代码公司名称分析日期600439.SH瑞贝卡2009-10-12

1、经营活动假设2004200520062007营业收入增长率（YOY)50.19%8.12%40.76%15.00%营业成本 /营业收入80.15%78.22%79.83%73.78%营业税率0.01%0.39%0.41%0.61%销售费用 /营业收入2.36%2.50%1.09%1.39%管理费用 /营业收入2.39%3.60%3.42%2.93%实际税率29.34%29.86%30.32%27.39%少数股东损益/税前利润0.03%0.00%0.02%0.00%股利分配比例55.11%59.13%49.02%26.12%

2、营运资金假设2004200520062007E货币资金 /营业收入15.50%42.85%33.89%

应收帐款周转天数(相对于营业收入)50.9242.5646.56其他应收款/营业收入0.89%0.74%0.75%

应收票据周转天数(相对于营业收入)0.000.000.00存货周转天数(相对于营业成本)256.29134.69176.74

应付票据周转天数(相对于营业成本)0.000.000.00应付帐款周转天数(相对于营业成本)43.158.8218.45预付帐款增加 /营业成本1.38%2.46%5.18%预收帐款(负债)增加 /营业收入0.10%0.26%-0.13%预提费用增加 /营业收入-0.01%-0.05%0.00%其他流动资产增加 /营业收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%其他流动负债增加 /营业收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%其他长期资产增加 /营业收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%其他长期负债增加 /营业收入增加0.00%3.53%0.46%坏帐准备 /应收帐款短期投资跌价准备

历史数据存货跌价准备(含工程亏损准备)长期投资减值准备固定资产减值准备在建工程减值准备

3、投资活动假设2004200520062007I资本开支期末固定资产原值22226.71期末累计折旧3948.94期末固定资产减值准备0.003102.1-678.7619.90无形资产投资长期待摊费用增加固定资产的折旧年限平均为15年残值率为5.00%年折旧率=6.33%新增固定资产折旧率6.00%现有无形资产摊销年限为15年新增无形资产摊销年限为15年现有长期待摊费用摊销年限为10年新增长期待摊费用摊销年限为10年II金融投资及股权投资交易性金融资产投资可供出售金融资产投资持有至到期投资长期股权投资投资性房地产4、融资活动假设2004200520062007贷款银行长期贷款增加额债券或短融期初余额债券发行数量债券偿还可转债期初余额可转换债当期发行/(赎回）可转债当期转股转股价格转股股数股票融资发行股数发行价格发行费用所占比例固定资产投资利率假设a、最低货币资金为营业收入的15.00%b、银行长期贷款利率为5.94%c、短期贷款利率为5.30%d、现金存款利率为0.98%f、债券利率e、可转债利率

5、估值参数相关假设总股本61,649.25流通B股流通A股61,649.25B股股价A股股价9.10汇率

无风险利率Rf=2.25%目标债务比率=45.00%Rm=12.0%长期增长率=2.00%

βe(levered)=1.00税前Kd=4.33%税后Kd=3.25%20082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E0.47%17.48%22.66%15.09%8.52%10.40%10.16%5.95%11.41%70.64%73.28%68.67%66.86%64.90%63.33%62.21%61.21%60.54%0.42%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%3.02%3.50%3.50%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.84%5.00%4.60%4.40%4.30%4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20%10.86%20.00%20.00%20.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%17.57%30.00%35.00%40.00%42.00%44.00%46.00%48.00%50.00%

20082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E27.50%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%

24.7530.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.001.27%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10%

0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00360.75300.00300.00300.00300.00300.00300.00300.00300.00

0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0027.3022.0022.0022.0022.0022.0022.0022.0022.00-4.59%-0.50%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%0.51%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%11.83%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%

明确预测期长期预测期20082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E27363.1331112.0333986.4835923.7037892.3239876.6241868.7743864.8545862.895134.807092.739223.1311469.7613834.5116318.3218921.6621644.7624487.740.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.006813.684000.002000.001000.002000.002000.002000.002000.002000.001000.001000.001000.000.001000.001000.000.001000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

20082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00流通H股H股股价汇率

Ve=561008Vd=50693Ke=12.0%

Ku=11.4%WACC=

8.06%βu(ulevered)=0.94税率=25%2017E2018E6.11%7.72%59.33%58.67%0.40%0.40%3.40%3.40%4.20%4.20%25.00%25.00%0.00%0.00%52.00%54.00%

2017E2018E30.00%30.00%

30.0030.001.10%1.10%

0.000.00300.00300.00

0.000.0022.0022.003.00%3.00%0.50%0.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%5.00%5.00%2017E2018E47361.9148611.4227420.6730428.560.001.001000.001000.000.001000.000.000.00

0000000000

2017E2018E0.000.000.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.000.000.00