󰀕30󰀛󰀕3󰀁2015󰀆6󰀐󰀓󰀇󰀃󰀔󰀆󰀈JOURNALOFSYSTEMSENGINEERINGVol.30No.3Jun.2015

󰀅󰀂󰀂󰀁󰀃󰀅󰀂󰀇󰀂󰀂󰀆󰀃󰀅󰀁󰀂󰀇

󰀃󰀄󰀂1,󰀁󰀁󰀄1,󰀂󰀁󰀃2,󰀃󰀃󰀈1

(1.󰀏󰀏󰀉󰀆󰀐󰀆󰀈,󰀏󰀙300071;2.󰀏󰀙󰀉󰀆󰀈󰀆󰀈,󰀏󰀙300072)

󰀃󰀁:󰀅󰀃󰀃󰀁󰀂󰀄󰀂󰀅󰀁󰀃󰀂󰀄,󰀇󰀃󰀂󰀅󰀂󰀄󰀃󰀃󰀂󰀃󰀃󰀄󰀄󰀁󰀁󰀈,󰀅󰀃󰀄󰀂󰀅󰀁󰀆󰀁󰀁󰀂󰀁󰀁󰀁󰀅󰀃󰀂󰀅󰀁󰀆󰀂󰀁󰀇󰀂󰀅󰀄;󰀄󰀂󰀂󰀃󰀁󰀂󰀆󰀄󰀇󰀁󰀄󰀃󰀁󰀂󰀂󰀃󰀁󰀂󰀄󰀂󰀄󰀇󰀆󰀂󰀁󰀇󰀂󰀅.󰀃󰀄󰀅󰀁󰀄,󰀁󰀁󰀄󰀇󰀆󰀂󰀆󰀉󰀂󰀄󰀅󰀁󰀄󰀁󰀄󰀂󰀁󰀇󰀂󰀅󰀄󰀂󰀄,󰀃󰀁󰀂󰀄󰀇󰀆󰀂󰀆󰀆󰀄󰀃󰀉󰀂󰀄󰀂󰀆󰀃󰀂󰀆󰀃󰀂󰀃󰀃󰀅󰀅󰀂󰀁󰀂,󰀂󰀁󰀂󰀁󰀊󰀆󰀂󰀃󰀄󰀃󰀁󰀅󰀄.󰀁󰀃󰀂󰀂󰀄󰀇󰀆󰀂󰀉󰀂󰀄󰀂󰀃󰀆󰀅󰀁󰀂󰀁,󰀂󰀂󰀃󰀁󰀁󰀂󰀊󰀄󰀂󰀅󰀁󰀂󰀁󰀅󰀁󰀂󰀅.

󰀆󰀂󰀁:󰀆󰀊󰀉󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃;󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀑󰀂;󰀓󰀇󰀔󰀗󰀆;󰀆󰀊󰀉󰀒󰀚;󰀙󰀄󰀍󰀃󰀃󰀄󰀂󰀁:C931;X913.4󰀁󰀃󰀂󰀁󰀂:A󰀁󰀅󰀅󰀁:1000−5781(2015)03−0306−13

doi:10.13383/j.cnki.jse.2015.03.003

Modelingtheevolutionofemergencybasedonsystemdynamics

LiYongjian1,QiaoXiaojiao1,SunXiaochen2,LiChunyan1

(1.BusinessSchool,NankaiUniversity,Tianjin300071,China;2.SchoolofScience,TianjinUniversity,Tianjin300072,China)

Abstract:Duetothespecialcharacteristicslikeexplosive,uncertaintyofevolutionandenvironmentalcom-plexity,thispaperdefinestheevolutionmodelofemergencychainanddescribesfourbasicevolutionmodes.Basedontheemergencystructuraldescriptionframework,itinvestigatestheevolutionofunconventionalearth-quakeunderthecollectedearthquakecases.ThenwiththedataofTangjiashandammed-lakederivedfromtheWenchuanEarthquake,thispaperperformsanumericalsimulationbyusingsystemdynamics.Theresearchresultsverifythefeasibilityandvalidityofthisstudy.Finally,somesuggestionsareproposedtodealwithdammed-lake.

