國際戰略暨外交決策分析成功大學政治經濟研究所碩士班陳欣之壹、課程目標:本課程主要討論國家在國際體系中如何應對安全困境，擴大本國權力與追求國際地位的戰略構成暨外交決策。

有關戰略暨外交決策，首先從國際體系之層次，討論位處國際無政府狀態中之國家，所面臨之安全困境暨國家追求安全之必要性。

其次就國家分析層次，討論外交策略形成。

最後就個人層次，研究官僚體系暨政府菁英，如何處理對外事務，探索外交決策的內容、特徵與模式。

本課程期望能夠透過討論、老師講授與同學之報告過程，培養修課同學對於大戰略暨外交決策相關研究成果之認識與運用，並作為深入研析國家對外決策之基礎。

貳、教學方式：透過課堂提問及討論，瞭解國家外交暨戰略之構成與對外行為。

參、課程要求：每位同學於課前閱讀指定參考文獻，報告閱讀心得並且參與課間討論。

每位同學需進行一次論文口頭報告及繳交書面期末報告。

書面報告格式以《問題與研究》之格式為準，需有章節目錄、本文與參考書目。

書面報告不得少於15頁。

口頭暨書面期末報告之前，需繳交二頁論文提綱，並在課間就此進行口頭報告。

論文提綱需列舉研究源起、所欲探索問題、研究方法、問題假設、論證之基礎、可能的理論解釋以及最後同學在論文中所欲補充的看法。

論文撰寫請參考：Thies, Cameron G. 2002. “A Pragmatic Guide to Qualitative Historical Analysis in the Study of International Relations,” International Studies Perspectives, Vol. 3, No. 4, pp. 351-372.Evera, Stephen Van. 1997. Guide to methods for students of political science, Ithaca :Cornell University Press.肆、評分方式：選課同學需於參考書目中選擇二篇期刊文章，於課堂上進行十分鐘之摘要報告，並主持30分鐘之討論。

期中考 (30%), 課間出席(10%)，課間討論(20%)、書面報告(20%)，口頭報告(20%) 伍、上課進度：第一週 (09/16)課程介紹，論文撰寫注意事項。

