经典文档 下载后可编辑复制 本份文档包含：关于该选题的外文文献、文献综述 一、外文文献 标题:TheinternationalizationoftheRMB,capitalmarketopenness,andfinancialreforms inChina 作者: Aizenman,Joshua 期刊: BOFIT DiscussionPapers 卷: 4；期: 1；页: 4-26；年份:2015
TheinternationalizationoftheRMB,capitalmarket openness,andfinancialreformsinChina Abstract This paper provides an overview of Chinese financial and trade integrationinrecentdecades,andthechallengesfacingChinainthecomingyears.Chinahadbeenaprimeexampleofexport-
ledgrowth,benefitingfromlearningbydoing,andbyadoptingforeignknow-
how,supportedbyacomplexindustrialpolicy.Whiletheresultant growth has been spectacular, it comes with hidden but growing costs anddistortions. The Chinese exported growth path has been challenged by its ownsuccess,and the Global Financial Crisis forced China toward rebalancing, which is a workinprogress.ReflectingontheinternationalizationoftheCNY,oneexpectstherapidaccelera
ting of the commercial internationalization of the CNY. In contrast, there areno clear-cut reasons to rush with the full CNY financial internationalization: Thegains from CNY financial internationalization areoverrated. Keywords: export led growth, CNY internationalization, mercantilism,financialintegration,FDI. This paper overviews the Chinese financial and tradeintegration in recentdecades. We start by evaluating the history of Chinese growth-cum-financialpolicies,arguingthattheexport-ledgrowthofChina was a highly successful policy, as
hasbeenvividlyillustratedbytheunprecedentedcatchingupofChinesesizewiththeU.S.[either in current dollar or adjusted for PPP]. Yet, the remarkable success ofthisprocess sowed its end, and the need for China to rebalance its economy.Looking 经典文档 下载后可编辑复制 forward,wepointoutthelogicofsequencing financial reforms. Whileone expectsthe rapid acceleration of commercial internationalization of the CNY, and thegrowinguseofCNYinthesphereofChinesecommercialandoutwardFDItransactions,therearenoclear-cutreasonstorushwiththefullCNYinternationalization.Chancesarethat the gains from a rapid CNY financial internationalization are overrated,andignoringthedownsidesofthisprocesswouldbe to Chinese (and probably
global)peril. 1 The buoyant2000s China has been a prime example of export-led growth, benefiting from learningby doing, and by adopting foreign know-how, supported by a complexindustrialpolicy.Thispolicyhas beencharacterizedbycontrolledopenness,and
internalfinancial repression. The financial repression has taxed the saving interestrate,allowing prime borrowers, including the Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE),elastic access to cheap and sustainable funding. FDI has been welcome, subjecttoChina'srulesofthegame.TheserulesleveragedthecarrotofChinesemarketsizeandchea
plabor,inducingtheforeigninvestortooperateinChinainjointventurepartnership with Chinese producers (Holmes et al. 2013). The outcome has beenrapidlearning by doing and transfer of know-how and the rapid climb of China ontheladderofindustrialsophistication,challengingforeignproducersintheChineseandthird-
country markets down theroad.1 Arguably, a modem version of mercantilism has been at work (Aizenman andLee 2007, 2008). The rapid growth and the growing trade and currentaccountsurpluses as a fraction of the GDP has occurred in tandem with massive hoardingofinternational reserves (IR) combined with massive sterilization of expendingtradesurplusesandfinancialinflows.Thesepoliciesaimedatdelayingandslowingthere
alappreciation associated with successful rapid growth. While the resultant growthhasbeenspectacular,itcomeswithhidden,butgrowing,costsanddistortions.Figure1,inthe
top panel, provides diamond chart snapshots of Chinese generalized trilemmaconfiguration: Financial integration (leftward from the diamond's center),Monetaryindependence (vertically upward from the diamond's center), 经典文档 下载后可编辑复制 Exchange rate stability 经典文档
下载后可编辑复制 (rightwardfromthediamond'scenter),andIR/GDP(verticallydownwardfromthediamond's center). The first three scales are capturing Mundell's openeconomytrilemmaconfigurations,normalizedbetween0and1(Aizenman,Chinn,and
Ito2010).TheIR/GDP aimsatcapturingthegrowinguseofinternationalreservestobuffer against financial instability. The chart exhibits the remarkable stability oftheChineseexchangerateduringthe1990sandthe2000s,bufferedbyrapidincreasesinIR/GDP, while maintaining controlled financial integration and monetaryindependence.Figure1alsoputsChineseexperiencein thecontext