Keywords:emergency;emergencyevolution;systemdynamics;unconventionalearthquake;dammed-lake

1󰀃󰀁

󰀌󰀇󰀞󰀍󰀓󰀒󰀁󰀓󰀋󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀈󰀅,󰀖󰀑󰀇󰀆󰀊󰀉󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀅󰀎󰀥󰀋󰀅󰀎󰀇,󰀡󰀇󰀋󰀌󰀢󰀡󰀃󰀒󰀎󰀋󰀎

󰀉,󰀧󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀎󰀒󰀃󰀈󰀁󰀗󰀊󰀟󰀢󰀄󰀈󰀊󰀈.󰀙󰀎󰀆󰀡󰀃󰀅󰀃󰀑󰀂󰀢󰀆󰀕󰀆󰀋󰀁󰀖󰀝󰀋󰀃󰀄󰀞󰀍󰀉󰀐󰀊󰀈

󰀢󰀠󰀠󰀁󰀏󰀒󰀖󰀋.󰀏󰀎,󰀂󰀆󰀒󰀈󰀊󰀆󰀊󰀉󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃,󰀟󰀎󰀡󰀃󰀅󰀃󰀑󰀂󰀉󰀁󰀧󰀎󰀜󰀠󰀠󰀢󰀋󰀟󰀑󰀁.

󰀋󰀇,󰀆󰀅󰀆󰀑󰀆󰀅󰀚󰀠󰀉󰀆󰀊󰀉󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀇󰀡󰀃󰀅󰀃󰀑󰀂󰀒󰀔󰀡󰀇󰀕󰀠󰀠,󰀡󰀆󰀕󰀡󰀃󰀚󰀅,󰀡󰀇,󰀡

󰀠󰀙󰀡󰀇󰀢󰀓󰀑󰀕󰀉:󰀗󰀈󰀄󰀆󰀢󰀠󰀠󰀎󰀐󰀆󰀉󰀆󰀊󰀉󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀠󰀠[1];󰀇󰀋󰀁󰀇󰀝󰀠󰀠󰀑󰀁󰀓󰀍󰀆󰀆

󰀊󰀉󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀄󰀋󰀊󰀆󰀠󰀠[2−4];󰀑󰀑󰀡󰀃󰀅󰀃󰀩󰀁󰀢󰀚󰀠󰀕󰀗,󰀉󰀤󰀡󰀇󰀉󰀡󰀃󰀗󰀅󰀇󰀌󰀎󰀎󰀒󰀓󰀔󰀊

󰀓󰀇󰀄󰀢󰀠󰀠[5,6];󰀍󰀂󰀑󰀡󰀠󰀃󰀈󰀎󰀒󰀒󰀎,󰀟󰀁󰀎󰀤󰀊󰀅󰀕󰀢󰀖󰀂[7−11];󰀋󰀗󰀑󰀡󰀇󰀎󰀒󰀤󰀞,󰀑󰀏󰀋󰀋󰀕3󰀁󰀋󰀖󰀄󰀃:󰀑󰀑󰀓󰀇󰀔󰀗󰀆󰀢󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀑󰀂󰀅󰀨307

󰀎󰀒󰀊󰀓󰀢󰀠󰀠[12−18];󰀗󰀇󰀑󰀆󰀊󰀉󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀢󰀊󰀅󰀃󰀑󰀂󰀈󰀚,󰀠󰀠󰀆󰀊󰀉󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀎󰀎󰀊󰀁,󰀅

󰀃󰀑󰀂󰀉󰀁[19−21]󰀃.

󰀌󰀇󰀠󰀠󰀗󰀈󰀅󰀎󰀑󰀉󰀆󰀊󰀉󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀍󰀆󰀄󰀈,󰀄󰀛,󰀄󰀞󰀗󰀇󰀖󰀑󰀇󰀆󰀊󰀉󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀓󰀑󰀩󰀁󰀡󰀇

󰀁󰀗󰀇󰀥󰀋󰀌󰀢󰀒󰀎,󰀋󰀒󰀉󰀅󰀋󰀏󰀊󰀡󰀃󰀐󰀒󰀢󰀎󰀉󰀄󰀍.󰀈󰀧󰀝󰀆󰀜󰀆󰀂󰀑󰀉󰀆󰀊󰀉󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀎󰀇󰀄

󰀈󰀍󰀆󰀈󰀃󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀋󰀌󰀢󰀏,󰀅󰀥,󰀆󰀊󰀉󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀖󰀏󰀓󰀢󰀒󰀜󰀎󰀐󰀒󰀅󰀆󰀄󰀂󰀌󰀆󰀑󰀡󰀃󰀉󰀐󰀄󰀆󰀩󰀁

󰀁,󰀏󰀎,󰀗󰀈󰀍󰀜󰀂󰀛󰀑󰀌󰀃󰀎󰀇󰀢󰀄󰀈󰀍󰀆󰀋󰀢󰀗󰀓󰀕󰀢󰀅󰀃󰀑󰀂󰀊󰀆󰀃󰀁󰀆󰀕󰀐󰀔󰀃.󰀗󰀌󰀈󰀌󰀍󰀑

󰀁,󰀠󰀁󰀙󰀠󰀁󰀢󰀠󰀠󰀁󰀓󰀅󰀖,󰀏󰀊󰀁󰀏󰀓󰀪󰀋󰀢󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀑󰀂󰀎󰀎󰀒󰀟󰀁󰀠󰀠.