第二週 (09/23)分析層次 levels of analysis."Introduction." In G. John Ikenberry, ed. American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays, 1st edition,Boston: Scott, 1989.Singer, David. “The level-of Analysis Problem in International Relations,” in G. John Ikenberry, ed. American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays, 1st edition,Boston: Scott, 1989.Waltz, Kenneth. 1959. Man, the State, and War: A Theoretical Analysis. New York: Columbia University Press. Chapter 1.第三週 (09/30)國際格局對國家行為的解釋 International system and state behaviorHolsti, Ole R. “Models of International Relations and Foreign Policy,” in G. John Ikenberry, ed. American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays. 5th ed. NY: Longman, 2005.Waltz, Kenneth. “Anarchic Orders and Balances of Power,” in G. John Ikenberry, ed. American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays. 5th ed. NY: Longman, 2005. Ikenberry, G. J ohn. 1989. ”Rethinking the Origins of American Hegemony, Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 104, No. 3, pp. 375-400.Ikenberry, G. John, Michael Mastanduno and William C. Wohlforth. 2009. “Introduction: Unipolarity, State Behavior, and Systemic Consequences,” World Politics, V ol. 61, No. 1, pp. 1-27.第四週 (10/07)國家屬性對國家行為的解釋 state characters and state behaviorGeorge, Alexander. “Domestic Constraints on Regime Change,” in G. John Ikenberry, ed. American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays. 5th ed. NY: Longman, 2005. Huntington, Samuel P. “American Ideals versus American Institutions,” in in G. John Ikenberry, ed. American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays. 5th ed. NY: Longman, 2005.Mastanduno, Michael. “The United States Political System and International Leadership: A "Decidedly Inferior" Form of Government?”in G. John Ikenberry, ed. American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays. 5th ed. NY: Longman, 2005. Mansfield, Edward D.; Milner, Helen V.; Rosendorff, B. Peter. 2002. “Why Democracies Cooperate More: Electoral Control and International Trade Agreements,” International Organization, Vol. 56, Issue 3, pp. 477-513.第五週 (10/13)國家價值與國內制度Mansfield, Edward and Jack Snyder, 2002. “Democratic Transitions, Institutional Strength and War,” International Organization, Vol. 56, No. 2, pp. 297-337. Russett, Bruce. 1993. Grasping the Democratic Peace: principles for a post-Cold War world, Princeton, N.J. :Princeton University Press. Chapter 1 and 2.Keohane, Robert. “The Ironies of Sovereignty: The European Union and the United States,” in G. John Ikenberry, ed. American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays. 5th ed. NY: Longman, 2005.第六週 (10/21)觀念的作用一 Idea and Foreign Policy Decision-making (I)Goldstein, Judith and Robert O. Koehane. 1993. “Ideas and foreign policy: an analytical framework,” in Judith Goldstein and Robert O. Keohane, eds., Ideas and Foreign Policy, beliefs, institutions, and political change. Ithaca : Cornell University Press.Yee, Albert S. 1996. “The causal effects of ideas on policies,” International Organization, Vol. 50 Issue 1, pp. 69-108.Larson, Deborah Welch and Alexei Shevchenko, 2003. “Shortcut to Greatness: The New Thinking and the Revo lution in Soviet Foreign Policy,” International Organization, Volume 57, Issue 01, pp 77-109.第七週 (10/28)觀念的作用(續) Idea and Foreign Policy Decision-making (II)Acharya, Amitav. 2004. “How Ideas Spread: Whose Norms Matter? Norm Localization and Institutio nal Change in Asian Regionalism,” International Organization, Volume 58, Issue 02, pp 239-275.Parsons, Craig. 2002. “Showing Ideas as Causes: The Origins of the European Union,” International Organization, Volume 56, Issue 01, pp 47-84.第八週 (11/04)期中考第九週 (11/11)官僚政治與組織 Bureaucracy and Bureaucratic OrganizationAllison, Graham. “Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis,” in G. John Ikenberry, ed. American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays. 5th ed. NY: Longman, 2005.Krasner, Stephen. “Are Bureaucracies Important? (Or Allison Wonderland),” in G. John Ikenberry, ed. American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays.5th ed. NY: Longman, 2005.Allison, Graham T. and Philip D. Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (2nd ed.). Addison Wesley Longman, 1999.第十週 (11/18)認知、信仰與形象的作用 Faith, Belief and ImageJervis, Robert. “Hypotheses on Misperception,” in G. John Ikenberry, ed. American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays. 5th ed. NY: Longman, 2005Tetlock, Philip E. and Charles B. McGuire Jr. “Cognitive Perspectives on Foreign Policy,” in G. John Ikenberry, ed. American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays. 5th ed. NY: Longman, 2005Holsti, Ole R. 2006. Making American Foreign Policy, New York :Routledge,. Chapter 1-3.第十一週 (11/25)個人因素與人格特質 Individual charactersByman, Daniel L. and Kenneth M. Pollack. 2001. “Let Us Now Praise Famous Men: Bringing the Statesman Back In,” International Security, Vol. 25, No. 4, pp.107-146. Sidney Verba. 1961. “Assumptions of Rationality and Non-Rationality in Models of the International System,” World Politics. Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 93-117.Greenstein, Fred. 1998. “Impact of Personality on the End of the Cold War,” Political Psychology, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 1-16.第十二週 (12/02)民意與利益團體 Interests Groups and Public OpinionKacobs, Lawrence R .and B enjamin I. Page. 2005. “Who Influences U.S. Foreign Policy?,” American Political Science Review, Volume 99, Issue 01, Feb 2005, pp 107-123.Barnett, Michael N and Jack S. Levy. 1991. “Domestic sources of alliances and alignments: the case of Egypt, 1962-73,” International Organization, Vol. 45 Issue 3, pp. 369-395.Fordham, Benjamin O. and Timothy J. McKeown. 2003. “Selection and Influence: Interest Groups and Congressional Voting on Trade Policy,” International Organization, Vol. 57, No. 3. pp. 519-549.第十三週 (12/09)案例討論英國對德國的綏靖政策Case study 1, British Appeasement policy toward Nazi germany in the 1930s.Barros, Andrew, Talbot C. Imlay, Evan Resnick, Norrin M. Ripsman, and Jack S. Levy. 2009. “Debating British Decision-making toward Nazi Germany in the 1930s,” International Security, Vol. 34, No. 1, pp. 173–198.Ripsman, Norrin, and Jack S. Levy, 2008. “Wishful Thinking or Buying Time? The Logic of British Appeasement in the 1930s,” International Security, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 148-181.Lobell, Steven E. 2007. “The Second Face of Security: Britain’s ‘Smart’ Appeasement Policy towards Japan and Germany,” International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 73–98.Treisman, Daniel. 2004. “Rational Appeasement,” International Organization, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 345–373.第十四週 (12/16)案例討論中國參與韓戰 Case study 2, China’s intervention on Korea WarHunt, Michael H. 1992. “Beijing and the Korean Crisis, June 1950-June 1951,”Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 107, N o. 3, pp. 453-478.Christensen, Thomas J.1992. “Threats, Assurances, and the Last Chance for Peace: The Lessons of Mao's Korean War Telegrams,”International Security, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 122-154Sergei N. Goncharov, John W. Lewis, and Xue Litai, Uncertain Partners: Stalin, Mao, and the Korean War (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1993),William Stueck, Rethinking the Korean War :A New Diplomatic and Strategic History (Princeton, N.J. :Princeton University Press,2004)沈志華，1996，｢中蘇聯盟與中國出兵朝鮮的決策——對中國和俄國文獻資料的比較研究｣，《當代中國史研究》，1996年第5期，頁26-39。