption level as independent variable, using the multivariate regression analysis, analysis of the influence of these variables on China's GDP. Using MATLAB statistic test, the optimum model. Second, because of time series analysis can reveal the development of a phenomenon from the number change rule or describe a particular phenomenon from the perspective of dynamic and other phenomenon and its changing regularity,toachieve the purpose of understanding the objective ing time series model canalsoforecast and control the future behavior of phenomena, modification and redesign system to achieve the goal of utilizing and transforming the objective. So this article is based on time series theory to our analysis, model identification, estimation, and forecasting. In order to analyze the inherent characteristics of the economic growth, and to make analysis and forecasting short-term economic development in our country in the future. Finally, based on the above two results, to our country's economic development and economic strategy formulation, feasiblesuggestions are put forward.
目：全国GDP的统计分析
理学院信息与计算科学专业
学生韩伟铭
指导教师孔祥智 教授
二〇一三年五月
摘
在经济学中，常用GDP和GNI（国民总收入，gross national Income）共同来衡量该国或地区的经济发展综合水平通用的指标。这也是目前各个国家和地区常采用的衡量手段。GDP反映的是国民经济各部门的增加值的总额，它被认为是衡量国民经济发展情况最重要的一个指标，是宏观经济中最受关注的经济统计数字。改革开放三十多年来，中国GDP年均增长速度达到9.8%，这一现象被世人誉为“中国经济奇迹”。结合GDP增速放缓等现状，我们开始忧虑中国经济高速发展期开始谢幕，并会一去不返。然而中国作为其他经济体很难比拟的特大市场，属于“巨国模型”，今后我们能不能继续维持这种高速增长，社影响GDP的几大因素的相关数据，并将GDP作为因变量，将人口数、固定资产投资、贸易顺（逆）差、国家财政支出、居民消费水平为自变量，利用多元回归分析法，分析这些变量对我国GDP的影响程度。利用MATLAB统计检验，确定最佳模型。其次，因为时间序列分析可以从数量上揭示某一现象的发展变化规律或从动态的角度刻画某一现象与其他现象之间的内在关系及其变化规律性，达到认识客观世界之目的，而且运用时间序列模型还能够控制和预测现象的未来行为，并且修正和重新设计系统从而达到利用和改造客观的目对数据进行绘图分析、模型识别、模型估计，及预测。以此来分析中国经济增长的内在特征，并对我国未来短期经济发展做出分析和预测。最后，基于以上两点研究结果，对我国的经济发展和经济策略的制定提出可行性建议。