󰀑󰀑󰀎,󰀚󰀇󰀃󰀒󰀄󰀓󰀊󰀆,󰀉󰀅󰀏󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀩󰀋,󰀘󰀘󰀆󰀔󰀕󰀕󰀆󰀏󰀕󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀁󰀇󰀂󰀊󰀋󰀁󰀕,󰀜

󰀈󰀎󰀁󰀕󰀅󰀛󰀏󰀆󰀊󰀉󰀉󰀅󰀒󰀚󰀇󰀃󰀐󰀎,󰀍󰀎󰀡󰀃󰀅󰀃󰀉󰀁.󰀙󰀇,󰀃󰀒󰀊󰀆󰀜󰀁󰀡󰀃󰀏󰀙󰀃󰀎󰀩󰀋󰀢󰀆

󰀅󰀁󰀘󰀕󰀕,󰀍󰀆󰀏󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀓󰀁󰀑󰀂󰀕󰀕,󰀘󰀗󰀍󰀛󰀟󰀁󰀅󰀑󰀩󰀋󰀕󰀉󰀈󰀂󰀡󰀃󰀏󰀙󰀢󰀋󰀏󰀜󰀓.󰀃

󰀇,󰀗󰀒󰀚󰀍󰀎󰀢󰀙󰀄󰀍󰀡󰀃󰀗󰀓󰀡󰀇󰀓󰀇󰀔󰀗󰀆󰀄󰀅󰀂󰀆,󰀉󰀂󰀆󰀁󰀏󰀢󰀊󰀆󰀗󰀁󰀅󰀒󰀎󰀉󰀎󰀆󰀡󰀃󰀆󰀋

󰀕󰀞󰀕,󰀜󰀗󰀃󰀅󰀆󰀨󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀎󰀒󰀃󰀎󰀆󰀋󰀕󰀁󰀗󰀌󰀢󰀑󰀝.

2󰀂󰀂󰀆󰀃󰀁󰀂󰀁󰀁󰀂

󰀗󰀇󰀄󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀁󰀇󰀂󰀊󰀋󰀁󰀕,󰀚󰀠󰀠󰀃󰀆󰀕󰀋󰀒2001󰀆󰀅󰀌“9·11”󰀆󰀒󰀑󰀎󰀡󰀃,2003󰀆SARS

󰀡󰀃,2004󰀆󰀉󰀠󰀘󰀒󰀚󰀕󰀈,2008󰀆󰀠󰀌󰀂󰀄󰀒󰀚,2011󰀎󰀋󰀚󰀉󰀒󰀚󰀗󰀇󰀇󰀓󰀋󰀘󰀐󰀃󰀇󰀁󰀢12󰀓󰀞

󰀨󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃(󰀡󰀆󰀕󰀉󰀙,󰀃󰀚󰀐󰀍󰀕󰀉)󰀜󰀡󰀇󰀄󰀓󰀊󰀆.󰀉󰀄󰀓󰀣󰀈,󰀍󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀊󰀋󰀗󰀐󰀑󰀋󰀞󰀡󰀃

󰀁,󰀅󰀏󰀩󰀋󰀢󰀍󰀩󰀋󰀆󰀔.󰀗󰀈󰀩󰀋󰀇󰀡󰀃󰀊󰀑󰀒󰀔󰀠󰀢󰀆󰀅󰀁󰀘,󰀍󰀃󰀝󰀊󰀗󰀖󰀑󰀩󰀋󰀅󰀐:󰀡󰀃󰀆

󰀨,󰀜󰀂󰀩󰀋,󰀑󰀩󰀩󰀋,󰀆󰀘󰀩󰀋󰀎󰀓󰀘󰀍󰀐󰀩󰀋.󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀁󰀇󰀂󰀊󰀋󰀁󰀕󰀖󰀄[22]:

󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃={{󰀡󰀃󰀆󰀨},{󰀜󰀂󰀩󰀋},{󰀑󰀩󰀩󰀋},{󰀆󰀘󰀩󰀋},{󰀓󰀘󰀍󰀐󰀩󰀋}}.

󰀉󰀓󰀁󰀇󰀐󰀁󰀈󰀉󰀍󰀖󰀄:

1)󰀡󰀃󰀆󰀨

󰀄󰀊󰀗󰀊󰀇󰀨󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀎󰀣󰀇󰀨󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃.󰀃󰀊󰀆󰀓󰀈󰀧,󰀡󰀃󰀇󰀚󰀁󰀆󰀘󰀠󰀇󰀂󰀢󰀉󰀒󰀔󰀠;󰀡󰀃󰀅

󰀎󰀈󰀆󰀎󰀇󰀏󰀢󰀒󰀔󰀧󰀗󰀂󰀍󰀝󰀗󰀊󰀑󰀗󰀇󰀣󰀥󰀙󰀁󰀡󰀃󰀇󰀜󰀧󰀗󰀗󰀈󰀝󰀗󰀏󰀆󰀟󰀉󰀐󰀒.󰀏󰀎,󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃

󰀢󰀡󰀃󰀆󰀨󰀗󰀈󰀗󰀈󰀡󰀅󰀃󰀘󰀕󰀗󰀍󰀆.

2)󰀜󰀂󰀩󰀋

󰀜󰀂󰀩󰀋󰀧󰀕󰀦󰀟󰀆󰀡󰀃󰀝󰀄󰀔󰀠󰀢󰀁󰀏󰀏󰀆,󰀧󰀌󰀐󰀡󰀃󰀁󰀏󰀐󰀒󰀏󰀆󰀢󰀜󰀂󰀙󰀠.󰀊󰀇󰀨󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀜

󰀂󰀩󰀋󰀎󰀡󰀆󰀎󰀒󰀟󰀁󰀢󰀊󰀑󰀉󰀅󰀎󰀊󰀑󰀋󰀊;󰀣󰀇󰀨󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀜󰀂󰀩󰀋󰀎󰀂󰀕󰀁󰀊󰀋󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀋󰀘󰀋󰀃

󰀈,󰀉󰀍󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀝󰀄󰀔󰀠󰀋󰀅󰀆󰀋󰀎󰀒󰀟󰀁󰀢󰀑󰀆󰀓󰀈.

3)󰀑󰀩󰀩󰀋

󰀑󰀩󰀩󰀋󰀧󰀂󰀍󰀍󰀛󰀜󰀂󰀩󰀋󰀉󰀡󰀃󰀡󰀇󰀌󰀉󰀅󰀛󰀢󰀁󰀏󰀏󰀆.󰀣󰀇󰀨󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀑󰀩󰀩󰀋󰀧󰀝󰀁󰀏󰀏󰀆

󰀠󰀑󰀜󰀂󰀩󰀋󰀅,󰀂󰀍󰀃󰀒󰀃󰀙󰀇󰀂󰀐󰀒󰀡󰀃󰀝󰀄󰀔󰀠󰀢󰀩󰀋;󰀊󰀇󰀨󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀑󰀩󰀩󰀋󰀧󰀝󰀂󰀍󰀃󰀒󰀐󰀒󰀜

󰀂󰀩󰀋󰀢󰀁󰀙󰀙󰀐󰀒󰀡󰀃󰀅󰀃,󰀑󰀂󰀢󰀡󰀃󰀁󰀏󰀏󰀆.

4)󰀆󰀘󰀩󰀋

󰀆󰀘󰀩󰀋󰀧󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀅󰀏󰀏󰀆,󰀃󰀒󰀐󰀒󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀜󰀂󰀩󰀋󰀎󰀑󰀩󰀩󰀋󰀙󰀉󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀅󰀃󰀑󰀂󰀎󰀡󰀃󰀇

󰀏󰀢󰀝󰀄󰀔󰀠󰀆󰀎󰀐󰀒.

5)󰀓󰀘󰀍󰀐󰀩󰀋

󰀓󰀘󰀍󰀐󰀩󰀋󰀧󰀝󰀍󰀐󰀉󰀅󰀡󰀃󰀅󰀎󰀥󰀄󰀂󰀊󰀠󰀓󰀘󰀢󰀅󰀏󰀉󰀅.󰀃󰀒󰀚󰀅󰀐󰀩󰀋󰀢󰀕󰀆󰀖󰀐󰀊󰀉󰀅

󰀡󰀃󰀢󰀇󰀏,󰀕󰀆󰀫󰀟󰀊󰀑,󰀑󰀆󰀟󰀁󰀢󰀋󰀊.󰀏󰀎,󰀚󰀩󰀋󰀆󰀉󰀡󰀃󰀆󰀨󰀢󰀓󰀘󰀔󰀠󰀃󰀄.